Monthly Archives: September 2010

Meek’s Support Among Democrats Grows in Florida

The Florida Senate race continues to unfold as one of the most interesting three-way political campaigns of all time.

Right now, polling suggests that Republican Marco Rubio has a significant lead over Republican-turned-Independent Gov. Charlie Crist and the Democratic nominee, Miami Congressman Kendrick Meek. Crist led for the two months preceding the Democratic primary, and then the tables turned. Now that Rep. Meek is becoming better known statewide, a large segment of the Crist Democratic vote is beginning to return home. Thus, as Meek gains support, Crist loses it, and Rubio continues to unify conservatives and tick upward. Therefore, in order to position himself with a chance to win, Meek must first overtake Crist and hope for a roughly even split among the three candidates. Theoretically, such a mix could elect a Democrat against a Republican and former Republican.

Ohio Takes Shape

Two new surveys were released yesterday covering the Ohio Senate and Governor’s races with both pollsters coming to almost identical conclusions.

The CBS News/New York Times poll of 1,114 adults, 973 of whom were registered voters and 941 who characterized themselves as likely to participate in the November 2nd election, was conducted during the September 23-27 period. An Ipsos/Reuters poll (9/23-25; 600 registered OH voters; 440 of whom are likely to vote in the upcoming general election) was simultaneously in the field.

Both polls show former Bush Budget Director and Congressman Rob Portman opening up a large lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, while Gov. Ted Strickland has battled back into a draw with GOP former Rep. John Kasich.

The fact that two separate polls, conducted during the same time period, would draw exactly the same conclusions on these two diverse races actually confirms the accuracy of both polls. Particularly when considering last week’s data, it is clear that Rob Portman now has a substantial lead in the Senate race and could be close to finishing off his opponent, while both candidates in the Governor’s race are still very much alive.

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Apportionment Changes Predicted

A new Election Data Services report detects changes in the predicted numbers of congressional seats that states will receive in the 2010 apportionment. The Census Bureau will officially announce the actual count in late December.

Previously, EDS and Polidata, Inc., the latter with offices in both Vermont and Washington, DC, each predicted that only two states would gain or lose more than one seat. Texas is slated for four new districts, bringing the Lone Star State total to 36 Representatives. Ohio is virtually assured of losing two, dropping their delegation to a total of 16 members.

Now, however, it appears that Florida, already predicted to gain one seat, will add a second new district. This will come at the expense of New York, which will now apparently drop a second seat instead of the one that was originally projected. Should these predictions prove accurate, both states will enter the new apportionment decade with 27 congressional districts (CDs).