Tag Archives: Harry Reid

Another Tough Nevada Senate Race

Sen. John Ensign

Sen. John Ensign (R-NV), embattled because of a sex scandal involving the wife of a former staff member, admits he faces a “very, very difficult re-election,” but the two-term incumbent says he’s in the race to stay. Meanwhile, fellow Republican Dean Heller, the 2nd district congressman whose district touches all of Nevada’s 17 counties, confirms he is considering challenging Ensign in next year’s GOP primary. As you will remember, the 2010 Nevada Senate race was one of the most contentious in the country as Majority Leader Harry Reid eventually defeated Tea Party-backed Sharron Angle by five points, but the race lasted virtually two years.

Democrats are clearly in a position to take advantage of the Republicans’ problems and will field a strong candidate; 1st District Rep. Shelley Berkley says she will announce whether or not she will launch a Senate bid in mid-February. Other possibilities are Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and Secretary of State Ross Miller.

For his part, Ensign says he’s “not worried” about a possible Heller challenge but a new poll released this week suggests he should. Public Policy Polling surveyed 400 Nevada Republican primary voters over the Jan. 3-5 period and found that Heller would defeat Ensign 52-34%. While Nevada Republicans by and large still think Ensign is doing a good job in Washington (53:30% favorability score), the number saying he should run for re-election is only 42%, with 41% saying he should not. Heller has high name ID and positives, 63:12%, meaning 3/4 of the GOP electorate already know him. We will be hearing much more from this state in the coming two years, just as we have for the past two.
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Rory for Congress?

The official 2010 apportionment is only two weeks old and, in at least one state, jockeying for position to win a new district already is beginning. This, despite the fact that the new seat’s boundaries won’t be determined for months. Defeated gubernatorial candidate Rory Reid, a Clark County commissioner and son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, says he’s interested in running for Nevada’s new 4th congressional district, even though he doesn’t know where it will be.

Since their fastest-in-the-nation 35.1% population growth rate earned the Silver State another seat, legislators are now tasked with drawing a new four-district map. Both state legislative chambers are in Democratic control (although their state Senate margin is just one vote, 11-10), but the new governor, Brian Sandoval, who stomped Reid 53-42% back in November, also must approve the new map. A stalemate would force the process to court for final resolution.

The Nevada redistricting fight is interesting. Right now, both Democrats and Republicans each have one safe seat, while the marginal 3rd district currently rests in GOP Rep-elect Joe Heck’s hands after he defeated one-term incumbent Dina Titus (D) by 1,748 votes last November.

Republicans clearly will want to secure the 3rd district and make the new 4th marginal. The Democrats might settle for each party taking two safe seats. A three-judge panel may have different thoughts altogether, so expect the political fireworks to soon be as illuminating as those commonly seen on the Las Vegas strip.
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For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com.