Tag Archives: Saikat Chakrabarti

The Pelosi Challenge Deepens

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025

House

California state Sen. Scott Weiner

Early this year, former Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaign manager Saikat Chakrabarti announced that he would challenge 20-term California Representative and former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) in the state’s 2026 jungle primary. A new development makes this challenger race more interesting.

Aside from Chakrabarti, who is independently wealthy and loaned his campaign $755,000, a new challenger is coming forward. Three-term state Sen. Scott Weiner (D-San Francisco) is now saying that he too will join the race to unseat Pelosi, who can be described as a national Democratic political icon.

Weiner, who was elected to the San Francisco City and County consolidated Board of Supervisors in 2010, ran for and was elected to the state Senate in 2016. Under California election law, state legislators may serve six two-year terms in the state Assembly, or three four-year terms in the state Senate. Should one run for the Assembly and then move to the Senate, the time of service carries over from one house to the other.

While Sen. Weiner can remain in his present position through 2028, he no longer is eligible to seek re-election; therefore, his political situation instills greater impetus to become a congressional candidate.

It has long been surmised that Sen. Weiner would run for Congress as soon as Pelosi retired. Their constituencies almost perfectly overlap, though California state Senate seats are approximately 30 percent larger than US House districts. Many expected the Congresswoman to retire from politics after she left the Speakership, but she has twice been re-elected to the House since publicly deciding to leave her leadership position.

The 2026 11th District congressional race now becomes intriguing. The California jungle primary law requires two individuals to move into the general election regardless of political party affiliation or vote percentage attained. With an overwhelmingly large Democratic CD-11 constituency (a percentage beakdown of 63.5D – 7.5R) it is quite possible for two Democrats to advance into the general election.

Because her political longevity is fundamentally based upon maintaining a strong base at home, Pelosi would assuredly clinch one of the general election slots. With his own strong vote history, one would surmise that Sen. Weiner would be the betting favorite to clinch the second slot. Should such occur, we would see Pelosi facing a competitive opponent for virtually all of calendar year 2026.

Regardless of who eventually runs, Rep. Pelosi must be considered the favorite for re-election even against strong opponents. As we know, she has dominated San Francisco politics for four decades, and rarely has even drawn a credible opponent.

This being the case, why would Sen. Weiner want to enter a race that he would lose especially with so few policy differences existing between he and the former House Speaker? Positioning may be the answer.

Because Sen. Weiner has a four-year term, he can run for Congress in 2026 and not risk his state Senate seat. Secondly, taking advantage of Chakrabarti already spending money against Pelosi, a Weiner entrance may encourage the Congresswoman to retire in order to avoid a competitive campaign at her advanced age. If so, Sen. Weiner becomes the candidate to beat in an open seat situation.

Third, should the former Speaker remain in the race and Weiner loses, he is virtually guaranteed to fare better than any other person to have ever challenged her. Thus, he would be well positioned as the heir apparent when she eventually retires, which could be as soon as the 2028 election assuming she runs again next year.

Fourth, Weiner can begin to prepare a congressional campaign now but then decide to run only if Pelosi does not. In California, if an incumbent does not officially file for re-election, the candidate filing period is extended for five additional business days. Therefore, Weiner would have an opportunity to file even if the Congresswoman decides to retire right before the candidate filing period expires.

While a Weiner congressional candidacy would make interesting political news copy, he is likely merely testing the waters for a future run. There is a good chance the final decision as to whether he runs would occur at the candidate filing deadline.

In 2026, California candidates must fulfill filing requirements by March 6 for the June 2 jungle primary, or March 13 should the incumbent not seek re-election.

A Serious Pelosi Challenge?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025

House

Saikat Chakrabarti

Saikat Chakrabarti, a Democratic challenger to Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), released an internal poll that he says positions him to end her congressional career. Pelosi, who was elected to the House in 1987 after being the California Democratic Party chair, began her tenure after winning a special election victory in ’87 that would eventually lead to eight years directing the US House.

Chakrabarti quarterbacked Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s shocking upset 2018 Democratic primary victory over veteran New York Rep. Joe Crowley and now believes he can engineer a similar result for himself against a Democratic Party icon.

A Chakrabarti campaign poll from Beacon Research (Sept. 12-20; 600 likely California June jungle primary voters; text and live interview) finds Rep. Pelosi leading Chakrabarti 47-34 percent. After the respondents are read push questions featuring the 85-year-old incumbent’s age and whether or not a new generation of Democratic leadership should come to power, the ballot test then flips to 44-36 percent in Chakrabarti’s favor.

Though the poll could arguably be within the realm of accuracy at this early date, the results should not be taken particularly seriously. Most importantly, we are not looking at a Democratic primary battle on June 2. Instead, California uses the top-two jungle primary system that places all candidates on the same ballot irrespective of political party affiliation. The top two finishers in what is ostensibly a qualifying election then advance into the general election regardless of the percentages attained on the initial vote.

Thus, to think Rep. Pelosi would not advance into the general election under this system is absurd considering her consecutive 20 congressional election win streak from her San Francisco-anchored CD.

The general election will yield an entirely different campaign because the turnout will be much larger in the November election, which benefits the former Speaker. Thus, it will not be enough for Chakrabarti to outpace Pelosi in the lower turnout June election because both contenders would advance into the general no matter what their attained percentages.

It is already becoming clear, however, that we will see a number of intra-party challenges to aging Democratic incumbents around the country from younger candidates. Several, such as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH; 78 years old), and Reps. Danny Davis (D-IL; 84), and Jan Schakowsky (D-IL; 81), have already announced their retirements in the face of potential challengers who said they would use the “new generation of leadership” theme.

Others looking at serious challenges and facing the same theme are Reps. John Larson (D-CT; 77) and David Scott (D-GA; 80). Other Democratic members who are 75 years old or older and are seeking re-election may have nomination challengers, but the opposition at this point does not look particularly strong. This list includes two past leadership members, Reps. Steny Hoyer, (D-MD; 86) and Jim Clyburn, (D-SC; 85), along with Reps. Maxine Waters (D-CA; 87) and Frederica Wilson (D-FL; 82).

While Rep. Pelosi has filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission, she has yet to formally announce her re-election candidacy. It is presumed, however, that she will seek a 21st term.

The California Congresswoman’s 11th District, fully contained on the San Francisco peninsula, is one of the most Democratic seats in the country. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the CA-11 partisan lean is 86.6D – 11.6R. In California, only two districts are more Democratic, and only by a point or two. The pair are the Oakland seat of freshman Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) along with two-term Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove’s (D) Los Angeles domain.

Should voters approve the proposed California redistricting map in the Nov. 4 special election, the three strongest Democratic districts will remain virtually intact. This means that Pelosi’s general election opponent will almost assuredly be a Democrat, and very likely Chakrabarti.

Assuming the former Speaker runs for re-election, the chances of Chakrabarti or any other Democrat dethroning her are minimal at best. Therefore, though an early poll such as his Beacon Research study may suggest a modicum of weakness for the long-time House member, the final vote will again return her for yet another term.