By Jim Ellis
Oct. 22, 2018 — Democrats appear to be on the cusp of regaining the House majority, but actually achieving their goal is not yet guaranteed.
The Dems have accomplished three major objectives that have put them in position to claim the majority. They have recruited strong candidates, many with military service credentials, supported them with record-setting fundraising, and initiated viable competition in an incredible 95 Republican seats.
With the Democrats fielding so many candidates, it makes their odds of obtaining approximately 25 conversion victories reasonable. It is obviously much more realistic to clinch such a number when the competitive pool covers 95 congressional districts rather than 40 or even 50.
From the following group, the Dems will convert three seats, meaning they need a net 21 more to claim a bare majority at 218:
• NJ-2 – Open – (Rep. LoBiondo) Jeff Van Drew (D) vs. Seth Grossman (R)
• PA-5 – Vacant – (Rep. Meehan) Mary Gay Scanlon (D) vs. Pearl Kim (R)
• PA-6 – Open – (Rep. Costello) Chrissy Houlahan (D) vs. Greg McCauley (R)
From the succeeding most competitive tier, the Dems need to win 21 of these 41 campaigns to claim a bare majority at 218:
• AZ-2 – Open (Rep. McSally) – Ann Kirkpatrick (D) vs. Lea Marquez-Peterson (R)
• CA-10 – Rep. Jeff Denham (R) vs. Josh Harder (D)
• CA-25 – Rep. Steve Knight (R) vs. Katie Hill (D)
• CA-39 – Open (Rep. Royce) – Young Kim (R) vs. Gil Cisneros (D)
• CA-45 – Rep. Mimi Walters (R) vs. Katie Porter (D)
• CA-48 – Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) vs. Harley Rouda (D)
• CA-49 – Open (Rep. Issa) – Mike Levin (D) vs. Diane Harkey (R)
• CA-50 – Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) vs. Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)
• CO-6 – Rep. Mike Coffman (R) vs. Jason Crow (D)
• FL-26 – Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) vs. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)
• FL-27 – Open (Rep. Ros-Lehtinen) – Maria Elvira Salazar (R) vs. Donna Shalala (D)
• IL-6 – Rep. Peter Roskam (R) vs. Sean Casten (D)
• IL-12 – Rep. Mike Bost (R) vs. Brendan Kelly (D)
• IA-1 – Rep. Rod Blum (R) vs. Abby Finkenauer (D)
• IA-3 – Rep. David Young (R) vs. Cindy Axne (D)
• KS-2 – Open (Rep. Jenkins) – Paul Davis (D) vs. Steve Watkins (R)
• KS-3 – Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) vs. Sharice Davids (D)
• KY-6 – Rep. Andy Barr (R) vs. Amy McGrath (D)
• ME-2 – Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) vs. Jared Golden (D)
• MI-8 – Rep. Mike Bishop (R) vs. Elissa Slotkin (D)
• MI-11 – Open (Rep. Trott) – Haley Stevens (D) vs. Lena Epstein (R)
• MN-2 – Rep. Jason Lewis (R) vs. Angie Craig (D)
• MN-3 – Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) vs. Dean Phillips (D)
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