By Jim Ellis
Oct. 12, 2016 — Last week, we reported on both parties canceling their Wisconsin Senate race media buys leading all to deduce that challenger Russ Feingold (D) has an insurmountable lead for incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) to overcome. Since Johnson has not been ahead in any survey for almost two years and has come within five points of ex-Sen. Feingold only a handful of times during that period, Wisconsin has climbed to the top of the Democratic conversion list.
Now, however, a new Loras College (Dubuque, IA) poll (Oct. 4-5; 500 likely Wisconsin voters) finds Sen. Johnson surprisingly rebounding to a 45-40 percent lead.
Though the result is not compatible with any other available data, the sampling group members’ attitudes and answers on other questions do blend in with previously reported results. The study appears weighted properly for voting patterns, (37 percent Democrat; 32 percent Republican) and demographics, while the presidential numbers track with all other surveys.
When asked whether the sampling group would support Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein for President, 43 percent of the Loras College respondents said Clinton, 35 percent Trump, and 8 percent Johnson, while Stein recorded 2 percent.
Two other Wisconsin October polls show almost exactly the same spread as Loras. CBS News/YouGov (Oct. 5-7; 993 likely Wisconsin voters) found a 43-39-4-1 percent margin. Gravis Marketing (Oct. 4; 1,102 registered Wisconsin voters) sees a 48-40-4-1 percent split.
In terms of Loras’ presidential candidate favorability index ratings, they too look reliable. Clinton records a 41:54 percent positive to negative ratio, while Trump does much worse at 30:63 percent. Considering Wisconsin has never responded well to Trump – he even lost the Republican primary here to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) – these results, too, are within the reasonable realm when compared to other independent surveys. President Obama’s job approval rating of 54:41 percent favorable to unfavorable is also consistent with other Wisconsin polls.
On the question of projecting the candidate that will win the presidential election irrespective of who the individual supports, by a margin of 61-19 percent the group answered Clinton. Again, this response rate is consistent with other such numbers recently reported around the country.
Turning back to the Johnson-Feingold race, the favorability index is good for both contenders. The result is a change in Sen. Johnson’s favor, but registers constant for Feingold. Johnson posts a strong 46:32 percent positive to negative in the Loras survey, while the former Democratic Senator scores a similar 46:38 percent.
An obvious reason for Johnson’s improvement is that he began his media campaign, attempting to draw a clear contrast between Feingold and himself. The Loras poll suggests that his effort is paying dividends.
More data will have to be forthcoming to show Johnson within range of winning this campaign for the major committees to again reverse course and re-enter this contest with a new media buy. Should the Loras trend be supported in future polling, it would lend to the conclusion that this race is not yet over.
