By Jim Ellis
Jan. 25, 2019 — A new Public Policy Polling company national survey (Jan. 19-21; 750 US registered voters) finds President Trump, who is likely at his lowest ebb in popularity during his two-year stewardship in office, trailing seven prospective Democratic opponents, but the study appears to be nothing short of a push poll.
Initially, the survey sample finds President Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by a net four points more than the actual 2016 national campaign result when the respondents are queried about who they supported in the last presidential election. This alone points to at least a slight sample skew.
The historical presidential vote tabulation is followed by a series of questions, all designed to place President Trump in a negative light.
Verbatim from the PPP study, the questions are:
- Do you think that Donald Trump is honest, or not? Yes 35%; No 58%
- Do you think that Donald Trump is a liar, or not? Yes 48%; No 44%
- Do you think that Donald Trump has made America Great Again, or not? Yes 38%; No 55%
- Do you think Donald Trump should release his tax returns, or not? Yes 55%; No 38%
- Do you think that members of Donald Trump’s campaign team worked in association with Russia to help Trump win the election for President, or not? Yes 45%; No 43%
- If evidence comes out that proves conclusively that members of Donald Trump’s campaign team worked in association with Russia to help Trump win the election for President, do you think Trump should continue to serve as President, or do you think he should resign? Continue 37%; Resign 56%
- Do you think that Donald Trump has committed any crimes since he began running for President, or not? Yes 45%; No 41%
- If the Mueller investigation results in evidence that President Trump committed a crime, do you think he should be indicted and prosecuted in the courts, or not? Yes 61%; No 30%
- Who do you trust more: CNN News or Donald Trump? CNN 49%; Trump 39%
- Who do you trust more: Fox News or Donald Trump? Fox 34%; Trump 30%
- Who do you trust more: NBC News or Donald Trump? NBC 51%; Trump 38%
- Who do you trust more: ABC News or Donald Trump? ABC 51%; Trump 39%
- Who do you trust more: CBS News or Donald Trump? CBS 52%; Trump 38%
- Who do you trust more: the New York Times or Donald Trump? NY Times 51%; Trump 39%
- Who do you trust more: the Washington Post or Donald Trump? Post 51%; Trump 38%
- Who would you rather was President: Barack Obama or Donald Trump? Obama 53%; Trump 43%
- Who would you rather was President: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? Clinton 49%; Trump 43%
- Do you support or oppose building a wall with Mexico if American taxpayers have to pay for the wall? Support 40%; Oppose 54%
- As you may know, the federal government is currently in a shutdown. Who do you blame the most for the government shutdown: Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress or Democrats in Congress? Trump and R’s 55%; D’s 43%
- Would you support or oppose Congress voting today to re-open the government without funding the border wall? Support 57%; Oppose 38%
- Do you agree or disagree with President Trump that the government should be kept closed until he gets funding for the wall? Agree 35%; Disagree 60%
- Do you think your personal economic situation is better, worse, or about the same as it was two years ago? Better 38; Worse 28%; About the same 32%
- Would you support or oppose impeaching Donald Trump? Support 46%; Oppose 44%
A further indication that the sample skews heavily to the left is the trust answers surrounding the national media. Poll after poll finds Republicans and Democrats highly polarized in their view of the media, with the former professing little trust in the reporting they see and read. Therefore, the sample demonstrably favoring the media suggests that the universe’s Independent segment skews decidedly left.
An additional clue is the low ratings for Fox News in comparison to the more liberal networks.
This type of questionnaire is clearly designed to put President Trump in as poor a light as possible, hence the ballot test results – asked after all of the aforementioned questions were posed to the respondents – must be discounted to a large degree.
Below are the ballot test results:
- Ex-Vice President Joe Biden – 53%
- President Trump – 41%
- Sen. Cory Booker – 47%
- President Trump – 42%
- Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand – 47%
- President Trump 42%
- Sen. Kamala Harris – 48%
- President Trump – 41%
- Ex-Rep Beto O’Rourke – 47%
- President Trump – 41%
- Sen. Bernie Sanders – 51%
- President Trump – 41%
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren – 48%
- President Trump – 42%
Though the president trails in all scenarios from a slanted sample is no surprise. The fact that he is as close to his potential opponents after the respondents heard negative scenario after negative scenario suggests that Trump is in better position opposite the eventual Democratic nominee than this particular poll portends, and that his own political base remains solid.
