Tag Archives: Michael Whatley

New North Carolina Senate Data

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025

Senate

A new Harper Polling survey of North Carolina likely voters produced positive numbers for Democrats, but other factors suggest the open Senate race is far from over.

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (R)

Harper projects former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) to a lead beyond the polling margin of error for the 2026 Senate race. The underlying numbers, however, suggest that the Tar Heel State electorate could again generate another of its typically close finishes on Election Day.

The Harper Polling survey, conducted for the Carolina Journal online news site (Nov. 9-10; 600 likely North Carolina general election voters; live interview & online), finds Cooper posting a 47-39 percent lead over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley (R). The North Carolina open Senate race is one of only two competitive Senate campaigns — Ohio being the other — that already sees its general election pairing because currently neither party is hosting a seriously competitive nomination battle.

Clearly, the Democrats have successfully recruited their best candidate. Roy Cooper has won six statewide races, two as Governor and four as Attorney General including the 2012 contest when he was unopposed. There was some speculation that Cooper would eschew a Senate run to enter the 2028 presidential contest, but apparently the national party leadership was able to convince him to stay home and attempt to flip the Senate majority.

Cooper’s 2020 re-election race, however, was an underperformance, thus giving Republicans a potential area of weakness to probe. While being considered a heavy favorite for re-election to a second term, he only won with a 51-47 percent margin over then-Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R).

In mid to latter October of 2020, four polls were conducted in the state and then-Gov. Cooper led by an average of just below 13 percentage points. Yet, he only won with a four-point spread. That year, however, the turnout model favored the North Carolina Republicans as both President Trump and Sen. Thom Tillis (R) carried the state by small margins.

There are several further points to consider about the current Harper Polling survey. First, the eight-point Democratic spread is not particularly unusual for an early North Carolina poll. The state typically over-polls for Democrats, at least by two percentage points, which partially accounts for the Cooper margin in this poll.

Secondly, an unusually high 54 percent of the polling universe is female, which again pushes the ballot test toward the Democratic candidate.

Third, though not tested, Whatley’s name identification is obviously low. The evidence comes from the second ballot test question that pitted retired Navy JAG officer and author Don Brown (R), who has no statewide presence, against Cooper. Brown’s chances of winning the Republican nomination are virtually nil, so testing him against Cooper provides a base GOP benchmark.

In the Cooper-Brown ballot test, the Democratic former Governor leads by a similar 48-38 percent. The fact that Whatley and Brown post similar numbers and deficit margins is an indication that the Whatley name ID is low, thus his support level reverts to a benchmark figure.

Moreover, there are warning signs detected for all Republicans from this survey. The national right track-wrong track question that tests attitude shows 55 percent of the Harper, North Carolina respondents believe the country is on the wrong track. When asked the same about the state of North Carolina, 48 percent answered wrong track.

While these numbers are an improvement over what we were seeing during the end of the Biden Administration, they are not positive for the Trump presidency and largely confirms some of the trends we saw in the Nov. 4 elections from New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City.

Another warning sign for Republicans, and the heart of the negative trend, is the impression of today’s economy. Among these respondents, 58 percent said they are not confident about the economy as compared with 40 percent who said they are.

HP also asked an interesting question to better understand how the respondents feel about the economy. They found that 67 percent said they are planning to spend less for the upcoming holidays compared to only 14 percent who say they will spend more.

Finally, and still pertaining to the economy, the tariff policy is not popular with this North Carolina polling sample. A total of 53 percent said the tariffs hurt the national economy versus 38 percent who believe they help.

This poll, in a state that more often than not votes Republican by small margins, again highlights the economy as the most difficult issue the GOP candidates face.

Unless they can tell an improved story about how the Administration’s policies are improving everyone’s lifestyle especially when remembering that President Trump predicted his policies will create a “roaring American economy,” then the 2026 election results could well reflect the recent Nov. 4 electoral outcome.

Cooper v. Whatley in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 28, 2025

Senate

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D)

While major potential North Carolina US Senate candidates in both parties had been keeping their leaders at bay for several months about whether they would enter the open contest, we now see evolving what is likely to be the state’s general election pairing.

Late last week, a report was published indicating that former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) had informed his party leaders that he will run for the Senate and is expected to make a formal declaration of candidacy this week.

Presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump, who previously said she would decide about entering the Senate race “before Thanksgiving,” announced Thursday that she would not run, and immediately Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley declared his own candidacy. Just as fast, President Trump issued an endorsement for Whatley.

Thus, within this short period after long being in suspension, it appears we already have our general election pairing for one of the most important and competitive of the 2026 Senate campaigns.

For the Democrats, one potential obstacle remains. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D) had declared his Senate candidacy as he announced in 2023 that he would not seek a second term in the House because of what he termed an adverse redistricting map. Later, Nickel said he would step aside if Cooper decided to run but has not recently reiterated such comments. Therefore, it remains to be seen if Nickel remains in the Senate race.

The 2026 Senate race promises to be close, as are most statewide races in North Carolina. From the 2016 election through 2024, a total of 36 statewide campaigns were conducted from President to Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Republican candidates won 23 of those elections and Democrats’ 13, and two of the latter were Cooper’s close victories for Governor. Calculating the mean average for the 36 campaigns, the Republican candidates attracted 50.4 percent of the vote, while Democratic candidates recorded 48.3 percent.

Cooper won six Tar Heel State campaigns, four as Attorney General (2000 through 2012) and two for Governor. In his pair of chief executive contests, 2016 and 2020, Cooper averaged 50.2 percent. In 2016, he won with 49 percent of the vote unseating then-Gov. Pat McCrory (R), and four years later secured re-election against then-Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R) with a 51.5 percent tally.

Michael Whatley, an attorney, was appointed RNC chairman after President Trump’s renomination in 2024. Previously, he served as chair of the North Carolina Republican Party and as a chief of staff to then-Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) among other political positions. It had been presumed that Whatley would enter the open Senate race after incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) announced that he would not seek a third term. That is, presuming Ms. Trump would ultimately decide against running.

While prognosticators are giving Cooper at least a slight early edge, which is reasonable considering the Democrat has won six statewide races and the Republican has never been on the ballot, the overall statistics over the previous eight-year period as shown above, provide the Republicans with a slight cushion.

One thing is for certain: the impending Senate race will be the most expensive in North Carolina electoral history. In 2022, then-Rep. Ted Budd (R) defeated former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) in an open contest even though he was outspent $39 million to $16 million when comparing the two candidates’ campaign committee reports.

Outside spending, however, allowed Budd to close the gap. Republican outside group allies poured in just over $75 million into the campaign as compared to Democratic allies spending $30 million. Expect all of these financial numbers to be eclipsed in 2026.

This race is now officially on, and we can routinely expect a great deal of national attention being directed toward the Tar Heel State over the next 15 months.