Author Archives: Jim Ellis

Cornyn Rebounds

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2025

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

For the first time this year, Sen. John Cornyn has posted a polling lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton in their 2026 Texas Republican primary battle.

Emerson College tested the Lone Star State electorate (Aug. 11-12; 1,000 registered Texas voters; 491 self-identified Texas Republican voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results project Sen. Cornyn only edging AG Paxton by a scant 30-29 percent, but the survey clearly shows positive movement for the veteran incumbent.

A dozen Republican primary polls, including the current Emerson College study, have been released since the beginning of the year from 12 different pollsters (eight Republican firms, one Democratic pollster, and three university research departments).

Though the Emerson data still shows weakness for Sen. Cornyn, it detects a vastly improved incumbent standing. In the 11 polls conducted prior to Emerson’s, Paxton averaged a lead of just under 16 percentage points. In seven of the 11, the three-term AG reached or topped the 50 percent mark.

More data needs to be studied in order to confirm this new trend, especially since the Emerson poll consisted of registered voters as opposed to those likely to cast their ballot in a Republican primary. Additionally, the sample size of 491 self-identified Republicans is low for a state the size of Texas and one where GOP primary turnout reached almost 2 million voters the last time Sen. Cornyn appeared on the ballot (2020). Furthermore, the fact that Sen. Cornyn only reached a 30 percent preference figure is also a negative sign for a four-term incumbent within his own party.

Conversely, the results clearly show movement in Cornyn’s favor and coincide with a recent Cornyn campaign blitz designed to intensify a Paxton negative personal image. The new poll results suggest the Cornyn campaign strategy is working as Paxton is losing support even though the Senator’s preference number doesn’t yet appear to be rising. In the previously mentioned dozen polls, Emerson inclusive, Sen. Cornyn’s average is 33.2 percent.

The 2026 Texas Senate race will be exorbitantly expensive. In 2024, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and then-Rep. Colin Allred (D), including approximately $64 million in outside expenditures that helped both candidates, spent an aggregate of $266 million. It is probable that such an amount will be equaled or topped in 2026.

According to the 2nd Quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports for the current election cycle, Sen. Cornyn has raised over $9.8 million for the 2026 campaign and holds almost $9 million in his campaign account. Paxton reported campaign receipts of $2.9 million with slightly over $2.5 million cash-on-hand.

Because he is a recently announced 2026 candidate, Allred has not yet had to file a disclosure report for the current campaign. For his 2024 effort, Allred raised over $94 million, a total that ranked as fourth-best among all Senate candidates. Therefore, we can again expect to see him well-funded for the coming campaign.

There is still some discussion that former Congressman, ex-US Senate, and former presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke could enter the ’26 Senate campaign. If he were to become a candidate, the Democratic primary would also become competitive. Since the Allred announcement, however, talk of an O’Rourke Senate campaign has faded, though the former El Paso Congressman is certainly politically active.

O’Rourke began raising money to fund the state House Representatives who fled Texas in order to prevent obtaining a quorum in the special legislative session. The politicians made their move to at least postpone the legislature from passing a new congressional redistricting map.

Because a law was passed to fine any member who purposely missed session for legislative purposes, O’Rourke went to work funding a non-profit political organization to pay the amassed fines. A Texas judge has struck down his effort, however, since the law purposely prevented political money from being used to pay the personal fines.

Along with Arkansas and North Carolina, the March 3 Texas primary is the earliest in the nation. Therefore, we can expect to see heavy political action coming from the Lone Star State during the latter half of this year.

California Redistricting:
The Five Targeted Seats

The proposed congressional map by California Democrats, (left) and the current map (right). Click on map to see larger image. Graphic: Dave’s Redistricting App / Joshua Metcalf)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2025

Redistricting

The California proposed retribution redistricting map that key staff members at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) drew is now public, and the process to adopt such a plan is beginning this week.

In order for the California Governor and legislators to replace their current congressional map before the 2030 census is completed, the leadership must find a way to usurp the California Citizens Redistricting Commission that the voters instituted through a 2010 ballot measure. The only way to cancel the Commission map, Gov. Gavin Newsom and the majority Democrats believe, is to have another vote of the people to directly adopt a specific new map.

While the Newsom et al interpretation will likely be subject to a lawsuit with the objective of halting the process, the legislature this week will vote on a measure to place a new congressional map on a special election ballot this November. To approve a ballot referendum, each legislative chamber must do so with a two-thirds super majority. Considering the Democrats hold well over two-thirds of the seats in both the state Assembly and state Senate, placing the referendum on the ballot will likely be achieved.

Whether a majority of special election voters will adopt the map is open to question. For years, voters have listened to arguments about enacting “fair” district maps. In fact, this argument was the crux of the 2010 initiative campaign to create the citizens’ commission and 61.3 percent of the voters did so. Yet, in this special election, the message coming from Democratic leaders will now be to ‘vote yes for gerrymandering.’

Therefore, getting a majority vote on such a measure may be a more difficult political task than Gov. Newsom and his cohorts currently believe.

Thanks to the statisticians at The Down Ballot political blog, we see the data behind the proposed district configurations. The very rapidly completed calculations tell us how the 2024 and 2020 presidential elections unfolded in every new district. The statisticians also calculated how much of each current district is included in a new 2026 district.

To put the new map in context, we must remember that the current delegation is comprised of 43 Democrats and just nine Republicans. The new map is projected to possibly take the Republicans down to as few as four seats.

As we know, the DCCC California map is drawn as a retaliatory move against the new Texas redistricting plan that could be adopted this week. Projections suggest that the new map could yield as many as five additional GOP seats.

It remains an important point to underscore that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) added redistricting issue to his special session in response to a US Justice Department directive to redraw the map. The DOJ cited a recent en banc US 5th Circuit Court of Appeals minority districts ruling that now cause some of the state’s congressional districts to become illegal.

The California Republican US House members facing the most difficult re-election situations, should the proposed map become law, are Reps. Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville; District 1), Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento; District 3), and Ken Calvert (R-Corona; District 41).

Another GOP member, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego; District 48), would find himself in a much more competitive re-election campaign, while Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford; District 22), would see his already Democratic-leaning seat further help a Democratic candidate. President Trump, however, still carried the new District 22.

Rep. LaMalfa’s new 1st District, according to The Down Ballot statisticians, would contain just 43.8 percent of his current constituency and transform from a 61 percent Trump district to a 54 percent Kamala Harris CD.

Rep. Kiley would retain 46.8 percent of his current 3rd CD, and sees the presidential index move from 50 percent Trump to 55 percent Harris. Based upon his residence, he would technically be paired with Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento; District 6), but he would likely seek re-election in CA-3.

Rep. Calvert would find himself in the worst position of all the Republicans. A total of 50.5 percent of his current 41st District constituency would be placed in new District 38, which is 56 percent Harris and could mean a pairing with Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier; District 38), though it is likely she would run in new District 41. Most of Rep. Sanchez’s constituents are in either District 38 or District 31 that fellow Democrat Gil Cisneros (D-Covina) holds, but District 41 could be open, carries a Kamala Harris percentage of 57, and runs adjacent to her current district.

Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) would find most of her constituency in new District 41, but a third of her voters are in new District 40, which is a 56 percent Trump seat and does not have an incumbent. We could see Kim and Calvert both running for this seat.

The Issa 48th CD would keep only 32.3 percent of its current population base, while the presidential index moves from 56 percent Trump to 52 percent Harris.

Finally for the Republicans, the Valadao 22nd District keeps 84.3 percent of its current constituency and moves from 52 percent Trump to 50 percent Trump. Therefore, the region is not as partisan as some other district iterations that Congressman Valadao has previously faced.

The other Democrats most affected would be Reps. Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach; District 42) who would retain only 35.2 percent of his constituency base; Dave Min (D-Irvine; District 47) would lose a majority of his current seat (52.7 percent), but his new territory is much more Democratic; while Scott Peters (D-San Diego; District 50) would keep only 43.5 percent of his current constituency.

While these Democratic members would be in strong shape against a Republican, a series of strong Democratic candidates could pose individual threats to each.

Texas Redistricting:
Doggett/Casar Paired in New TX-37

To see this and more detailed maps and District breakdowns go to data.capitol.texas.gov.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 18, 2025

House

With the Texas House Democrats likely returning to Austin this week for a new legislative special session, the Republican redistricting map appears set to become law.

The new plan is drawn in response to the US Justice Department informing the state leadership that a recent en banc 5th Circuit Court of Appeals decision pertaining to minority district composition made certain Texas congressional districts illegal.

For political reasons, Republicans are making the most of the redrawing opportunity to craft more favorable districts for their incumbents and candidates. With the Hispanic vote particularly in South Texas turning more GOP favorable, a new map has the potential of producing significant Republican gains.

A byproduct of the redraw is the pairing of several Democratic US House members in newly constructed districts. The one attracting the most attention occurs in Travis County, where Austin-based House members Lloyd Doggett and Greg Casar are preparing for a head-on battle to represent the new 37th CD, which is fully contained within the county and will be heavily Democratic.

Earlier this week, Rep. Doggett released an open letter to his key supporters informing them of his intention to run in new District 37 and suggesting Rep. Casar run in the new 35th District. The 35th contains none of Travis County and is anchored in San Antonio, but a district in which Casar currently sees an approximate 10 percent overlay between the population of his current CD and that part of the new TX-35.

Part of the new CD 35 configuration is similar to Rep. Casar’s current Austin-anchored district, but the addition of Republican voting counties east of San Antonio help create a significantly Hispanic seat that President Trump carried by approximately 10 percentage points.

Casar, who is currently the chairman of the House Progressive Caucus and served for seven years on the Austin City Council, quickly rejected Rep. Doggett’s suggestion. Therefore, we can expect both men to compete for new District 37.

The new 37th, however, is comprised mostly of Rep. Doggett’s territory from his current 37th CD. In the new configuration, 68 percent of the new TX-37’s populace is currently in Rep. Doggett’s domain versus just 32 percent who reside in Rep. Casar’s current district, according to The Down Ballot political blog researchers.

The Federal Election Commission 2nd Quarter disclosure reports also reveal another major Doggett edge. For the ’26 election cycle, Rep. Doggett has raised only a little over $130,000 but sits on a war chest of more than $6.2 million. Rep. Casar posted in excess of $264,000 raised for the current year and holds slightly over $450,000 in his campaign account, less than 10 percent of the money that Rep. Doggett commands.

The looming Doggett-Casar contest is another example of some Democratic primaries popping up around the country that pit an older incumbent against a young rising star. In this case, Rep. Doggett is 78 years old and will be 80 by the time of the next election. He has been a House member since 1995.

Prior to winning a congressional seat, Doggett served as a Justice of the Texas Supreme Court after initially winning election to the state Senate in a 1973 special election. He also ran unsuccessfully for the US Senate in 1984, losing to Republican Phil Gramm.

Casar, 36, was elected to the House in 2022 after taking his seat on the Austin City Council in 2014. An advantage he may have in the new 37th is the large Travis County Hispanic population. The new district configuration yields a Hispanic base of close to 38 percent, but the proportion will certainly be higher among likely Democratic primary voters. The remainder of the populace is comprised of approximately 44 percent Anglo residents, 10 percent who are Black, and eight percent Asian.

The Texas map also pairs Democratic members in two other districts. It is likely that Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) would lose his Tarrant County power base and run in a new 33rd CD that is fully contained within Dallas County. It is possible that freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch/Dallas), who faces only poor options for re-election, could run against Rep. Veasey.

In Houston, the winner of the November (and possibly early January election should the first vote lead to a runoff, which is likely) special election will have to immediately turn around and face veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in a new 18th CD that will contain a large portion of the Congressman’s current 9th District.

Once the map becomes law, incumbents and candidates will then make definitive decisions regarding the districts in which they will run.

Krishnamoorthi Expands Lead;
A Crowded 32-Candidate TX-18 Field

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 15, 2025

Senate

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg)

A new survey conducted for a Super PAC supporting Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) finds the Congressman expanding his previous lead in the open US Senate Democratic primary. Three major candidates are vying for the opportunity of succeeding retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).

According to the A to Z poll (conducted for the Impact Fund Super PAC; Aug. 8-10; 615 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; online), Rep. Krishnamoorthi holds a 38-17-7 percent lead over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), respectively. When those leaning to one of the candidates are added, the Krishnamoorthi advantage expands to 51-28-13 percent.

In June, the GBAO research firm released an Illinois Senate survey (June 5-10; 1,200 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters) that posted Krishnamoorthi to a 32-19-14 percent edge over Lt. Gov. Stratton and Rep. Kelly.

The northern Illinois Congressman also leads in another critical category, that of fundraising. According to the 2nd Quarter Federal Election Commission campaign finance disclosure reports, Rep. Krishnamoorthi had raised at the June 30 reporting deadline almost $12.7 million with a cash-on-hand figure of $11.76 million, far above his two opponents. Stratton, who entered the race in late April, attracted just over $1 million and held $666,000 in her federal campaign account. Rep. Kelly posted $2.4 million in receipts and $2.2 million cash-on-hand.

It is likely that each candidate will see support coming from outside organizations, and it is a certainty that the Impact Fund will be spending to help Krishnamoorthi.

Stratton is counting on Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), who has endorsed her candidacy, and his allies to come to the table with financial support, but such has yet to materialize. Rep. Kelly will likely have enough in the way of financial backing to be competitive, but the early indicators are certainly pointing Rep. Krishnamoorthi’s way.

The March 17 plurality primary is the actual election in Illinois since it is unlikely the Republican Party will be able to field a credible candidate to compete in a state so solidly in the Democratic camp. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 55.5D – 39.9R Illinois partisan lean.

In the past two national elections, President Trump lost in the Land of Lincoln. In 2020, President Biden defeated him 57-41 percent, and Kamala Harris posted a 54-43 percent victory margin last November.

TX-18

A new internal campaign poll was released of the TX-18 special election scheduled for Nov. 4. A large field of 32 announced candidates are competing for the opportunity of replacing the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston). The eventual winner, however, may have a very short tenure in Congress.

Former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-statewide candidate Amanda Edwards (D) released the results of her campaign’s Brilliant Corners survey (July 20-23; 500 likely TX-18 special election voters; live interview) and found Edwards leading former Miss Universe contestant Carmen Maria Montiel (R), state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D-Houston), Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D), and George Foreman IV (I), 18-12-11-10-6 percent, respectively.

The results slightly conflict with a University of Houston poll conducted earlier in July (July 9-18; 400 likely TX-18 registered voters from a sample pool of 2,300 Harris County registered voters; SMS text) that found Edwards and Menefee tied with 19 percent, Montiel and Jones deadlocked at 14 percent preference, and Foreman posting four percent support.

The concluding analysis suggests that no one even reaching the 20 percent support plateau translates into a wide open race with much time remaining before voters begin to cast their ballots. Considering the volume of candidates, even if several do not ultimately qualify, it becomes a foregone conclusion that the contest will advance to a runoff election between the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation. After the initial vote, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule the runoff once the primary result becomes official.

Yet, regardless of the special election outcome it is likely when the new redistricting map passes that the winner will be paired in a new 18th District with Rep. Al Green (D-Houston).

Therefore, the new congressional member will immediately find him or herself in a primary campaign, likely against Rep. Green, that will be held March 3. Thus, having to compete in a runoff election probably in early January only then be forced to face Rep. Green in a partisan Democratic primary just weeks later will likely be enough to yield the special election winner a very limited congressional tenure.

Ex-Sen. Sherrod Brown Returns

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 14, 2025

Senate

Former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) announced earlier this week that he will return for a comeback attempt next year after losing his seat last November to Republican Bernie Moreno.

Though Brown is a prodigious fundraiser and has had a successful decades-long political career, the numbers suggest reversing his 2024 loss will be a formidable task.

Last November, now-Sen. Moreno defeated Brown by 206,434 votes, or a victory percentage margin of 50.1 – 46.5. What makes Brown’s task more difficult in 2026 is that he actually received more votes in his defeat than he did in winning his previous election, a 2018 re-election victory over then-Rep. Jim Renacci (R). The cumulative results suggest the state is undergoing a major electoral shift.

In 2018, then-Sen. Brown was re-elected to a third term with a 53.4 – 46.6 percent win over Renacci. In that election, he garnered 2,355,923 votes. In his losing 2024 campaign, Sen. Brown’s vote total was 2,650,949, or 295,026 votes more than he received in his 2018 winning campaign.

In reality, even though Brown increased his vote total from six years previously, the 2024 end result proved a major underperformance. Because the Ohio turnout in the 2024 presidential election year was 29.2 percent higher than in the 2018 mid-term election, Sen. Brown would have needed to increase his vote total by 690,914 votes just to keep pace with his winning vote ratio from seven years ago.

Therefore, even with growing his vote total in 2024, Brown’s vote performance as it relates to his previous victory was substantially deficient.

In terms of the Ohio political landscape, Sen. Brown carried only 16 of the state’s 88 counties in 2018, yet his margins were large enough in the big counties to record a comfortable victory. In 2024, the counties he carried were cut in half, dropping to just eight of the 88 local entities.

Comparing Sen. Brown’s county win totals to that of President Biden in the same election year of 2024, the latter man carried one less. Only Lorain County, which Brown represented when he was in the US House and state legislature, voted for him in 2024, but chose President Trump in the national election. The other seven Biden counties also voted for Brown. The same seven counties supported Biden in 2020.

The loyal Democratic counties are no surprise and begin with the entities housing the three cities known as Ohio’s “C-PAC,” Cincinnati (Hamilton County), Cleveland (Cuyahoga), and Columbus (Franklin). The other counties continuing to vote Democratic are Lucas (Toledo), Montgomery (Dayton), and Summit (Akron). The only rural county voting with the Democrats lies along the state’s southeastern border shared with West Virginia, Athens County.

Therefore, for Brown, or any other statewide Ohio Democrat, to gain traction, the party nominees will have to substantially increase their performance over what we saw in 2024 and even 2020.

Though his vote totals did not yield a re-election victory, Sen. Brown did oversee a very successful 2024 fundraising operation. His campaign raised just over $103 million for his failed re-election effort, which was the second highest of any US Senate candidate, behind only Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R) $107-plus million from a state more than twice the size of Ohio.

In contrast, Moreno raised just less than $27 million, which included a personal loan of $4.5 million to his campaign account. Outside spending, however, evened the resource imbalance, accounting for over $190 million toward the Republican cause as compared to just beyond $95 million to assist the Democratic side.

After the 2024 campaign, Brown reported a cash-on-hand figure of $394,230. Since he has not, heretofore, become an official candidate, we will not see a Brown campaign financial disclosure statement until mid-October.

For his part, appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) has had a robust fundraising spurt since assuming the office after then-Sen. J.D. Vance (R) departed to become Vice President. Sen. Husted has raised just over $3 million and reports $2.65 million in his campaign account.

Sen. Husted is also an accomplished Ohio politician. Before running as Lieutenant Governor on Gov. Mike DeWine’s (R) ticket in the past two gubernatorial statewide elections, Husted was twice elected as Ohio’s Secretary of State, won an election to the state Senate, and served four terms in the state House of Representatives, including four years as Speaker.

The 2026 Ohio campaign appears to be another Senate race where we can already identify the general election combatants. Watch for another very expensive campaign to unfold, but with Ohio’s move to the right, Sen. Husted should be considered the favored candidate. The 2026 special election winner will serve the balance of the current term and then be eligible to run for a six-year term in 2028.

Murkowski for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025

Governor

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R)

It might have been an off-handed comment in response to a reporter’s question, but late last week Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) confirmed that she is “considering” entering the open Alaska Governor’s race next year.

Almost simultaneously, a Data for Progress survey from July was publicly released (July 21-27; 678 likely Alaska jungle primary voters; text from an online sample pool) and it finds former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) leading businesswoman and former radio talk show host Bernadette Wilson (R) and Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 40-11-10 percent in a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial jungle primary poll.

Most believe the Governor’s race would dramatically change if Sen. Murkowski were to enter, though she was not added to the DfP ballot test. For her part, Peltola, who was defeated for re-election in November but still maintains positive name identification, has yet to officially enter the Governor’s race though recent comments lead most observers to believe that she will run.

Should Sen. Murkowski enter the Governor’s race, that would certainly change the budding campaign’s trajectory. The Republican candidates appear weak, at least in the early phase, and adding Sen. Murkowski to the candidate list would certainly make a more interesting contest. Yet, would she overtake Peltola?

According to the Data for Progress poll, Sen. Murkowski is not popular right now and certainly not with Republican voters. DfP tested 13 well-known Alaska political figures and Sen. Murkowski posted a 37:60 percent favorable to unfavorable image, the worst among all who were included. It in important to note, however, that only four of the 13 tested individuals scored in positive numbers (Peltola, President Trump, former state Sen. Tom Begich, and Wilson) and only Peltola had a positive rating of more than plus-5 percentage points.

Examining the poll’s crosstabs, we see in terms of partisan support that Sen. Murkowski performs better among Democrats than she does with Independents and her own Republican Party voters. Within the Democratic cell segment, her favorability index is 61:35 percent favorable to unfavorable. This compares with a 38:59 percent ratio among self-identified Independent survey respondents and a terrible 23:74 percent among Republicans.

Despite her poor ratings, the unique Alaska election system plays to Sen. Murkowski’s favor. A 2020 ballot initiative that the Murkowski forces supported created a Top Four jungle primary system that adds Ranked Choice Voting rounds if no one receives majority support on the initial vote. The measure was adopted with 50.5 percent of the statewide vote.

In 2024, the Top Four system opponents qualified a ballot initiative to return to the previous partisan primary system. The Top Four survived with a bare 50.1 percent of the vote.

Sen. Murkowski is the chief beneficiary of the Alaska system because she no longer must win renomination in a Republican primary. Therefore, if she were to enter an open Governor’s election, Murkowski would again easily capture one of the four available positions for advancement into the general election. Once in the November campaign, her ability to win general elections would again come to the forefront.

In her career after her father, then-Governor and former US Sen. Frank Murkowski (R), appointed her to the Senate in 2002, Lisa Murkowski has only averaged 46.6 percent of the vote in winning largely plurality elections mostly because Alaska typically features many Independent and minor party candidates in its elections.

The Murkowski average includes the 53.7 percent she received in 2022, but that higher percentage came through three rounds of Ranked Choice Voting. Her initial 2022 percentage prior to advancing into the RCV rounds was 43.4 percent. Therefore, her four-election average without the Ranked Choice system would be 44.0 percent. In 2010, she was upset in the Republican primary but won the general election as a write-in Independent candidate with only 39.7 percent of the vote but topping both a Republican and Democratic nominee.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate an Alaska partisan lean of 52.8R – 41.8D. President Trump slightly exceeded the aggregate partisan lean in all three of his elections (54.5 – 41.4 percent over Kamala Harris; 53.1 – 43.0 percent opposite President Biden; and 51.3 – 36.6 percent against Hillary Clinton), while Sen. Murkowski typically runs significantly below the Republican benchmark.

Soon we will see if the Senator’s comment about “considering” the Governor’s race will prove more than a flippant response. If so, then the open Alaska Governor’s campaign will certainly become more interesting.

New Georgia Senate Polling

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2025

Senate

One of the tightest 2026 US Senate races is sure to be found in the Peach State of Georgia and a new statewide poll already confirms a developing toss-up general election.

The TIPP Poll organization released the results of their new survey (July 28-Aug. 1; 2,956 registered Georgia voters; online) that forecasts Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) potentially as Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D) top challenger. According to the related ballot test, Sen. Ossoff’s edge over Rep. Collins would be a scant 45-44 percent.

The other Republican candidates also poll well against Sen. Ossoff but draw less support than Rep. Collins. Savannah area Congressman Buddy Carter (R-Pooler) would pull within 44-40 percent of Sen. Ossoff. Former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, son of legendary Georgia University football coach Vince Dooley, would trail 44-39 percent in a hypothetical general election pairing with the first-term incumbent.

The results are not surprising. The Georgia electorate has returned some of the closest election results in the country since the 2018 Governor’s race that found current incumbent Brian Kemp (R) nipping Democrat Stacey Abrams by just over one percentage point.

The 2020 presidential race saw Joe Biden slipping past President Trump by only 11,779 votes from almost 5 million cast ballots.

Both 2020 Senate races were forced to runoff elections (Georgia had a special election that year to replace Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) who had resigned for health reasons prior to him passing away). Two years later, the race for a full term between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Herschel Walker also moved into a post-election runoff.

In the 2024 presidential vote, Trump defeated President Biden, 50.7 – 48.5 percent by a more comfortable margin of 115,100 votes from more than 5.2 million cast ballots, but still a close final tally.

Additionally, Georgia is also one of the few states that holds a post-general election runoff should no candidate receive majority support (Mississippi is another and Louisiana is changing from their jungle primary/December runoff system to a traditional primary and general election beginning in 2026), and the ’26 Senate race advancing into political overtime is certainly a distinct possibility.

With this backdrop, we can expect another series of close Peach State elections led by its Senate and open Governor races. Therefore, the early TIPP general election poll already showing a dead heat comes with little surprise.

Before the general election begins, Republicans are likely to face a tough primary campaign where the top two finishers in the May 19 GOP nomination contest advance into a June 16 runoff election.

TIPP also surveyed the likely Republican primary voters and found Rep. Collins leading Rep. Carter and Mr. Dooley, 25-19-7 percent. Familiarity with the Republican candidates is not particularly high, however. This means the candidates will have to spend heavily in the primary just to win the right to challenge Sen. Ossoff.

A total of 44 percent of the tested polling sample expressed familiarity with Rep. Carter, 42 percent could identify Rep. Collins, and 37 percent recognized Derek Dooley’s name. The latter man won Gov. Kemp’s endorsement, and the Kemp leadership PAC is pledging to spend early to help educate the voters about Dooley. At this point, President Trump has not endorsed a Republican primary candidate, but all are seeking his support.

Resources in the general election, though both sides can expect millions of outside Super PAC money coming into the state to assist their efforts, will likely favor the incumbent Democrat. Already, Sen. Ossoff is the top fundraiser in the country after the latest disclosure reports became public.

The Senator, since his original election in 2020, has raised almost $42 million, but spent $30.8 million largely to clear expenses from the ’20 campaign and to support his substantial fundraising operation. Still, the Senator holds almost $15.5 million in his campaign account according to the June 30 Federal Election Commission finance report.

Rep. Carter is in the strongest financial position among Republicans. His receipts through the second quarter of 2025 top $3.5 million, but that includes a loan to the campaign of $2 million. His cash-on-hand total exceeds $4 million.

Rep. Collins is considerably behind, raising $745,883 since the beginning of the year and posting just over $1 million in the bank. Dooley, who recently became an official candidate, will file his first campaign financial disclosure report on Sept. 30.

Along with the Michigan and North Carolina Senate races, we can count on the Georgia Senate contest attracting a major share of national political attention next year.