By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025
House
Texas Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock)
Five-term Texas Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock), chairman of the House Budget Committee, yesterday announcing that he won’t seek re-election next year, increased the number of retirement decisions to six in just the past 10 days.
In his retirement announcement, Rep. Arrington said, “I believe, as our founding fathers did, in citizen leadership – temporary service, not a career; and, it’s time to do what George Washington did, and to ride off into that big, beautiful West Texas sunset, and to live under the laws that I passed.”
Since 2010, we have seen the number of House open seats fall to anywhere between 48 and 64 in each election cycle. This year the pace of those voluntarily leaving Congress was slower until recently.
Now, the open-seat count, adding the newly drawn seats in Texas and California but not including the vacant districts in special elections (TN-7; TX-18) and the soon-to-be open seat in New Jersey (NJ-11; Governor-Elect Mikie Sherrill), lies at 40 with others to follow once candidate filing deadlines begin to appear on the political horizon.
We are about to see other seats open in California once members decide where they will run under the new map. We have already seen two Golden State members, Reps. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) and Ken Calvert (R-Corona), switch districts.
In northern California, Rep. Bera is eschewing his Sacramento County 6th District, where he would be the lone incumbent, to challenge 3rd District Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/ Sacramento) in a district that now favors the Democrats.
Speculation is underway that Rep. Kiley may depart his 3rd District for another seat, possibly even challenging fellow Republican Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) in the new 5th CD that stretches from the Sacramento suburbs south into the San Joaquin Valley of Central California.
In Southern California, Rep. Calvert found his 41st District broken into several pieces, thus forcing him into new District 40 to challenge fellow Republican Young Kim (R-La Habra). Other Los Angeles County members could be shifted to other seats as well and we may see Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) run in what is now a Democratic version of District 41. Expect to witness several interesting political musical chairs moves once the California redistricting dust begins to settle.
Of the 40 open seats, counting the three newly created seats from Texas redistricting, we see Rep. Arrington becoming the 12th exiting House member to retire from elective politics. Eleven are running for the Senate, an additional 11 have entered their state’s gubernatorial campaign, two are running for election in a different congressional district than the one they currently represent, and one, Texas Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), is running for state Attorney General.
In terms of the two special election districts, a new poll was released for the TN-7 race in the western Tennessee district from which four-term Rep. Mark Green (R) resigned to accept a position in the private sector.
A Workbench Strategy survey (Oct. 15-19; 400 likely TN-7 special election voters; 100 oversample of Democratic voters; live interview & text) found Republican former state cabinet official Matt Van Epps leading state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) by a 52-44 percent count.
A segment defined as “the most motivated voters” found the two candidates tied. This suggests that the Democrats have an enthusiasm edge, meaning this Dec. 2 general election could be closer than the Republican historical voting patterns would suggest.
The TX-18 race will go to a double Democratic runoff between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards. When the final totals become official, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule the runoff election, likely for a date in January.
With New Jersey Rep. Mike Sherrill (D-Montclair) being elected Governor last week, expect her to resign her congressional seat in mid-January just before taking the oath of office. She will then schedule a special election for voters to choose her successor.