Trending Toward
A Brokered Convention

By Jim Ellis

March 7, 2016 — Republicans voted in five states over the weekend, and all four remaining GOP presidential candidates gained delegate votes. Both Sen. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump placed first twice, while Sen. Marco Rubio scored a backdoor Winner-Take-All victory in Puerto Rico.

The Delegate Count:

REPUBLICANS

Louisiana Primary 46 Delegates
Donald Trump – 41.4% 18 Delegates
Ted Cruz – 37.8% 18
Marco Rubio – 11.2% 5
Uncommitted 5
Kansas Caucus 40 Delegates
Ted Cruz – 48.1% 24 Delegates
Donald Trump – 23.3% 9
Marco Rubio – 16.7% 6
John Kasich – 10.7% 1
Maine Caucus 23 Delegates
Ted Cruz – 45.9% 12 Delegates
Donald Trump – 32.6% 9
John Kasich – 12.2% 7
Marco Rubio – 8.0%
Puerto Rico Primary 23 Delegates
Marco Rubio – 71.0% 23 Delegates
Donald Trump – 13.0% 9
Ted Cruz – 8.6% 7
John Kasich – 1.3%

UPDATED GOP NATIONAL DELEGATE COUNT

Candidate Delegates Percentage
Donald Trump 391 43.1
Ted Cruz 304 33.5
Marco Rubio 154 17.0
John Kasich 37 4.0
Ben Carson 8
Others 7
Uncomitted 5

In order for Donald Trump to win the Republican nomination on the first ballot, he will have to commit 54 percent of the remaining delegates, or 25 percent better than his performance to date. For Sen. Cruz to win on the first ballot, he must obtain 59.6 percent of the remaining delegate pool, or an improvement of 78 percent over his current rate of delegate acquisition.

The March 15 primaries that feature the Winner-Take-All states of Florida (99 delegates) and Ohio (66 delegates) will be critical in determining if the Republicans can nominate a candidate on the first ballot.

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