By Jim Ellis
Aug. 27, 2020 — The Republican National Convention coverage featured several mentions of swing state polling getting closer between the two presidential candidates, and recent moves from both sides would seem to suggest that internal survey numbers also reflect such a trend.
Below, we compare the 10 most recent polls with the 10 prior surveys in each of the key states to better illustrate the campaign’s movement:
ARIZONA
Last 10 Public Polls: July 17 – August 23
• Biden Aggregate Average Lead: 3.2%
Previous 10 Public Polls: June 26 – July 24
• Biden Aggregate Average Lead: 4.4%
Swing: Trump +1.2%
FLORIDA
Last 10 Public Polls: July 17 – August 22
• Biden Aggregate Average Lead: 3.2%
Previous 10 Public Polls: June 8 – July 21
• Biden Aggregate Average Lead: 6.9%
Swing: Trump +3.7%
GEORGIA
Last 10 Public Polls: July 9 – August 15
• Trump Aggregate Average Lead: 0.4%
Previous 10 Public Polls: May 4 – July 2
• Trump Aggregate Average Lead: 0.1%
Swing: Trump +0.3%
MICHIGAN
Last 10 Public Polls: July 24 – August 23
• Biden Aggregate Average Lead: 7.0%
Previous 10 Public Polls: July 9 – July 26
• Biden Aggregate Average Lead: 7.4%
Swing: Trump +0.4%
MINNESOTA
9 Total Public Polls: May 18 – August 18
• Biden Aggregate Average Lead: 6.8%
Last 5 Public Polls: July 17 – August 18
• Biden Aggregate Average Lead: 4.0%
Swing: Trump +2.8%
NORTH CAROLINA
Last 10 Public Polls: July 24 – August 23
• Biden Aggregate Average Lead: 0.8%
Previous 10 Public Polls: July 9 – July 26
• Biden Aggregate Average Lead: 2.8%
Swing: Trump +2.0%
PENNSYLVANIA
Last 10 Public Polls: July 24 – August 23
• Biden Aggregate Average Lead: 5.5%
Previous 10 Public Polls: July 9 – July 26
• Biden Aggregate Average Lead: 5.8%
Swing: Trump +0.3%
TEXAS
Last 10 Public Polls: July 7 – August 22
• Trump Aggregate Average Lead: 1.1%
Previous 10 Public Polls: April 27 – July 7
• Trump Aggregate Average Lead: 0.9%
Swing: Trump +0.2%
WISCONSIN
Last 10 Public Polls: July 27 – August 23
• Biden Aggregate Average Lead: 5.8%
Previous 10 Public Polls: July 9 – July 26
• Biden Aggregate Average Lead: 7.1%
Swing: Trump +1.3%
Though Biden has the polling lead in all of these determinative states with the exception of Georgia and Texas, President Trump has seen each place begin to swing, by at least a small degree, in his direction.
To win, President Trump must keep Texas and Georgia in his column, and have Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina all come his way. He would then need to win any one of the four Great Lakes states to reach or exceed the minimum 270 electoral vote threshold.
