The Democrat’s House Target Lineup

By Jim Ellis

2018-us-house-racesOct. 22, 2018 — Democrats appear to be on the cusp of regaining the House majority, but actually achieving their goal is not yet guaranteed.

The Dems have accomplished three major objectives that have put them in position to claim the majority. They have recruited strong candidates, many with military service credentials, supported them with record-setting fundraising, and initiated viable competition in an incredible 95 Republican seats.

With the Democrats fielding so many candidates, it makes their odds of obtaining approximately 25 conversion victories reasonable. It is obviously much more realistic to clinch such a number when the competitive pool covers 95 congressional districts rather than 40 or even 50.

From the following group, the Dems will convert three seats, meaning they need a net 21 more to claim a bare majority at 218:

NJ-2 – Open – (Rep. LoBiondo) Jeff Van Drew (D) vs. Seth Grossman (R)
PA-5 – Vacant – (Rep. Meehan) Mary Gay Scanlon (D) vs. Pearl Kim (R)
PA-6 – Open – (Rep. Costello) Chrissy Houlahan (D) vs. Greg McCauley (R)

From the succeeding most competitive tier, the Dems need to win 21 of these 41 campaigns to claim a bare majority at 218:

AZ-2 – Open (Rep. McSally) – Ann Kirkpatrick (D) vs. Lea Marquez-Peterson (R)
CA-10 – Rep. Jeff Denham (R) vs. Josh Harder (D)
CA-25 – Rep. Steve Knight (R) vs. Katie Hill (D)
CA-39 – Open (Rep. Royce) – Young Kim (R) vs. Gil Cisneros (D)
CA-45 – Rep. Mimi Walters (R) vs. Katie Porter (D)
CA-48 – Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) vs. Harley Rouda (D)
CA-49 – Open (Rep. Issa) – Mike Levin (D) vs. Diane Harkey (R)
CA-50 – Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) vs. Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)
CO-6 – Rep. Mike Coffman (R) vs. Jason Crow (D)
FL-26 – Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) vs. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)
FL-27 – Open (Rep. Ros-Lehtinen) – Maria Elvira Salazar (R) vs. Donna Shalala (D)
IL-6 – Rep. Peter Roskam (R) vs. Sean Casten (D)
IL-12 – Rep. Mike Bost (R) vs. Brendan Kelly (D)
IA-1 – Rep. Rod Blum (R) vs. Abby Finkenauer (D)
IA-3 – Rep. David Young (R) vs. Cindy Axne (D)
KS-2 – Open (Rep. Jenkins) – Paul Davis (D) vs. Steve Watkins (R)
KS-3 – Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) vs. Sharice Davids (D)
KY-6 – Rep. Andy Barr (R) vs. Amy McGrath (D)
ME-2 – Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) vs. Jared Golden (D)
MI-8 – Rep. Mike Bishop (R) vs. Elissa Slotkin (D)
MI-11 – Open (Rep. Trott) – Haley Stevens (D) vs. Lena Epstein (R)
MN-2 – Rep. Jason Lewis (R) vs. Angie Craig (D)
MN-3 – Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) vs. Dean Phillips (D)

NJ-3 – Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) vs. Andy Kim (D)
NJ-7 – Rep. Leonard Lance (R) vs. Tom Malinowski (D)
NJ-11 – Open (Rep. Frelinghuysen) – Mikie Sherrill (D) vs. Jay Webber (R)
NM-2 – Open (Rep. Pearce) Xochitl – Torres-Small (D) vs. Yvette Harrell (R)
NY-19 – Rep. John Faso (R) vs. Antonio Delgado (D)
NY-22 – Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) vs. Anthony Brindisi (D)
NY-27 – Rep. Chris Collins (R) vs. Nate McMurray (D)
NC-9 – Open (Rep. Pittenger) – Dan McCready (D) vs. Mark Harris (R)
PA-1 – Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) vs. Scott Wallace (D)
PA-7 – Vacant (Rep. Dent) – Susan Wild (D) vs. Marty Nothstein (R)
PA-17 – Rep. Conor Lamb (D) vs. Rep. Keith Rothfus (R)
TX-7 – Rep. John Culberson (R) vs. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D)
TX-32 – Rep. Pete Sessions (R) vs. Colin Allred (D)
UT-4 – Rep. Mia Love (R) vs. Ben McAdams (D)
VA-2 – Rep. Scott Taylor (R) vs. Elaine Luria (D)
VA-7 – Rep. Dave Brat (R) vs. Abigail Spanberger (D)
VA-10 – Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) vs. Jennifer Wexton (D)
WA-8 – Open (Rep. Reichert) – Dino Rossi (R) vs. Kim Shrier (D)

Any Dem win from the following tier of 16 highly competitive seats either adds to the majority margin, supplants any goal not achieved in the previous two categories, and/or compensates for Republicans potentially winning back some Democratic seats:

CA-21 – Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. T.J. Cox (D)
FL-15 – Open (Rep. Ross) – Ross Spano (R) vs. Kristen Carlson (D)
FL-18 – Rep. Brian Mast (R) vs. Lauren Baer (D)
IL-14 – Rep. Randy Hultgren (R) vs. Lauren Underwood (D)
MI-6 – Rep. Fred Upton (R) vs. Matt Longjohn (D)
MT-AL – Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Kathleen Williams (D)
NY-11 – Rep. Dan Donovan (R) vs. Max Rose (D)N
NC-13 – Rep. Ted Budd (R) vs. Kathy Manning (D)
OH-1 – Rep. Steve Chabot (R) vs. Aftab Pureval (D)
OH-12 – Rep. Troy Balderson (R) vs. Danny O’Connor (D)
TX-23 – Rep. Will Hurd (R) vs. Gina Ortiz Jones (D)
TX-31 – Rep. John Carter (R) vs. M.J. Hegar (D)
WA-3 – Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler (R) vs. Carolyn Long (D)
WA-5 – Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) vs. Lisa Brown (D)
WI-6 – Rep. Glenn Grothman (R) vs. Dan Kohl (D)
WV-3 – Vacant (Rep. Jenkins) – Carol Miller (R) vs. Richard Ojeda (D)

Though the Republican candidate in each of the following 35 campaigns is a clear favorite, any Democratic upset accomplishes one or more of the aforementioned objectives:

AK-AL – Rep. Don Young (R) vs. Alyse Galvin (D)
AZ-8 – Rep. Debbie Lesko (R) vs. Hiral Tipirneni (D)
AR-2 – Rep. French Hill (R) vs. Clarke Tucker (D)
CA-4 – Rep. Tom McClintock (R) vs. Jessica Morse (D)
CA-22 – Rep. Devin Nunes (R) vs. Andrew Janz (D)
FL-6 – Vacant (Rep. DeSantis) – Mike Waltz (R) vs. Nancy Soderberg (D)
FL-16 – Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) vs. David Shapiro (D)
FL-25 – Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) vs. Mary Barzee Flores (D)
GA-6 – Rep. Karen Handel (R) vs. Lucy McBath (D)
GA-7 – Rep. Rob Woodall (R) vs. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D)
IL-13 – Rep. Rodney Davis (R) vs. Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D)
IN-2 – Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) vs. Mel Hall (D)
IN-9 – Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R) vs. Liz Watson (D)
IA-4 – Rep. Steve King (R) vs. J.D. Scholten (D)
MI-1 – Rep. Jack Bergman (R) vs. Matt Morgan (D)
MI-7 – Rep. Tim Walberg (R) vs. Gretchen Driskill (D)
MO-2 – Rep. Ann Wagner (R) vs. Cort VanOstran (D)
NE-2 – Rep. Don Bacon (R) vs. Kara Eastman (D)
NJ-4 – Rep. Chris Smith (R) vs. Josh Welle (D)
NY-1 – Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) vs. Perry Gershon (D)
NY-21 – Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) vs. Tedra Cobb (D)
NY-23 – Rep. Tom Reed (R) vs. Tracy Mitrano (D)
NY-24 – Rep. John Katko (R) vs. Dana Balter (D)
NC-2 – Rep. George Holding (R) vs. Linda Coleman (D)
OH-10 – Rep. Mike Turner (R) vs. Theresa Gasper (D)
OK-5 – Rep. Steve Russell (R) vs. Kendra Horn (D)
PA-16 – Rep. Mike Kelly (R) vs. Ron DiNicola (D)
SC-1 – Open (Rep. Sanford) – Katie Arrington (R) vs. Joe Cunningham (D)
TX-2 – Open (Rep. Poe) – Dan Crenshaw (R) vs. Todd Litton (D)
TX-3 – Open (Rep. Johnson) – Van Taylor (R) vs. Lorie Burch (D)
TX-6 – Open (Rep. Barton) – Ron Wright (R) vs. Janna Lynne Sanchez (D)
TX-22 – Rep. Pete Olson (R) vs. Sri Preston Kulkarni (D)
TX-24 – Rep. Kenny Marchant (R) vs. Jan McDowell (D)
VA-5 – Open (Rep. Garrett) – Denver Riggleman (R) vs. Leslie Cockburn (D)
WI-1 – Open (Rep. Ryan) – Bryan Steil (R) vs. Randy Bryce (D)

The Democrats, however, have at least 11 seats they must defend. If they fail to win in each of the following cases, their conversion number increases:

AZ-1 – Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D) vs. Wendy Rogers (R)
FL-7 – Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) vs. Mike Miller (R)
MA-3 – Open (Rep. Tsongas) – Lori Trahan (D) vs. Rick Green (R)
MA-9 – Rep. Bill Keating (D) vs. Peter Tedeschi (R)
MN-1 – Open (Rep. Walz) – Dan Feehan (D) vs. Jim Hagedorn (R)
MN-8 – Open (Rep. Nolan) – Joe Radinovich (D) vs. Pete Stauber (R)
NV-3 – Open (Rep. Rosen) – Susie Lee (D) vs. Danny Tarkanian (R)
NV-4 – Open (Rep. Kihuen) – Steven Horsford (D) vs. Cresent Hardy (R)
NH-1 – Open (Rep. Shea-Porter) – Chris Pappas (D) vs. Eddie Edwards (R)
PA-8 – Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) vs. John Chrin (R)
PA-14 – Open (Rep. Lamb) – Bibiana Boerio (D) vs. Guy Reschenthaler (R)

With just over two weeks remaining in the election cycle, and with both sides still holding major resources, many of these 106 races are simply too close to make accurate predictions. The cycle remains volatile, and though the Democrats are favored to wrest House control away from Republicans, the final margin may yield a very tight partisan division.

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