By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025
VA-11
Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D)
Upon being sworn into the House, the partisan division will move to 219R-213D, with three vacancies. The next special election will be held on Sept. 23 in Arizona’s 7th CD where former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) is favored to win the seat of her late father, Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson), who passed away in March.
Redistricting
It is getting to the point of not being able to keep track of the various congressional redistricting efforts ‘without a scorecard.’ Below, are the latest developments in states where redistricting is actively occurring or being discussed:
• Alabama: It is possible that the Alabama map could be redrawn depending upon the US Supreme Court’s ruling on the Louisiana case, since the two states have virtually identical pending litigation. If the high court upholds the lower court ruling for Louisiana, then it is possible Alabama could follow suit and redraw its map. A second Louisiana round of oral arguments is scheduled for Oct. 15. A redraw would likely add one seat to the Republican column.
• California: A referendum to replace the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map is on the statewide special election ballot for Nov. 4. If voters approve, a new congressional map will be in place for the 2026 election that is projected to give Democrats five more seats and take the state’s partisan division to 48D-4R.
• Colorado: An activist group will attempt to file a constitutional amendment initiative for the 2026 ballot to redraw Colorado’s congressional map. Under the state’s election laws, constitutional amendments must pass with a minimum 55 percent voter approval. The amendment would give the political leaders the power to replace the Colorado Independent Congressional Redistricting Commission map.
The proposed plan projects to a two seat gain for Democrats. If the activists are successful with the ballot approach, the earliest election a new map could take effect would be 2028.
Florida: It appears likely that the Florida legislature will consider a new congressional map when the new session begins in January. An interim legislative committee was constructed to draw the plan. Projections suggest Republicans would gain two seats in the delegation if a new map is enacted. Doing so would push the partisan division to 22R-6D.
Illinois: While Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) was talking about a redraw of the Illinois map, doing so would not be practical. The Illinois map is already the most gerrymandered in the country with a partisan division of 14D-3R, and it is likely not conceivable for Democrats to do better. Chances are good that a redraw will not happen, especially with a fast approaching 2026 candidate filing deadline of Nov. 3.
Indiana: The White House continues to push for a Hoosier State redraw, but it is unclear whether the legislature will address the issue in their new session. The most extreme map would eliminate the state’s two Democratic seats and result in a 9R-0D plan. This situation has not yet solidified.
Kansas: Redistricting discussions are underway in Kansas, and there is talk that the legislature could move toward a special session. Since it is clear that Gov. Laura Kelly (D) will not call the legislature back, two-thirds of members from both houses must support the move for a special session.
Should a session be called and a 4R-0D map introduced, Republicans would realistically need two-thirds support for the legislation in both houses because Gov. Kelly is sure to veto what the legislature produces. Seeing a new Kansas plan being enacted is a long shot.
Louisiana: As discussed in the Alabama section above, the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case currently before the US Supreme Court has the potential of being a landmark case. We won’t see a ruling until later in the year, but this case could set the tone for the entire mid-decade redistricting cycle. In addition to Alabama, the decision could affect the new Texas map.
Maryland: Democratic legislators have introduced a bill that would allow the legislature to address changing their congressional map if other states successfully alter their boundaries. Any new map would target the state’s lone Republican House member, Rep. Andy Harris (R-Cambridge) and result in an 8D-0R delegation.
Missouri: The state House of Representatives just passed a map that changes Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D) Kansas City-anchored 5th District into a Republican seat by stretching it into the rural areas. The state Senate is expected to follow suit, and Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) will reportedly sign the new map into law. Therefore, chances of Republicans gaining one seat in Missouri are high.
Ohio: Legislators are soon going to draw a new congressional map and must do so under state law. Because the 2021 congressional plan did not receive three-fifths vote in each legislative house, the map could only stand for two elections, those in 2022 and 2024. Therefore, the legislators must draw a new plan for 2026 and beyond.
Republicans hope to gain two seats in the re-map, those of Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Emilia Sykes (D-Akron). It remains to be seen exactly how the map will be configured, but creating a new congressional plan is a certainty.
Texas: The new Texas plan has been enacted, and the expected voting rights legal challenge has been filed in an El Paso federal court. Assuming the map stands, Republicans could gain as many as five seats but only if the Trump numbers among South Texas Hispanics translate to a Republican congressional candidate. Obviously, Texas will become one of the key states that determines the next US House majority.
Utah: A Utah court has struck down the current congressional map, saying the legislature did not have the authority to bypass voter approved redistricting guidelines. Therefore, the legislature is moving forward to draw a new plan. The decision could lead to a new Democratic urban seat in Salt Lake City. Thus, the current 4R-0D delegation could allow Democrats to gain one seat.
Wisconsin: Earlier in the year, the state Supreme Court rebuffed a move to redraw the congressional map. Activists have re-started the legal process, but reaching the state Supreme Court for reconsideration will be a lengthy process and likely won’t happen to affect the 2026 election.