Tag Archives: Gov. Mikie Sherrill

Malinowski Concedes in NJ-11;
Murkowski Says No in Alaska

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, February 11, 2026

NJ-11

Democratic Socialist Analila Mejia / NJPBS

With former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) conceding defeat in the close NJ-11 special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) in Congress, Democratic Socialist Analila Mejia, a former staff member to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), has won the party primary and will advance into the special general election on April 16.

Turnout for the special was low, with 63,804 Democrats participating as we analyze near-final unofficial tabulations. Mejia defeated Malinowski, 29.1 – 27.7 percent, a margin of 889 votes (18,584 to 17,695).

Mejia will also file for the full term before March 23, and it remains to be seen how many of the 12 defeated special election Democrats will decide to challenge her in that race for the regular term.

In the special general, Mejia will face Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway, who was unopposed in the special Republican primary. Because Mejia is to the left of the district’s historical voting pattern, the Republican leadership will now make the calculated decision about whether to run a significant campaign in an attempt to score an upset victory.

Chances are that Mejia will likely win the general against a minimal effort, since Republicans have been performing poorly in special elections around the country since the 2024 election and will likely choose to save the money to use in other regular election contests.

The next special election will occur in Georgia on March 10 in the Peach State’s vacant 14th District (Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resignation). There, 16 members of the GOP, three Democrats, a Libertarian, and an Independent will compete in a jungle primary for Georgia’s strongest Republican seat.

Should no one receive majority support, almost a certainty from such a crowded field, the top two finishers will advance to an April 7 special general election.

The final special election will occur in California’s 1st District on June 2. State Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) is favored to win the seat outright in the first election. Should others join the candidate field and force a runoff, the secondary election will be held on Aug. 4.

The CD-1 position is vacant due to the death of the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville).

Alaska

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who had not ruled out entering her state’s open Governor’s race, said to reporters earlier in the week that she will not run later this year, and restated her commitment to serve Alaska in the US Senate.

It is likely that Sen. Murkowski would have been favored to win the Governor’s position, as her father did in 2002. Gov. Frank Murkowski was then defeated in the 2006 Republican primary, losing to future Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin and even dropping to a third-place finish.

In 2026, it is probable that Lisa Murkowski would have advanced into the general election via the top four jungle primary system that Alaska employs. Ten Republicans have announced for the position, but the crowded field would have helped her since the conservative vote would have been split among so many candidates.

Without former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) in the race – she chose instead to run for the US Senate – the Republicans will again be favored to win the general election.

The Senator’s decision looks to lay the groundwork for an interesting 2028 campaign, however. Term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) has already said he plans to challenge Sen. Murkowski in the next election.

NJ-11: Special Primary Today

CD-11, Northern New Jersey / Dave’s Redistricting App

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, February 5, 2026

House

Voters in northern New Jersey go to the polls today to choose party nominees for the purpose of replacing Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D), who vacated this congressional district after winning her statewide election in November.

The real battle today is in the Democratic primary as 11 candidates are vying for the party nomination. The primary victor tonight will then likely claim the April 16 special general election.

Former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski is viewed as at least a slight favorite to win tonight’s Democratic election, though he has been under attack from his opponents particularly for his stock market success while a member of Congress.

Malinowski was elected to the House in 2018 and won a close re-election over the district’s current Congressman, Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), in 2020. After redistricting, which made the 7th District a touch more Republican, Kean was able to unseat the two-term incumbent in 2022. Rep. Kean was then re-elected in 2024 and will face a tough fight again later this year.

In today’s 11th District special election, Malinowski’s chief opponents are Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, venture capitalist Zach Beecher, Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett, and former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way.

Malinowski is the top fundraiser within the group, bringing in just over $1.1 million according to the Federal Election Commission pre-primary filing covering the period through January 16th. Gill, however, is not far behind with over $800,000 raised. The remaining group has all attracted between $400-$500,000. Since little difference in ideology exists among the candidates, the Democratic primary will likely be an Election Day turnout battle because early voting has not previously been a major factor in New Jersey voting.

For the Republicans, Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway is unopposed for the party nomination and will automatically advance into the mid-April special general election. For his part, Randolph has raised over $260,000, with just over $160,000 in his campaign treasury.

Depending upon tonight’s Democratic result, we will soon see whether the national Republican apparatus will spend significant money to boost Hathaway’s chances in the special general.

The 11th District lies in northern New Jersey and contains parts of Essex, Morris, and Passaic counties. The major population centers are the cities of Morristown, Broomfield, and Montclair.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean favors the Democrats by a 55.6D – 42.5R count. Kamala Harris carried the district with a 53.3 – 44.6 percent margin over President Trump. Of New Jersey’s nine Democratic congressional districts, the 11th ranked as Harris’ sixth-best performance against Trump. Statewide, her victory margin was 52.0 – 46.1 percent, so the 11th District exceeded her statewide showing by 1.3 percentage points.

The NJ-11 special will be the seventh such contest in House races since the current Congress began. Each party has held the seats it was risking, and the NJ-11 contest in April will very likely follow suit.

The next special election will occur in Georgia where the fight will be on the Republican side. The state’s 14th District, from which former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) resigned in early January, is the Republican’s safest Peach State CD. This election will occur on March 10.

Under Georgia election law, all candidates are placed on a jungle primary ballot. If a candidate scores majority support, the individual is elected outright. If no one reaches that threshold, the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation will advance to an April 7 runoff election.

The 14th District’s partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App: 69.2R – 28.9D) is overwhelmingly Republican, so the GOP will hold the seat. With 21 filed candidates, however, going to a runoff election is a virtual certainty.

The contest to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) will be held June 2 under an identical format to the Georgia structure. If a runoff election is necessary in that race, such is scheduled for Aug. 4.