By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 2, 2025
House
Five-term Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha)
At his media event, according to Fox News’s reporting, Rep. Bacon said, “After 30 years in the Air Force and 10 years in Congress, it’s time to spend my future with the love of my life, our four kids, and our wonderful grandchildren. Thank you, Nebraska!”
The Cornhusker State’s 2nd District has attracted a great deal of attention in the last two presidential election years. Like Maine, Nebraska apportions its electoral votes meaning that each congressional district – the state has three – casts its own vote as opposed to the winner-take-all process that the other 48 states utilize.
In both 2020 and 2024, NE-2 voted for the Democratic nominee against President Trump, thus awarding one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes to the opposite party’s national candidate. Naturally, this history suggests the open 2nd District could become the House Democrats’ top national conversion target in the 2026 election.
In the 2024 election, Kamala Harris topped President Trump by 14,636 votes in the 2nd District, but Rep. Bacon rebounded from the Republican top of the ticket loss to win re-election with a 5,829 vote spread. Four years earlier in the 2020 election, President Biden captured the 2nd District with a 22,091-vote margin, yet Rep. Bacon again rebounded to win re-election, this time by almost reversing the presidential deficit. He defeated Democrat Kara Eastman with a 15,365-vote spread.
The 2nd District is comprised of Douglas (Omaha) and Saunders counties along with approximately 25 percent of Sarpy County. Douglas County, however, is becoming more Democratic as further evidenced when John Ewing Jr. (D) ousted three-term Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert (R) earlier this year.
For a different Republican to keep the 2nd District, he or she will have to emulate Rep. Bacon’s totals in Douglas County to secure victory. No Republican has recently carried Douglas, but the new GOP nominee will have to keep the deficit margin within the district’s largest county to the same level as did Rep. Bacon.
For example, in the 2024 election, President Trump lost the county by 27,814 votes, Sen. Deb Fischer (R) suffered a much larger Douglas County defeat (46,101 votes), and even Senator and former Gov. Pete Ricketts trailed in the county by 14,530 ballots while scoring a strong 63-37 percent victory statewide. In the 2022 election, Gov. Jim Pillen (R) also lost the county, down 9,492 votes yet won the statewide tally with a 59-36 percent margin.
In 2024, Rep. Bacon found himself down 10,314 votes in Douglas County, 4,692 in 2022, and 1,597 in 2020 yet repeatedly won the 2nd CD. Therefore, for the next Republican nominee to hold the seat, the vote deficit level coming from Douglas County must be aligned with Rep. Bacon’s performance and no other Republican candidate.
In the past two elections, then-state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Bacon. It was clear after him losing again in 2024, especially with Harris carrying the seat in the same vote, that the Democratic leadership would move to a new candidate in 2026.
At this point, and the list will now likely grow, four Democrats have announced their candidacies, led by state Sen. John J. Cavanaugh, IV (D-Omaha), whose father, John J. Cavanaugh III, (D) held the congressional seat for two terms during the 1977-81 period. The others are attorney John Argyrakis, surgeon Mark Johnston, and political consultant Denise Powell.
On the Republican side, two names are surfacing early as potential candidates, those of Douglas County Sheriff Aaron Hanson and former state Sen. Brett Lindstrom.
The 2nd District race will again be expensive. Counting all candidate and external spending in 2024, an aggregate $34 million-plus was spent. In an open seat contest, expect that total expenditure figure to grow.
Rep. Bacon’s announcement means there are 17 (8R; 9D) open US House seats headed into the next election, but his is only the second retirement. Three members have passed away and the other 12 are leaving the House to run for another office.
Turning to the Senate, two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) announcing his retirement over the weekend means seven seats will be open in the 2026 election. In that body only one member, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), is leaving to run for another office. The rest are retiring from politics.
