By Jim Ellis — Thursday, January 22, 2026
Senate
Michele Tafoya
Last week, Democrats successfully recruited former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola into the Alaska Senate race, and this week the Republicans convinced their top Minnesota candidate prospect to enter the 2026 open campaign.
Former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya, who came to prominence from her years as part of the NFL Sunday Night Football telecasting team, this week formally declared for the Republican US Senate nomination and currently faces no major competition in the GOP primary.
In the general election, Tafoya will likely face either Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan or Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).
The Democratic nomination battle will be interesting. Typically, Minnesota candidates in both parties don’t force a primary if they fail to receive the party endorsement at the state delegate convention. It is probable in this campaign, however, that the losing convention candidate will force a primary election to be decided on August 11th.
Considering the current state of the Minnesota Democratic Farm Labor Party, the most liberal candidate would likely earn the delegate vote. If so, Lt. Gov. Flanagan should be favored. Rep. Craig, risking her congressional seat to run for the Senate, probably won’t end her quest because of a partisan convention delegate vote. With her strong fundraising and campaign ability, Rep. Craig could be considered the favorite to win the primary election even without the official party blessing.
Democrats have enjoyed a strong run in Minnesota over at least the past couple decades and certainly so since 2006, the last election year when a Republican, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, won a major statewide race. Despite the Democrat’s long string of statewide victories, their more recent average win percentage isn’t particularly high. Therefore, the act of fielding a potentially strong candidate like Tafoya suggests that the Republicans scoring an upset victory is within the realm of possibility.
Since the 2018 election, inclusive, Democrats have won every major statewide race, but their aggregate vote percentage average is only 53.5, low for a party that has not lost a major statewide campaign in what will be 20 years at the next election.
One could also argue that the recent average is artificially high because of Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D). Of the eight studied races, she won two and her average vote total is 58.2 percent against weak Republican competition. If she is removed from the calculation, the average Democratic win percentage in their most recent six victories is only 51.7.
Unfortunately for the Republicans, the highest GOP total in those same statewide elections is President Trump’s 46.7 percent total in 2024. Even when including Trump’s high number, the Republican aggregate average during the studied period is only 42.7 percent.
While the political situation is hot in Minneapolis right now when considering the ICE controversy and the public assistance fraud scandal, Republican strategists will still need to properly position Tafoya in order to positively drive home the policy differences between her and the eventual Democratic nominee. Because she is a prominent candidate, it is likely the Tafoya campaign will be adequately funded to properly deliver her message.
While the ICE tensions may well die down before the Nov. 3 election, the Tafoya campaign will work to keep the fraud scandal alive and pin the blame upon the Democrats. This task will be easier if Lt. Gov. Flanagan becomes the party nominee because, as a state official, she can be held at least partially responsible for the government’s poor oversight.
While Tafoya will be a credible Republican voice in the November contest, she still must be rated as a decided underdog at least until her campaign begins to significantly move polling numbers as the general election unfolds.