The Polling Extremes

By Jim Ellis

July 31, 2020 — Two survey research organizations, Morning Consult and Change Research, just released the results of their recent battleground states polling series. Looking at all the recent public data in these places illustrates the polling volatility and movement within the states that will ultimately decide the presidential election.

The ballot test results listed for each state below illustrates the most extreme examples for President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden during the mid to late July period. With such a wide variance in most places, it is difficult to say with any certainty exactly how these defining states will actually perform come Election Day.

It is also important to take into account sample size, sample segmentation, and whether the poll was conducted through live interview, online questioning, or an interactive voice response system.

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ARIZONA
• Morning Consult (JULY 17-26, 908 likely Arizona voters)
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 49% (+7)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 42%
• Change Research (July 24-26, 365 likely Arizona voters; targeted online sample)
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 47% (+2)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 45%

Arizona surveys have consistently yielded small leads for Biden over the past several months. Most of the recent results find the candidates falling within the polling margin of error.

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FLORIDA
• Morning Consult (July 17-26, 3,593 likely Florida voters; online)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 48% (+1)
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 47%
• Quinnipiac University (July 16-20, 924 registered Florida voters; live interview)
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 51% (+13)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 38%

This is the most divergent spread within all of the battleground states. Florida’s polling history has routinely featured wide polling ranges that result in close election results.

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GEORGIA
• Trafalgar Group (July 15-10, 1,023 likely Georgia voters)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 50% (+7)
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 43%
• Garin Hart Yang Research (July 9-15, 800 likely Georgia voters; live interview)
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 47% (+4)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 43%

A huge 11-point swing is evident from polls taken within relatively the same time frame.

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MICHIGAN
• Change Research (July 24-26, 413 likely Michigan voters)
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 46% (+4)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 42%
• CNN (July 18-24;, 924 registered Michigan voters; live interview
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 52% (+12)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 40%

Biden has consistently led in Michigan, and the wide variance we see in these two polls is indicative of a larger pattern.

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NORTH CAROLINA
• Marist College (July 14-22, 882 registered North Carolina voters; live interview)
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 51% (+7)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 44%
• Spry Strategies (July 12-16, 700 likely North Carolina voters; interactive voice response system)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 49% (+3)
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 46%

North Carolina is no stranger to wide-ranging polls and close final results, as we have seen through many such surveys here throughout various election cycles.

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PENNSYLVANIA
• Fox News (July 18-20, 793 registered Pennsylvania voters; live interview)
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 50% (+11)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 39%
• Spry Strategies (July 15-20, 700 likely Pennsylvania voters; interactive voice response system)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 48% (+1)
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 47%

Generally, Biden leads in Pennsylvania surveys, but his advantage has been getting tighter over the past few weeks. From the three most recently released surveys, the Biden lead averages 4.3 percentage points.

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TEXAS
• Morning Consult (July 17-26, 2,685 likely Texas voters; live interview within repeating samples)
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 47% (+2)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 45%
• Spry Strategies (July 16-20, 750 likely Texas voters; interactive voice response system)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 49% (+4)
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 45%

Texas is polling close and often shows better survey numbers for Democrats than actual votes when cast. Still, the state is changing and becoming more politically competitive.

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WISCONSIN
• Morning Consult (July 17-26, 809 likely Wisconsin voters; live interview within repeating samples)
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 50% (+7)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 43%
• Spry Strategies (July 15-20, 700 likely Wisconsin voters; interactive voice response system)
Joe Biden (D) ………….. 46% (+1)
Donald Trump (R) ……. 45%

In 2016, Trump only polled ahead in one survey from 33 polls conducted here throughout the election cycle; yet, he won the state on election day by a small margin.