Daily Archives: September 19, 2016

Detecting a Senate Swing

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 19, 2016 — During the past few days a series of new independent polls were released in key Senate states and, for the most part, the results portend a clear shift toward Republican candidates. These results transforming into a cumulative anomaly remain a possibility, but it is too early to tell if what we’re seeing is just a quirky blip or the beginning of a sustaining trend.

The CNN/ORC Florida poll (Sept. 7-12; 788 likely Florida voters) projects a major swing in favor of Sen. Marco Rubio (R), 54-43 percent over Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter).

CNN/ORC also surveyed Ohio (Sept. 7-12; 769 likely Ohio voters) and detected a similar push in favor of Sen. Rob Portman, except larger: 58-37 percent. The Bloomberg/Selzer poll (Sept. 9-12; 802 likely Ohio voters) active during the same sampling period echoes the latter survey. Their Portman margin is 53-36 percent. Former Gov. Ted Strickland is Sen. Portman’s Democratic opponent.

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