California Congressional redistricting map. Click on image or here to see interactive version: Dave’s Redistricing App.
By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 17, 2025
Redistricting
The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) statistical organization released their data figures for the new 52 California redistricted congressional districts, and their non-partisan analysis may not be quite as rosy for the Democrats as Gov. Gavin Newsom and the party leaders have boasted. The DRA is the only data organization that has already calculated a clear partisan division for all of the new Golden State districts.
Several Democratic incumbents, and surprisingly the two considered most vulnerable heading into the 2026 election, actually fare worse when compared to the previous draw. Several Republican districts have no doubt been destroyed, but the situation may not be as dire for the GOP as Gov. Newsom’s media spin leads one to believe.
Starting in Northern California, Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s (R-Oroville) 1st District has been transformed into a Democratic district. According to the DRA partisan lean calculations, the 1st moves from 60.2R – 37.7D to 55.2D – 44.1R. With state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) positioning himself to challenge Rep. LaMalfa, the Republican Congressman will have a very difficult time winning an eighth term.
Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) is leaving his Sacramento County 6th District to run in District 3, which is now a point more Democratic than his home district. There, he will ostensibly challenge two-term Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento). The move puts Rep. Kiley in a bad position since his 3rd CD has flipped from holding a partisan lean of 52.5R – 45.6D to one having a 53.4D – 45.7R split, a net swing of just under 15 percentage points toward the Democratic segment.
There is some speculation that Rep. Kiley will vacate District 3 and attempt to unseat fellow Republican Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) in District 5, one of just four safe Republican seats in the state. The new CA-5 partisan lean: 60.7R – 38.7D.
Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) was the closest winner of all 435 districts in the 2024 election, a 187-vote win over then-Rep. John Duarte (R). Surprisingly, the new map makes the latest version of CA-13 slightly less Democratic. The previous partisan lean was 54.0D – 44.2R, yet Duarte won the seat in 2022 and barely lost in 2024. The new partisan lean is a net 4.6 percentage points more Republican (52.4D – 46.9R).
Though the new 13th District remains more Democratic, the congressional voting history shows weakness in the Dem fortress. A strong candidate such as former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R), who has already announced that he will run, projects another difficult race for Gray.
Fresno Rep. Jim Costa (D) has averaged only 53.4 percent of the vote in his two elections but his district, just like Rep. Gray’s, actually moves more Republican according to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations. Instead of seeing a 58.5D – 39.9R partisan lean, the new district records a 54.4D – 45.0R swing, a net gain of 9.2 percentage points in the Republicans’ favor. Though Rep. Costa will still be favored to carry the new 21st CD, seeing a potential Republican upset develop here is not outside the realm of possibility.
Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) has always been a major national Democratic target since he represents one of the most Democratic districts to send a Republican to the US House. Despite facing an adverse partisan lean in the previous District 22 version of 55.5D – 42.6R, Rep. Valadao secured two consecutive victories. This is another Central Valley district where the non-partisan calculations find the Republican factor getting better on this new map.
Moving forward, the DRA partisan lean for CD-22 is 52.1D – 47.3R, representing a net Republican gain of 8.1 percentage points. Therefore, with Rep. Valadao securing a 53-47 percent victory under the previous partisan lean, his chances should improve under this new 2026 map.
Seven-term Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio) also sees his sprawling desert district become a bit more Republican. According to the past and present DRA partisan lean calculations, Rep. Ruiz’s 25th District is 5.5 percentage points more Republican. The new partisan lean is 54.2D – 45.3R, which clearly still favors Democrats, but the new draw makes the seat potentially more competitive.
The new 40th District is the final domain conceded to the Republicans. At this point, it appears both Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra) may be fighting each other to capture this seat. Rep. Calvert has already declared he will run here as his 41st District was transferred to Los Angeles County from Riverside County, and Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) has declared her intent to run in that district.
Neither Reps. Calvert nor Kim represent a great deal of the new 40th, so we will see how this paired contest eventually unfolds. It is possible that both could advance to the general election under the state’s jungle primary format so we might see a year-long campaign between the two Republicans.
Another surprising aspect on this new map is the draw for freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) in the new 45th District. In 2024, Tran unseated two-term GOP Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by 653 votes, which made it the second-closest congressional race in California and the nation. Yet, under the new map, the partisan lean actually moves slightly more toward the Republicans. When Rep. Tran won, the DRA partisan lean was 52.2D – 45.9R. The new ratio is 51.7D – 47.5R, a net swing of 2.1 percentage points toward the GOP.
While Rep. Tran will still see more Democratic voters in his district than Republican, we can count on the GOP making a major effort here. Under the new draw, this seat could be another option for Rep. Kim.
The final district that was greatly changed is Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R-San Diego) 48th District. The seat flips from having a partisan lean of 58.3R – 39.8D to a new district, largely because of including most of the city of Encinitas, that yields a 50.6D – 48.7R partisan split. Obviously, the district is somewhat more Democratic, but the numbers are close enough that Rep. Issa will have a fighting chance to win again.
While Democrats will very likely gain seats under this new draw and reduce California’s Republican contingent to fewer than the nine seats they currently control, stretching to a Democratic gain of five might not be achieved.