Daily Archives: October 14, 2010

Will Delaware Save the Senate for Democrats?

In the Senate, the latest Delaware polls continue to show Democrat Chris Coons leading controversial Republican nominee Christine O’Donnell in a race that may well save the Democratic majority. With California (Barbara Boxer) and West Virginia (Gov. Joe Manchin vs. John Raese) now trending better for Democrats, and Colorado, Illinois, and Washington in pure toss-up mode, it will be very difficult for the GOP to claim the Senate majority largely because they have so many of their own seats to defend.

Thus, entering the final phase of campaign 2010, it is more than conceivable that the Republicans will secure enough Democratic conversion seats to secure a working House majority and end the Senate cycle with between 47-49 members.

Turning to the states, the GOP is in position to command 30+ Governors, and could possibly gain a record number of state legislative chambers. This, in a redistricting year that will have a major influence over the political landscape in the ensuing decade.

Though 2010 is shaping up to be an election of historic proportions, it’s only the beginning of a series of major political events. Right after the election Congress will return for an important lame duck session, apportionment numbers will be released before the end of the year – meaning we will know for sure which states will be gaining and losing congressional districts and exactly how many – followed by 2011 redistricting where battles in all 50 states will soon begin (43 with multiple congressional districts are naturally of the highest importance), and, of course, the 2012 presidential election campaign commences in earnest.

The fluidity in our contemporary political time rivals that of any point in American history. It is an exciting time to be involved.

Georgia is No California

With several Democrats publicly saying they would prefer to vote for individuals other than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to lead the next House of Representatives, Congressman Jim Marshall (D-GA-8) just launched the strongest of anti-Pelosi ads in his own difficult run for re-election. Attacking not only Speaker Pelosi, but also her home town of San Francisco and portraying the old California hippie culture as “being a long way from Georgia,” Marshall goes on to say that he is a “long way from Pelosi.” He also claims not to support Pelosi and that he votes with Republican leaders “65% of the time.” According to the Politico newspaper, Marshall’s Democratic Party support figure is actually 88%, a number that is difficult to comprehend when he says he votes with the GOP almost two-thirds of the time. The Marshall ad ends with the announcer saying the Congressman has been endorsed by The NRA, Chamber of Commerce and “Right to Life.” The tag line at the end of the ad, referring to the three organizations, says “… and they wouldn’t have anything to do with a Nancy Pelosi supporter.”

The Marshall approach is the most brazen to come from any Democrat so far in this election cycle. It is an extraordinary attack on a leader of his own party, and a person who he twice voted for Speaker and once as Minority Leader. It will be interesting to see how GOP nominee Austin Scott responds to his opponent’s latest attempt at neutralizing what is probably his most glaring negative.