Monthly Archives: October 2025

New Pappas-Sununu Data

Click on image to see full poll results.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025

Senate

The University of New Hampshire just released another of their regular Granite State polls, and we see further evidence of a budding competitive open New Hampshire US Senate contest between Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R), son of former Governor and White House Chief of Staff John Sununu and brother of four-term New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu.

The UNH poll (Sept. 17-23; 1,361 New Hampshire adults; 1,235 likely general election voters; 529 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Pappas leading a ballot test question with ex-Sen. Sununu 49-43 percent, but the sampling universe leans more Democratic than the actual voting data suggests. Therefore, it is likely that Sununu is a bit closer to Pappas than this spread foretells.

If ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), who ran for the New Hampshire Senate seat in 2014 and lost to now-retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 51-48 percent, were the 2026 Republican nominee the Pappas lead would grow to 52-37 percent. On the current Republican Senate primary ballot test, Sununu posts a landslide lead over Brown, 42-19 percent.

Several data points provide evidence that the poll skews somewhat Democratic, though the answers have been weighted to balance the responses, at least to a degree.

The skew clues come from several questions. In terms of setting the sampling parameters, the official state voter registration party preference categorization totals 32.0 percent Republican, 28.3 percent Democratic, and 39.7 percent Unaffiliated voters. Total registration is recorded at 1,099,033 individuals.

The UNH poll divides the party identification categories into two different questions. First, is the partisan-registered voter query, and this number is consistent with the official state voter reg totals. In the poll, the self-identified partisan total is 32-29-39 percent Republican, Democratic, and Unaffiliated voters.

A second “Party ID” cell segmentation, however, asks an additional question, and the responses swing toward the Democrats with a 44-41-14 percent partisan division (Democratic; Republican; Unaffiliated). It is surmised that the pollsters are attempting to see how the unaffiliateds break, which explains the partisan switch and the severe reduction from the actual number of Unaffiliated registered voters (39 percent) to those who self-identify as Unaffiliated (14 percent).

Such a partisan break is seemingly consistent with New Hampshire’s federal election results even though the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations suggest a very different pattern.

In terms of the statewide partisan lean, DRA calculates a 52.0R – 45.2D party break. While the federal delegation (two Senators, two Representatives) is unanimously Democratic, the Republicans back home enjoy a statewide trifecta (Governor; majorities in both legislative houses). Thus, the voting split between federal and state offices is diametrically opposed. Together, these points largely explain the high number of close elections seen in the state over the past few years.

Perhaps the most definitive skew clue is the reported presidential vote within the polling sample. In the 2024 election, the actual vote count found then-Vice President Kamala Harris defeating then-former President Donald Trump with a 50.3 – 47.6 percent victory margin.

According to the poll respondents the presidential break is 51-45 percent in Harris’s favor; hence, these calculations suggest the 49-43 percent Pappas swing is potentially 2-3 percentage points closer.

Rep. Pappas was first elected to the House in 2018 after serving six years on the New Hampshire Executive Council [a unique five-member panel elected in districts that retains certain veto powers over the Governor relating to budget matters and personnel appointments], four years as Hillsborough (Manchester) County Treasurer, and four years in the state House of Representatives.

Pappas, in his four US House terms, has turned what was the most volatile congressional district in the United States (from 2004 thru 2016, NH-1 had defeated more incumbents that any CD in the country), into a safe domain for himself, thus bringing some political stabilization to the eastern New Hampshire area.

John E. Sununu was elected to the 1st District US House seat in 1996 and held the position for three terms. He was elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating then-Gov. Shaheen. Six years later, Shaheen returned to challenge Sen. Sununu, and successfully unseated him. She, of course, was then re-elected in 2014 and 2020.

Assuming Sununu enters the 2026 US Senate race, and all indications suggest he will, the New Hampshire open seat moves into the highly competitive category. Without Sununu as the GOP nominee, Rep. Pappas, who adroitly has positioned himself as the consensus Democratic candidate long before the state’s late September 8th primary, would see a clear path toward succeeding Sen. Shaheen.

A Serious Pelosi Challenge?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025

House

Saikat Chakrabarti

Saikat Chakrabarti, a Democratic challenger to Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), released an internal poll that he says positions him to end her congressional career. Pelosi, who was elected to the House in 1987 after being the California Democratic Party chair, began her tenure after winning a special election victory in ’87 that would eventually lead to eight years directing the US House.

Chakrabarti quarterbacked Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s shocking upset 2018 Democratic primary victory over veteran New York Rep. Joe Crowley and now believes he can engineer a similar result for himself against a Democratic Party icon.

A Chakrabarti campaign poll from Beacon Research (Sept. 12-20; 600 likely California June jungle primary voters; text and live interview) finds Rep. Pelosi leading Chakrabarti 47-34 percent. After the respondents are read push questions featuring the 85-year-old incumbent’s age and whether or not a new generation of Democratic leadership should come to power, the ballot test then flips to 44-36 percent in Chakrabarti’s favor.

Though the poll could arguably be within the realm of accuracy at this early date, the results should not be taken particularly seriously. Most importantly, we are not looking at a Democratic primary battle on June 2. Instead, California uses the top-two jungle primary system that places all candidates on the same ballot irrespective of political party affiliation. The top two finishers in what is ostensibly a qualifying election then advance into the general election regardless of the percentages attained on the initial vote.

Thus, to think Rep. Pelosi would not advance into the general election under this system is absurd considering her consecutive 20 congressional election win streak from her San Francisco-anchored CD.

The general election will yield an entirely different campaign because the turnout will be much larger in the November election, which benefits the former Speaker. Thus, it will not be enough for Chakrabarti to outpace Pelosi in the lower turnout June election because both contenders would advance into the general no matter what their attained percentages.

It is already becoming clear, however, that we will see a number of intra-party challenges to aging Democratic incumbents around the country from younger candidates. Several, such as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH; 78 years old), and Reps. Danny Davis (D-IL; 84), and Jan Schakowsky (D-IL; 81), have already announced their retirements in the face of potential challengers who said they would use the “new generation of leadership” theme.

Others looking at serious challenges and facing the same theme are Reps. John Larson (D-CT; 77) and David Scott (D-GA; 80). Other Democratic members who are 75 years old or older and are seeking re-election may have nomination challengers, but the opposition at this point does not look particularly strong. This list includes two past leadership members, Reps. Steny Hoyer, (D-MD; 86) and Jim Clyburn, (D-SC; 85), along with Reps. Maxine Waters (D-CA; 87) and Frederica Wilson (D-FL; 82).

While Rep. Pelosi has filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission, she has yet to formally announce her re-election candidacy. It is presumed, however, that she will seek a 21st term.

The California Congresswoman’s 11th District, fully contained on the San Francisco peninsula, is one of the most Democratic seats in the country. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the CA-11 partisan lean is 86.6D – 11.6R. In California, only two districts are more Democratic, and only by a point or two. The pair are the Oakland seat of freshman Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) along with two-term Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove’s (D) Los Angeles domain.

Should voters approve the proposed California redistricting map in the Nov. 4 special election, the three strongest Democratic districts will remain virtually intact. This means that Pelosi’s general election opponent will almost assuredly be a Democrat, and very likely Chakrabarti.

Assuming the former Speaker runs for re-election, the chances of Chakrabarti or any other Democrat dethroning her are minimal at best. Therefore, though an early poll such as his Beacon Research study may suggest a modicum of weakness for the long-time House member, the final vote will again return her for yet another term.