Tag Archives: Rep. Mike Collins

Georgia’s Sen. Ossoff in Dead Heat

See 2026 Georgia Senate poll results: Quantas Insights.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 19, 2025

Senate

As we know, the swing state of Georgia will be one of the key battleground 2026 US Senate domains, and a new statewide poll released earlier this week confirms the race will present challenges for both sides.

Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff

The Quantus Insights Peach State poll finds first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) falling into a dead heat with one Republican US House member and leads another within the polling margin of error. Yet, as we have seen in some other places, the polling sample shows issue inconsistencies within the electorate.

According to the Quantus study (Sept. 9-12; 624 likely Georgia general election voters; online and text), Sen. Ossoff and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) are tied at 38 percent preference and Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) trails the Senator, 37-40 percent. Former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, son of long-time University of Georgia football coach Vince Dooley, is definitively behind Sen. Ossoff trailing 42-35 percent.

While other polls have shown similarly close ballot tests, the Quantus survey is interesting in that it delves more deeply into issues and reveals that both eventual nominees will have challenges in attempting to forge a winning coalition.

For example, while President Trump scores a 49 percent job approval score, Sen. Ossoff posts 47 percent, yet the two are virtually diametrically opposed on the issue agenda. Furthermore, while Sen. Ossoff posts a 47:37 percent job approval index, only 36 percent of the same sampling universe believes he deserves re-election, and 49 percent believes it is “time for a change.”

In an overwhelming number (53 percent), the poll respondents cite the cost of living and inflation as the most important issue. Crime and public safety is second (13 percent), with jobs and the economy closely behind (12 percent). The number one response, however, for why costs are rising is President Trump’s tariffs and trade policies (41 percent). The Biden Administration economic policies were the second-most mentioned cause (27 percent).

When asked which party do the Georgia respondents trust more to handle the economic issues, 40 percent said the Democrats and only 39 percent answered Republicans. On bringing down the cost of living, it is again the Democrats holding a slight edge, 36-35 percent.

On crime, however, Republicans are more trusted, 42-29 percent. Same for immigration with a 48-28 percent Republican favorable split. By a 53-40 percent majority, the respondents favor the mass deportation policy, while only 31 percent support Ossoff’s border security position. A total of 76 percent support the crime prevention Laken Riley Act, a Republican bill that Sen. Ossoff supported.

An inconsistency appears when respondents are asked to list what they believe should be the next Senator’s priorities. In order, the responses were reducing taxes for working families (39 percent), cutting wasteful federal spending (24 percent), and reducing regulations that raise prices (21 percent). This is in line with the Republican message, but the sentiment is not fully translating to the Republican candidates, particularly among Independent voters.

While Sen. Ossoff is unopposed for the Democratic nomination, on the Republican side the Quantus poll found Rep. Collins leading Rep. Carter and Dooley, 25-20-7 percent. With a large undecided pool, this campaign will go down to the wire toward the May 19 primary. If no one receives 50 percent, the top two finishers will advance to a June 16 runoff election.

As a reminder for the general election, Georgia is one of two states that also features a runoff election if no candidate receives majority support in the November vote. The post-election runoff was forced in the past two Georgia Senate elections. If this situation presents itself again in 2026, the deciding runoff will be held on Dec. 1.

As is the case in virtually every election, messaging will be key. Republicans must find a way to relate what are typically Georgia voter issue positions directly to the party’s Senate candidate, while Sen. Ossoff must find ways to improve his electoral standing even though his job approval is relatively good. It is important to note that in this poll’s ballot tests, the Senator did not break 40 percent preference against any Republican.

Along with the Senate races in Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas, the Georgia Senate battle will be a premier 2026 electoral contest.

New Georgia Senate Polling

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2025

Senate

One of the tightest 2026 US Senate races is sure to be found in the Peach State of Georgia and a new statewide poll already confirms a developing toss-up general election.

The TIPP Poll organization released the results of their new survey (July 28-Aug. 1; 2,956 registered Georgia voters; online) that forecasts Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) potentially as Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D) top challenger. According to the related ballot test, Sen. Ossoff’s edge over Rep. Collins would be a scant 45-44 percent.

The other Republican candidates also poll well against Sen. Ossoff but draw less support than Rep. Collins. Savannah area Congressman Buddy Carter (R-Pooler) would pull within 44-40 percent of Sen. Ossoff. Former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, son of legendary Georgia University football coach Vince Dooley, would trail 44-39 percent in a hypothetical general election pairing with the first-term incumbent.

The results are not surprising. The Georgia electorate has returned some of the closest election results in the country since the 2018 Governor’s race that found current incumbent Brian Kemp (R) nipping Democrat Stacey Abrams by just over one percentage point.

The 2020 presidential race saw Joe Biden slipping past President Trump by only 11,779 votes from almost 5 million cast ballots.

Both 2020 Senate races were forced to runoff elections (Georgia had a special election that year to replace Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) who had resigned for health reasons prior to him passing away). Two years later, the race for a full term between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Herschel Walker also moved into a post-election runoff.

In the 2024 presidential vote, Trump defeated President Biden, 50.7 – 48.5 percent by a more comfortable margin of 115,100 votes from more than 5.2 million cast ballots, but still a close final tally.

Additionally, Georgia is also one of the few states that holds a post-general election runoff should no candidate receive majority support (Mississippi is another and Louisiana is changing from their jungle primary/December runoff system to a traditional primary and general election beginning in 2026), and the ’26 Senate race advancing into political overtime is certainly a distinct possibility.

With this backdrop, we can expect another series of close Peach State elections led by its Senate and open Governor races. Therefore, the early TIPP general election poll already showing a dead heat comes with little surprise.

Before the general election begins, Republicans are likely to face a tough primary campaign where the top two finishers in the May 19 GOP nomination contest advance into a June 16 runoff election.

TIPP also surveyed the likely Republican primary voters and found Rep. Collins leading Rep. Carter and Mr. Dooley, 25-19-7 percent. Familiarity with the Republican candidates is not particularly high, however. This means the candidates will have to spend heavily in the primary just to win the right to challenge Sen. Ossoff.

A total of 44 percent of the tested polling sample expressed familiarity with Rep. Carter, 42 percent could identify Rep. Collins, and 37 percent recognized Derek Dooley’s name. The latter man won Gov. Kemp’s endorsement, and the Kemp leadership PAC is pledging to spend early to help educate the voters about Dooley. At this point, President Trump has not endorsed a Republican primary candidate, but all are seeking his support.

Resources in the general election, though both sides can expect millions of outside Super PAC money coming into the state to assist their efforts, will likely favor the incumbent Democrat. Already, Sen. Ossoff is the top fundraiser in the country after the latest disclosure reports became public.

The Senator, since his original election in 2020, has raised almost $42 million, but spent $30.8 million largely to clear expenses from the ’20 campaign and to support his substantial fundraising operation. Still, the Senator holds almost $15.5 million in his campaign account according to the June 30 Federal Election Commission finance report.

Rep. Carter is in the strongest financial position among Republicans. His receipts through the second quarter of 2025 top $3.5 million, but that includes a loan to the campaign of $2 million. His cash-on-hand total exceeds $4 million.

Rep. Collins is considerably behind, raising $745,883 since the beginning of the year and posting just over $1 million in the bank. Dooley, who recently became an official candidate, will file his first campaign financial disclosure report on Sept. 30.

Along with the Michigan and North Carolina Senate races, we can count on the Georgia Senate contest attracting a major share of national political attention next year.

Rep. Collins Expected to Enter
Georgia Senate Race Later This Month

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 24, 2025

Senate

Georgia Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson)

Reports are surfacing from Georgia that two-term US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) will announce a US Senate bid before the end of July.

Should Rep. Collins follow through and enter the race, he will join US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), state Agriculture Commissioner John King, and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton) as prominent candidates in the GOP primary. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge first-term incumbent Jon Ossoff (D).

According to the latest Federal Election Commission candidate financial disclosure report for the period ending June 30, 2025, Rep. Collins would have just over $1 million to transfer into a Senate race. Rep. Carter is considerably ahead on the money front, reporting a cash-on-hand figure of just over $4 million after raising slightly under $3.6 million for the 2026 election cycle. Commissioner King disclosed only $450,405 in his federal campaign account. State Sen. Moore has yet to file a committee statement with the FEC and is unlikely to become a top-tier contender.

Should the Republican field remain constant, it appears the race could narrow significantly to a battle between the two Congressmen. For his part, Sen. Ossoff, obviously considered highly vulnerable in 2026, leads the nation in fundraising with a whopping $41.97 million since he was originally elected in 2020.

During his term, however, Sen. Ossoff has spent over $30.8 million leaving a reported cash-on-hand figure a touch under $15.5 million. Clearly, the Senator will be financially well-heeled in what could become the most competitive 2026 national Senate race.

In 2020, Ossoff upset then-Sen. David Perdue (R) in a post-general election runoff, from the same November election where Joe Biden was edging President Trump by 11,779 votes statewide. Georgia is one of two states that has a general election run-off law, meaning the top two finishing candidates would advance into a post-election December secondary vote should the first place finisher fail to attract majority support.

Such a scenario occurred five years ago, with Sen. Perdue finishing first in the general election, but who fell 13,471 votes short of securing a majority that would have clinched his re-election. The percentage total for the general election found Sen. Perdue topping Ossoff, 49.7 – 47.9 percent. In the runoff, fortunes turned as Ossoff pushed ahead at the December finish line, 50.6 – 49.4 percent, a margin of 54,944 votes from more than 4.48 million ballots cast.

In 2024, Trump scored a Georgia rebound, topping Kamala Harris, 50.7 – 48.5 percent. Two years earlier in the 2022 midterm election, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) topped former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D), 53-46 percent, and Republicans won eight of nine Georgia statewide races.

This most recent Peach State voting history creates optimism among the 2026 Republican candidates, thus making the Georgia Senate race the campaign likely to attract the most national political attention and possibly the most combined outside independent expenditure dollars.

The Georgia election system could yield a Republican Senate nomination also advancing into a secondary election. The Georgia primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026, with a runoff, if necessary because the first place finisher does not command majority support, to be scheduled for a Tuesday in June, likely the 16th or 23rd.

Others could still join the GOP race, but as the cycle unfolds and the fundraising leaders continue to pad their accounts further entries become more unlikely. Still said to be considering the race is Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, among others, but it appears more likely at this point in time that the Secretary will either seek re-election for a third term or run for the open Governor’s position.

In terms of the two House seats that Reps. Carter and presumably Collins will vacate, we can expect crowded Republican primary battles to form in the respective 1st and 10th Districts likely ending in tight results.

Both seats are safely Republican according to the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations (GA:1 – 57.3R – 41.1D; GA-10 – 61.2R – 37.2D). In 2024, President Trump captured 57.6 percent in GA-1, and 60.1 percent in GA-10.

Even at this early date, the Georgia voting electorate will again be bombarded with very competitive 2026 campaign efforts over what promises to be a busy ballot from top to bottom.

Georgia Republican Senate Candidates Closing in on Sen. Jon Ossoff

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 29, 2025

Senate

Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff

A recently released Cygnal survey research firm poll finds the Republican Senate candidate pool pulling closer to Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), and the two best available performers aren’t yet in the race.

The Cygnal poll (May 15-17; 800 likely Georgia voters; live interview & text) projects that Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) runs slightly ahead of Sen. Ossoff, 44.3 to 44.1 percent. Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) appears next strongest, trailing the incumbent, 45.7 – 44.3 percent. Neither, however, are announced Senate candidates.

Secretary Raffensperger, who was the focal point of the 2020 vote fraud claim controversy in the presidential race, could seek re-election. He has also publicly contemplated entering the open Governor’s race but has been relatively silent about launching a bid against Sen. Ossoff.

Rep. Collins has been listed as a potential Senate candidate since the beginning of the prognostication discussion, and he is still considered as a possible statewide contender.

Another potential Republican candidate, but one unlikely to run, is former US Senator and current Small Business Administration Director Kelly Loeffler. She also does well in the Cygnal poll, trailing Ossoff just 46.3 – 42.8 percent.

The announced candidates fall into the same close polling realm. Sen. Ossoff would lead Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), 46.0 – 42.1 percent, while state Agriculture Commissioner John King falls behind the Senator by a closer 44.7 – 42.1 percent.

This set of polls is much different from what we have previously seen in the early going. Before, Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who recently announced he would not run for Senate, polled slightly ahead of Ossoff, but the others were substantially behind. Therefore, the new Cygnal poll, from a frequent Georgia pollster, marks a significant improvement for the lesser known GOP candidates and potential contenders.

For example, the April Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll (May 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) found Sen. Ossoff leading Commissioner King, 51-38 percent. A January WPA Intelligence survey (Jan. 14-15; 500 likely Georgia voters) posted Ossoff leading King, 47-31 percent and 45-32 percent over Rep. Carter.

The Tyson Group also polled the Georgia Senate race in January (Jan. 30-31; 600 likely Georgia voters) and reported Gov. Kemp leading Sen. Ossoff, 49-42 percent. They also tested Rep. Carter and found Ossoff rebounding to lead 47-32 percent. The Trafalgar Group, in their April poll (April 24-27; 1,426 likely Georgia voters; multiple sampling techniques), saw Sen. Ossoff running ahead of Rep. Collins by a closer 47.5 – 42.8 percent margin.

The Trafalgar Group also released Republican primary numbers from last month’s results. At the time, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome), who later announced that she would not enter the Senate race, led the group with 42.7 percent of the likely Republican primary voters. Raffensperger was second with 22.0 percent, followed by Rep. Collins’ 15.0 percent support. Rep. Carter drew 13.1 percent, potential candidate Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) posted 5.3 percent, and Commissioner King trailed with only 2.0 percent preference.

While certain states, adjacent North Carolina being a prime example, see routine polling inaccuracies that usually involve an under-poll for Republican candidates, the 2024 Georgia data produced sound projections.

According to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives, the past six Georgia presidential polls all saw the race coming down to a one point margin. The final Atlas Intel (Nov. 3-4) survey predicted the correct margin, a two-point victory for President Trump. This most recent polling track record is a clear improvement for Georgia polling methodologies because the group of participating pollsters largely missed the 2020 Georgia presidential and 2022 Senate races.

The Republican nomination field is expected to be large, meaning the May 19 GOP Senate primary will likely advance to a late June runoff between the eventual top two finishers. Once a Republican nominee is chosen (Sen. Ossoff is expected to be unopposed for the Democratic nomination) the Peach State political fireworks will then consume the remaining five months of the ’26 election cycle.

The Georgia race promises to be one of the most hotly contested battleground Senate campaigns of the 2026 election cycle. It is clearly the Republicans’ best chance to convert a Democratic seat, so the party will be all-in here, regardless of which Republican will ultimately challenge Sen. Ossoff.