Tag Archives: Herman Cain

Trio of Polls Show Romney, Perry at Top

Since July 20, three major national polls have been conducted and released, all recording basically the same results. Gallup (July 20-24; 1,088 self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents), the Pew Research Center (July 20-24; 980 self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents), and Rasmussen Reports (July 28; 1,000 likely GOP primary voters) each place Massachusetts former Gov. Mitt Romney in first place with 17, 21, and 22 percent, respectively, among the voters tested. But the bigger story continues to be how well Texas Gov. Rick Perry performs. In each of these surveys, the unannounced candidate places second, notching 15, 12, and 18 percent preference among those sampled in the three respective survey universes.

These polls, as well as most others, tell us two things. First, Romney is a weak front-runner since he fails to break 25 percent in any national poll. Second, the rise of Gov. Perry who, by all accounts will soon enter the race, again underscores the respondents’ desire to choose a person outside the sphere of current candidates, thus expressing disapproval with the GOP presidential field as a whole.

The Gallup poll, which includes former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, clearly highlights the desire for additional choices because the individuals placing second, third, and fourth (Perry, ex-Vice-Presidential nominee Sarah Palin, and Giuliani) are all non-candidates. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6) ties Giuliani for fourth with just 11 percent, but all other official candidates: Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14), ex-Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), retired businessman Herman Cain, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), recent US Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, finish no better than in high single-digits.

The other tangential effect from Perry’s strong early performance is the weakening of Bachmann’s standing. The Pew study illustrates this point in two ways, through the use of several different and interesting questions.

First, the sampling universe was asked to name the candidate they have heard the most about during the recent time frame. By a margin of 23 to 13 percent, the respondents answered Bachmann. Romney scored the 13%. Perry, on the other hand, posted just 3 percent on this question. Such bodes well for the Texas governor because he is still placing second in the overall poll despite the at-large sample hearing little about him. Conversely, this measurement trends poorly for Bachmann because her support appears to be declining slightly even though she is by far and away the candidate attracting the most current attention.

Second, Perry already polls ahead of Bachmann, 16-14 percent, among the people who look favorably upon the Tea Party. This is quite a surprise since Bachmann is the House Tea Party Caucus chair and has been closely identified with the disparate individual groups since their inception. Perry, while certainly espousing the type of economic theories and policy positions with which the Tea Party leadership and members agree, is not nearly as identified with the movement as Bachmann. Yet, at least according to this Pew data, the governor is already passing her within the polling segment.

Furthermore, Romney even exceeds Bachmann’s support level within the Tea Party sector, tying Perry at 16 percent. This is more astonishing than Perry’s performance, since Romney’s record includes enacting the now highly publicized Massachusetts state government health care system that came into being by virtue of his initiative while Governor. Along with Herman Cain posting 12 percent support from the Tea Party Republicans, the data tells us that no one candidate has a lock on this ideological segment of the GOP primary vote. It leads us to the conclusion that the campaign is wide open and will likely run through the maximum number of states before a Republican nominee is crowned next year.

During this late July period, the polling, as reflected in the Pew, Gallup, and Rasmussen studies that were all conducted during the same time segment, is clearly detecting several noticeable trends. First, while Romney places first in virtually every poll, it is never by much, suggesting that his path to the nomination is tenuous despite his present standing. Second, Bachmann is not in as strong a position across the board as she was during the early part of the month. Third, Gov. Perry is showing uncommon strength for a non-candidate with relatively low name ID. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that when Perry officially enters the race, the contest could conceivably winnow down, relatively quickly, to a two-person campaign between Perry and Romney. With neither having a defined early lead, we have further support for concluding that this race will not soon be settled.
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Q-Poll Out Sets Fla., Pa., Expectations

Quinnipiac University just returned the results of two new surveys in the critical presidential states of Florida and Pennsylvania.

The Sunshine State’s story (July 27-8/2; 1,417 FL registered voters; 510 self-identified GOP voters) is the interest in Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Included among the Republican field of presidential candidates, Perry, despite launching no campaign organization to date, soars to second place behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. The two are the only Republican primary candidates, according to this Q-Poll, to break double-digits.

The Florida primary results show Romney with 23 percent, followed by Perry’s 14 percent. Former vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14) are next with 9 percent apiece. Retired businessman Herman Cain has 8 percent. Perhaps the biggest surprise, and possibly the biggest casualty should Perry enter the race as all pundits now expect, is Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6). According to this Florida GOP sample, Bachmann only posts 6 percent, less than half of Perry’s total and only a quarter of Romney’s. Relegated to single digits in an important state like Florida is not good news for the Tea Party Caucus chair, who has been performing very well in other state polls, particularly those among Iowa voters. The Q-Poll features a low sample (510 Republicans) for a state the size of Florida, even when considering that they are only testing supporters of one political party.

The Florida Republican primary is one of the most important in the GOP contest. Slated to be held just before Super Tuesday, 99 delegates will be apportioned among the candidates, third highest of any state. Only California (172 delegates) and Texas (152 delegates) have larger GOP delegations. The winner of the statewide vote is awarded 10 delegates. Eight more – three party delegates and five bonus votes – will also likely end up with the statewide victor. In all, 81 delegates, three per each of the state’s 27 congressional districts, are awarded to the candidate winning the specific CDs. In the general election, the Republicans must win Florida to have a legitimate chance of capturing the Presidency.

Romney and Perry are also tops among all the Republican candidates when paired with President Obama, too. In fact, Romney draws to a 44-44 percent tie with Mr. Obama. Perry is just five points behind the President, trailing 39-44 percent. The margin is greater when the other GOP contenders go one-on-one with Obama. Against Palin, the President’s advantage is 53-34 percent, his best showing against any top Republican contender. Bachmann does better than Palin but still trails Mr. Obama by double digits. In this match-up, Obama leads the Minnesota Congresswoman 50-38 percent.

The Pennsylvania numbers (July 25-31; 1,358 PA registered voters; 580 self-identified Republican voters) are much different. A relatively reliable Democratic state, Pennsylvania will play an important role in the 2012 presidential contest, but much more so for the Democrats than Republicans. The GOP can win the national election without carrying Pennsylvania, but Democrats cannot.

The surprising performer among the Keystone State voters is their former senator, Rick Santorum. The former PA officeholder spent three terms in the House and two in the Senate before falling badly in 2006 to now-Sen. Bob Casey, Jr., 41-59%. Though barely a blip nationally as a Republican presidential candidate, Santorum is showing resiliency in his home state. Among GOP primary contenders, Romney has the lead with 21%, followed by Santorum at 14%. Palin is next with 12%, Bachmann has 11%, and Perry is way off the pace, posting only 8%. In the Republican primary, Pennsylvania is allocated 72 delegates making it the sixth largest state for the GOP nomination.

In the general election match-ups, the President actually fares quite poorly, considering that Pennsylvania is a must-win state for him. He trails Romney 42-44 percent; leads Santorum only 45-43 percent; and bests Perry with an unimpressive 45-39 percent showing. Mr. Obama enjoys an eight-point lead over Bachmann, 47-39 percent.

The Obama job approval numbers are a clear barometer to gauge just how far the President has fallen before the Keystone State electorate. Today, only 43 percent of the PA respondents give Mr. Obama favorable reviews versus 54 percent who disapprove of how he executes the duties of his office. In June his positive to negative ratio was a better, but still uninspiring, 48:48 percent.
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Perry Grabs Lead in Virginia

Texas Gov. Rick Perry continues to perform well within the Republican presidential field even though he is not yet an official candidate. According to a new Public Policy Polling survey (July 21-24; 400 registered Virginia voters), Perry scores 20 percent among Virginia Republican voters. former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is second with 16 percent; Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6) places third at 15 percent. Ex-vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin, like Perry an unannounced candidate, is next posting 13 percent. Retired businessman Herman Cain is the final candidate registering in double-digits. He claims 10 percent in the PPP Virginia poll.

Perry’s performance in this poll is rather stunning. The Texas governor places first but has the lowest name identification (62 percent) among all of the top-tier candidates, including Cain (64 percent). It’s extraordinary for the least-known candidate to command the top position and suggests that the Lone Star State governor has a very high national ceiling. This bodes very well for his future campaign effort.

The Old Dominion is a key state on the road to the GOP nomination because it uses a winner-take-all format, meaning the primary victor is awarded all 49 allocated delegates. Under 2012 Republican National Committee rules, 1,212 delegate votes are required to win the presidential nomination. Democrats no longer allow the winner-take-all model.
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For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com.

Is the Republican Field Already Narrowing?

Public Policy Polling (July 15-17; 730 US self-identified Republican voters) just released the results from their latest national political poll and though the 730 sample size is exceedingly low for a nationwide survey — thus raising the error factor considerably — the overall conclusions are plausible.

Capturing the sense that Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6) is surging into the top tier of the Republican presidential field of candidates, the PPP actually places her in first position at 21 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is second with 20 percent, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, included for the first time in a major national poll, places a respectable third with 12 percent. Retired businessman Herman Cain is next, attracting 11 percent.

The poll results are particularly good news for Bachmann and Perry. The data provides evidence of Bachmann’s upward mobility, just as political commentators, campaign professionals, and rank and file activists alike had previously professed. But, the question surrounding her fledging effort is: can she sustain this pace and momentum? Now favored to carry the upcoming Iowa Straw Poll event (Aug. 13), which is actually a major fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party since candidates pay thousands of dollars to participate, Bachmann could well be on the way to positioning herself to win the first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucuses come February.

Gov. Perry, scoring in double-digits his first time out of the gate, is impressive and the numbers are a clear signal that he will be a serious candidate should he ultimately decide to run. Perry’s greatest asset is his record as the nation’s senior governor. Leading the rest of America in job creation, Texas continues to defy the poor domestic economic trends. In a campaign year where jobs will be the top issue upon which the general election candidates will run, Perry clearly has established his economic legitimacy. He has few deficiencies with which to contend, thus making him a strong potential opponent for President Obama.

The PPP poll again reveals some weakness for Romney. Commonly viewed as the front-runner in the race, this is the third poll that places him behind Bachmann and the first one to do so nationally. The other two state surveys that produced similar results, both Public Policy Polling studies, were in Iowa and New Mexico. Romney also has another glaring weakness. Regarding the healthcare issue during his tenure as governor, he instituted a quasi government run healthcare system for Massachusetts. According to the PPP study, only 17 percent of the respondents say they would be willing to vote for a candidate who supported a state-run healthcare program. By contrast, 66 percent said they are not willing to do so. Additionally, the fact that he again fails to break 20 percent in a survey continually reveals his low ceiling among the Republican electorate.

The second quarter financial reports for the presidential candidates are now public, and though most of the candidates had previously announced their dollar figures, it is again important to review the financial landscape.

The following link goes to a spreadsheet displaying all of the pertinent numbers: Presidential Financials 2nd Qtr 2011.
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Romney and Pawlenty Already Faltering?

Selzer & Company, a survey research firm headquartered in Iowa that routinely polls for the Des Moines Register newspaper, released some surprising results from their latest study (June 19-22; 400 likely Iowa Caucus participants). According to the data, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, upon whom many analysts and media outlets already bestow the “front-runner” tag, leads upstart Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6) by a razor-thin 23-22 percent count within this particular polling universe. Businessman Herman Cain placed third with 10 percent.

Perhaps the biggest surprise found in this study, however, is the poor showing from former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who captured just 6 percent of the respondents’ support despite his heavily targeting the state. Pawlenty was thought to be a top-tier candidate but so far has failed to excite the Republican voting base, including conservative donors and activists. Additionally, any regional bump he might get because he hails from a neighboring state (Iowans have proven to be regionally parochial in their past voting history) is apparently being snatched away by Bachmann, who is also from the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

This latest Iowa Caucus poll is again proving that the Republican presidential nomination contest is still a wide open political battle that will produce many surprises before a winner is ultimately crowned next August at the Republican National Convention in Tampa.
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For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com