By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Texas Races
Multiple Republican seats are in jeopardy in the upcoming Texas primary on March 3.
The Senate race has attracted a great deal of attention throughout the early part of the 2026 election cycle. Regarding incumbent John Cornyn’s Republican primary status, his fate will not likely be decided on March 3.
The Senator, on the ballot for a fifth term, is virtually assured of being forced into a runoff election likely with Attorney General Ken Paxton. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) is also in the race and making positive strides. It is probable, however, that he will fall short of securing one of the two available runoff ballot positions.
For months, large numbers of polls have shown neither Sen. Cornyn nor AG Paxton coming anywhere near the 50 percent plateau in primary ballot test results. In fact, neither has even seriously approached the 40 percent mark at any time after July. Since then, 30 Texas Senate primary campaign polls have been publicly released.
Typically, when an incumbent is forced into a runoff in those states where securing majority support is necessary to win a party nomination, the challenger prevails in the secondary election because a majority of voters had already forced the incumbent below the required victory vote percentage figure.
A Cornyn-Paxton runoff may be different, however. First, Texas now has a long runoff cycle – from March 4 through May 26 – so much can change in a long campaign duration.
Secondly, Sen. Cornyn enjoys a significant campaign resource advantage as evidenced in that AG Paxton is only moderately advertising at the end of the primary period. He is obviously pooling his lesser resources for the runoff. By holding his money, Paxton indicates that he perceives fundraising will be difficult against Cornyn in a one-on-one situation.
And, finally, Paxton has been scandal-ridden in the past, and those negatives will be wholly revisited in the runoff cycle.
Reports suggest that three US House incumbents could lose their renomination battles with an outside possibility of a fourth.
The new redistricting map has forced incumbents Al Green (D-Houston) and newly elected (Jan. 31 special election) Christian Menefee (D-Houston) into a new 18th District. Though 65 percent of the constituency in the new 18th comes from Green’s 9th CD, the polling overwhelmingly suggests that Rep. Menefee is in prime position to win the Democratic primary and do so without a runoff.
Also on the Democratic side, in Dallas County, freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) saw her 32nd District turned into a Republican seat that now stretches into East Texas. Because the new seat heavily favors Republicans, Rep. Johnson decided to seek re-election in the new 33rd District, after Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) chose to retire.
The move looked promising for Rep. Johnson until former Representative and 2024 Democratic US Senate nominee Colin Allred suddenly decided to end his announced 2026 Senate campaign and instead filed for District 33. Polling suggests that Allred’s strong name identification and resource advantage will send him back to the US House of Representatives and relegate Rep. Johnson’s congressional service to one term.
Clearly the most bizarre race involves three-term Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio); he too is in danger of failing to win renomination. In 2024, Gonzales, not a favorite among the hard right faction within his sprawling 23rd District that stretches from San Antonio to El Paso, was forced into a runoff election with firearms manufacturer Brandon Herrera and he survived by only 354 votes. In the current campaign, not only did Herrera return, but former Congressman Quico Canseco is also in the race.
Rep. Gonzales has been at the forefront of a political storm resulting from a tragic situation where a former aide, Regina Santos-Aviles, was alleged to be in an extramarital affair with Gonzales and then committed suicide by lighting herself on fire. As the campaign draws to conclusion, Santos-Aviles’ husband is coming forward to confirm his wife’s affair with Gonzales and accuses the Congressman of abusing his power.
Though the challengers have little in the way of campaign funding, the negative publicity and the closeness of his 2024 renomination campaign makes Rep. Gonzales highly endangered.
Some point to Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) as being another incumbent on the precipice of defeat. His main opponent is state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) who has a strong conservative following. Rep. Crenshaw dominates the resource phase of the campaign, and though Toth has a support base it is unlikely that he will dethrone the Congressman in this primary battle. With four candidates on the ballot, however, moving to a runoff is possible. This is a race to watch on March 3.