Tag Archives: Pelosi

New State Fundraising Figures

By Jim Ellis

No surprise that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) tops the fundraising list.

July 20, 2021 — The second quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports are now public, and while it will take some time to comprehend the individual filings, we can look at the aggregate state data to begin drawing some early US House political situation conclusions:

The following is a list of the 80 office holders and candidates who exceeded $1 million-plus in receipts since Jan. 1, 2021, including 74 incumbents.

A total of 45 are Democrats as compared to 35 Republicans. A brief explanation of why certain individuals have raised this much money is also included.

California

INCUMBENT	PARTY	DIST	RECEIPTS	CASH-ON-HAND
Pelosi, Nancy	D	CA-12	$6,873,128	$7,150,847
McCarthy, Kevin	R	CA-23	$6,312,663	$6,305,397
Porter, Katie	D	CA-45	$4,887,831	$12,859,730
Schiff, Adam	D	CA-28	$3,979,554	$15,639,499
Nunes, Devin	R	CA-22	$2,525,366	$11,539,624
Khanna, Ro	D	CA-17	$2,307,112	$3,822,319
Harder, Josh	D	CA-10	$1,987,919	$5,040,053
Kim, Young	R	CA-39	$1,594,073	$1,447,568
Garcia, Mike	R	CA-25	$1,353,194	$822,554
Steel, Michelle	R	CA-48	$1,352,557	$1,008,266
Collins, Joe	R	CA-43	$1,199,044	$180,383
Swalwell, Eric	D	CA-15	$1,085,947	$654,799

No surprise that the two party leaders, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) and Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) top the fundraising list, though House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) exceeded by just over $600,000 the top GOP total.

Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Devin Nunes (R-Tulare) had their typically strong fundraising periods. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) has the lowest population number of any district, and he sits in the middle of the San Fernando Valley. Both points make him vulnerable in redistricting from a state that is losing a congressional district. Joe Collins (R) is opposing Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles). It is obvious from his large receipt total and small cash-on-hand figure that he is raising his money through direct mail prospecting, which is an expensive proposition.

Colorado

INCUMBENT	PARTY	DIST	RECEIPTS	CASH-ON-HAND
Boebert, Lauren	R	CO-3	$1,794,955	$1,252,630
Donovan, Kerry	D	CO-3	$1,179,347	$479,246

Obviously, the western slope 3rd District race will be competitive and expensive.

Florida

INCUMBENT	PARTY	DIST	RECEIPTS	CASH-ON-HAND
Gaetz, Matt	R	FL-1	$3,277,058	$1,585,935
Cherfilus-McCormick, Sheila	D	FL-20	$2,409,407	$2,081,704
Mast, Brian	R	FL-18	$1,749,636	$1,720,117
Donalds, Byron	R	FL-19	$1,468,065	$958,339
Salazar, Maria Elvira	R	FL-27	$1,201,681	$672,473
Murphy, Stephanie	D	FL-7	$1,165,011	$1,973,288

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) is in the special election to replace the late Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL). Most of her money is self-contributed. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach) may soon be facing legal charges, so much of his campaign treasury may be paying legal fees. Reps. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) and Stephanie Murphy (D-Winter Park) look to be facing serious re-election opposition.

Georgia

INCUMBENT	PARTY	DIST	RECEIPTS	CASH-ON-HAND
Greene, Marjorie T.	R	GA-14	$4,775,059	$2,792,569
Flowers, Marcus	D	GA-14	$2,018,385	$547,579
McBath, Lucy	D	GA-6	$1,575,051	$1,326,020
Bourdeaux, Carolyn	D	GA-7	$1,240,567	$1,131,140

There is no doubt that the 14th District race featuring controversial Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) will be expensive and attract a great deal of media attention. Reps. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) and Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Suwanee) face uncertain redistricting challenges.

Illinois

INCUMBENT	PARTY	DIST	RECEIPTS	CASH-ON-HAND
Krishnamoorthi, R.	D	IL-8	$2,282,380	$10,090,383
Kinzinger, Adam	R	IL-16	$1,954,927	$3,075,610
Underwood, Lauren	D	IL-14	$1,685,298	$1,479,294

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumberg) is a consistent major fundraiser. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Channahon) faces an uncertain redistricting situation along with a strong Republican primary challenge. Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) will likely receive a more Democratic seat in redistricting.

Iowa

INCUMBENT	PARTY	DIST	RECEIPTS	CASH-ON-HAND
Hinson, Ashley	R	IA-1	$1,443,371	$929,482
Axne, Cindy	D	IA-3	$1,292,496	$1,038,635
Miller-Meeks, M.	R	IA-2	$1,045,361	$1,174,066

As we can see from the fundraising totals, Iowa could be the most competitive US House state in 2022 with three of the state’s four seats being top-tier challenger races.

Kansas

INCUMBENT	PARTY	DIST	RECEIPTS	CASH-ON-HAND
Davids, Sharice	D	KS-3	$1,192,865	$1,222,016

Georgia is No California

With several Democrats publicly saying they would prefer to vote for individuals other than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to lead the next House of Representatives, Congressman Jim Marshall (D-GA-8) just launched the strongest of anti-Pelosi ads in his own difficult run for re-election. Attacking not only Speaker Pelosi, but also her home town of San Francisco and portraying the old California hippie culture as “being a long way from Georgia,” Marshall goes on to say that he is a “long way from Pelosi.” He also claims not to support Pelosi and that he votes with Republican leaders “65% of the time.” According to the Politico newspaper, Marshall’s Democratic Party support figure is actually 88%, a number that is difficult to comprehend when he says he votes with the GOP almost two-thirds of the time. The Marshall ad ends with the announcer saying the Congressman has been endorsed by The NRA, Chamber of Commerce and “Right to Life.” The tag line at the end of the ad, referring to the three organizations, says “… and they wouldn’t have anything to do with a Nancy Pelosi supporter.”

The Marshall approach is the most brazen to come from any Democrat so far in this election cycle. It is an extraordinary attack on a leader of his own party, and a person who he twice voted for Speaker and once as Minority Leader. It will be interesting to see how GOP nominee Austin Scott responds to his opponent’s latest attempt at neutralizing what is probably his most glaring negative.

When Will it End?

As we pull to within less than three weeks of the election, the Democrats appear to be in a free-fall. Nevada GOP Senatorial candidate Sharron Angle, opposing unpopular Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, raised a huge amount of money –– $14 million from July 1st to September 30th — an impressive haul for any candidate, but especially so for one from a small state. It’s even more stunning when you note that 94% of the money came from contributions of less than $100. In Florida, Senate GOP candidate Marco Rubio brought in more than $5 million for the quarter. In liberal Washington, Republican Dino Rossi locked in a tight battle with Sen. Patty Murray (D), exceeded $4.5 million.

In the House races, Reps. Gene Taylor (D-MS-4), Heath Shuler (D-NC-11), Walt Minnick (D-ID-1) and Bobby Bright (D-AL-2) are publicly saying they will vote for someone other than embattled House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA-8), when the new Congress convenes. Reps. Chet Edwards (D-TX-17), Jason Altmire (D-PA-4) and Joe Donnelly (D-IN-2) have ads expressing their independence from Pelosi and President Obama. Rep. Bill Owens (D-NY-23), in serious trouble because the split among local Republicans and Conservatives has ostensibly healed and Matt Doheny now has virtually united support from the right-of-center, launched a rather desperate new ad saying that he “votes with the Republican leader 63% of the time.” These are obvious signs of a party in trouble.

And new competitive congressional races are popping up every day. Now the list is even reaching protected voting rights districts like AZ-7 (Rep. Raul Grijalva in a close contest with scientist Ruth McClung), and TX-27 (Rep. Solomon Ortiz actually trailing Republican opponent Blake Farenthold in both a campaign-released survey and a private independent poll).

All of these anecdotes are similar to what we were seeing for Democrats in both 2006 and 2008, and the results, as we all know, were landslide elections. Right now, it appears that Republican House candidates are likely to win in the neighborhood of 35 Democratically-held seats, with another 30 or so in range to win. The Democrats will at least pick up two GOP seats, and maybe as many as five. Thus, the GOP approaching or exceeding a 50-seat gain is not out of the question, and reclaiming the majority appears to be on the horizon.