Monthly Archives: April 2026

The Sour New Hampshire Electorate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 2, 2026

New Hampshire Polling

A local college recently tested the attitudes of New Hampshire voters regarding policy issues and their elected officials and found a seemingly embittered sampling universe.

Yet, even with such pessimistic perceptions, the respondents’ choices pertaining to candidate preference remain surprisingly consistent with past voting patterns. Based upon the issue responses, one would have guessed the Democrats would be opening a wide lead, but such is not the case.

The St. Anselm’s College poll (March 16-18; 1,491 registered New Hampshire voters; online) tested several races on the New Hampshire ballot. In the open US Senate race, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), who has successfully positioned himself as the consensus Democratic candidate, leads former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) by only a 46-43 percent clip. If former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown were the Republican nominee, the ballot test would favor Rep. Pappas, 47-38 percent.

Emerson College released their new New Hampshire survey (March 21-23; 1,000 likely New Hampshire general election voters; multiple sampling techniques), conducted after St. Anselm’s, and the pollsters find the Senate general election candidates floating in the same range, but even closer. Looking at the Emerson Senate ballot test results, Pappas holds only a 45-44 percent edge over Sununu, and tops Brown 48-39 percent.

The Emerson Republican primary split (524 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters tested) also projects a stronger Sununu lead against Brown, 48-19 percent. St. Anselm’s saw a 49-28 percent Republican primary split in favor of Sununu.

In the Governor’s race, St. Anselm’s projects incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R), who is seeking a second two-year term this year, to hold a 46-39 percent advantage over former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D). If business owner Jon Kiper were the Democratic nominee, Gov. Ayotte’s lead would be 45-31 percent.

In the 2nd Congressional District campaign, St. Anselm’s tested the rematch between freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) and 2024 GOP nominee Lily Tang Williams. The results found Rep. Goodlander not surprisingly leading the 2026 contest, 48-36 percent. In 2024, Goodlander defeated Williams, 51-45 percent in their open seat contest.

All of the numbers seem consistent with where one would guess the races lie based upon New Hampshire voter history, but understanding that the previous voting trends are in and of themselves somewhat inconsistent.

Republicans haven’t done particularly well in the state during this century – President Trump has lost here three times, for example – but the Sununu family has prospered. Former Gov. Chris Sununu was elected four consecutive times. John E. Sununu, while losing the 2008 Senate race against Jeanne Shaheen in the Obama landslide year, was still elected to the House three times and once to the US Senate.

Therefore, the ballot test numbers appear legitimate, and since both St. Anselm’s and Emerson fall into the same range on the Senate race (Emerson did not test the down ballot races), it is reasonable to surmise that the surveys fall within the proper accuracy realm.

Where the ballot test numbers and the policy responses seem at odds pertain to the entire sample’s tone. All of the questions, from the Trump approval rating (42 percent positive; 58 percent negative) to the Iran War (40 percent approve; 58 percent disapprove), to believing the country is on the wrong track (34 percent right track; 61 percent wrong track), and New Hampshire is also on the wrong track (36 percent right track; 50 percent wrong track) suggest that the electorate is ready to replace incumbent party en masse.

Additionally, none of the tested elected officials even as individuals are positively viewed (Trump: 42:58 positive to negative; VP J.D. Vance: 42:56; Sec of State Marco Rubio: 44:53; Gov. Kelly Ayotte: 48:48; Rep. Chris Pappas: 46:46).

These cumulative responses and the Democrats holding a 49 to 41 percent edge on the congressional ballot test (if the election for Congress were held today, for which candidate would you likely vote: Democratic, Republican, Other, Unsure) would lead an observer to believe that the Democrats have a clear advantage in the state. As you have seen on the individual questions, however, when asked about their specific voter preference, in most cases the Democratic advantage is either narrow or non-existent.

While the current period is clearly a negative one for the Trump Administration and the GOP congressional leadership, and most certainly believed as such in New Hampshire, the representative polling sample fails to indicate a strong commitment to ousting the Republicans.

With still months to go before the general election, Republicans have time to rebound and likely will if things progress positively in Iran and with the national economy. In any event, the closing weeks associated with these midterm elections promise to deliver many more surprises.

In SC-1, It’s Mark Sanford … Again

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 1, 2026

US HOUSE

Former South Carolina Governor and ex-Rep. Mark Sanford (R)

The open campaign to replace South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) became more interesting as candidate filing closed on Monday.

Among the late entries is former Governor and ex-1st District Congressman Mark Sanford (R) who served bookend stints in the House before and after his eight years as South Carolina’s chief executive. Toward the end of his gubernatorial tenure, Sanford’s career was marked with an international extramarital affair involving a South American woman that became a national news story. Despite the adverse publicity, he was able to finish his term as Governor and would subsequently again win the 1st District US House seat.

Sanford was first elected to Congress in an open seat 1994 campaign pledging to serve only three terms. He fulfilled his campaign pledge by not seeking re-election in 2000, but then ran for Governor, winning the statewide post both in 2002 and 2006. He was thought to be planning a presidential run in 2012, but the nationwide affair publicity ended any hope of him becoming a serious presidential candidate.

In 2013, after then-Gov. Nikki Haley (R) appointed then-Congressman Tim Scott to the US Senate to replace resigned Sen. Jim DeMint (R), Sanford entered the open special election for the 1st Congressional District and surprised many by again winning the seat. He would then be re-elected to full terms in 2014 and 2016. He would lose renomination in 2018, however. Sanford had become an ardent critic of President Trump, which in large measure cost him the seat.

Again, sounding the theme of opposing the large deficit spending that Congress approves, Sanford this week launched his third open seat campaign for the 1st District seat. The CD is open in 2026 because incumbent Rep. Mace is running for Governor.

In addition to Sanford, a dozen other Republicans also filed their campaign committees, meaning we will see a spirited campaign develop as the large field of contenders rush toward the June 9 primary. South Carolina features a run-off nomination system, as do many of the southern states, but the Palmetto State version is unique. While most feature a month-long runoff cycle or longer, South Carolina allows only a two-week campaign. Therefore, the runoff is scheduled for June 23.

Sanford clearly has more name identification than any other current 1st District candidate and again could prove victorious. Within the field we see four sitting elected officials: state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Daniel Island), Dorchester County Councilman Jay Byars, Beaufort County Councilman Logan Cunningham, and Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Honeycutt. Another significant candidate, physician Sam McCown, self-funded and raised over $1.2 million before year-end 2025, while Rep. Smith amassed just over $600,000, also as the previous year ended.

It is likely that Rep. Smith is the strongest within the candidate group in addition to Sanford. Coupled with credible fundraising, Smith has assembled a wide array of endorsements that include former 1st District Congressmen Henry Brown and Tommy Hartnett. It wouldn’t be surprising to see he and Sanford qualify for the runoff election.

Considering that Sanford was a vocal anti-Trumper earlier in his career, it is likely that the President will look elsewhere for a candidate to support, possibly Rep. Smith, if he decides to get involved in the race. The Trump endorsement is still a prize in most Republican primaries.

South Carolina’s 1st District occupies the southern portion of the state’s Atlantic coastline, beginning just above the Georgia border and stretching halfway toward North Carolina. The CD contains Beaufort and Berkeley Counties along with parts of Charleston, Colleton and Dorchester, and a sliver of Jasper County. While housing approximately 45 percent of Charleston County, it contains none of the city of Charleston. The 1st CD includes the Low Country islands along with the Hilton Head, Bluffton, Beaufort, Moncks Corner, and Mount Pleasant communities.

Politically, SC-1 is reliably Republican. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation is 55.6R – 42.6D. In 2024, President Trump carried SC-1 with a 55.7 – 42.7 percent victory margin.

The 1st District has been in Republican hands since the 1980 election, with only Democrat Joe Cunningham winning the seat in a 2018 upset. He would lose re-election to Mace in 2020. Since unseating Rep. Cunningham in 2020 by 5,415 votes, Rep. Mace’s average win percentage in her two re-election campaigns has been 57.3 percent.