By Jim Ellis
July 17, 2017 — There is a great deal of political chatter discussing the Democrats’ chances to assume the House majority in the 2018 elections, but one key facet that must work for them is not yet in place.
For an out-party to wrest the majority away from their counterparts who control the body, a large number of open seats must change hands. So far, after three consecutive election cycles that featured large numbers of open seats – a cumulative 158 since 2012 inclusive, counting the 20 new seats that reapportionment and redistricting created at the beginning of the decade – only 15 CDs so far will be open next year in addition to the UT-3 special election that will be filled this coming November.
To make matters even more difficult for Democrats, just one open Republican seat, that of retiring Florida Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami), can reasonably be considered a toss-up. This compares to two Democratic opens, those of Reps. Tim Walz (D-MN; running for governor) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV; running for Senate), which now reside in the pick ‘em category.