Real Clear Politics 2024 Electoral College projection | FiveThirtyEight 2024 Electoral College projection
By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 21, 2024
President
FiveThirtyEight & Real Clear Politics: Dueling Maps — Two data organizations released national maps based upon their polling averages, and both presidential candidates would clinch the election depending upon which map’s data was considered. The FiveThirtyEight data would give Vice President Kamala Harris a 276-262 win. The Real Clear map gives former President Donald Trump a more substantial victory at 312-226.
The differences: FiveThirtyEight gives Harris victories in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but the victory margin is less than one percentage point in each place. Real Clear places each of the aforementioned states with Trump. Perhaps the most interesting commonality between the two maps is that both Real Clear and FiveThirtyEight see Trump winning Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Senate
Nebraska: Name Confusion — The most surprising Senate race is the Nebraska campaign between Sen. Deb Fischer (R) and Independent Dan Osborn. Two new developments have occurred. First, retired University of Nebraska championship head football coach and former Congressman Tom Osborne cut a new ad for Sen. Fischer in which he explains that confusion exists because he and the Senate candidate share the same surname. He goes onto explain that he has never met Dan Osborn but does know Sen. Fischer. Coach Osborne, who is a revered legend in the state, then reiterates how important it is to re-elect Sen. Fischer.
We have also seen conflicting polls within the last week with both candidates releasing internal surveys placing them six points ahead. Late last week, Sen. Fischer’s campaign published another new poll to counter Osborn’s last release. The data is again from her campaign pollster, Torchlight Strategies (Oct. 12-15; 625 likely Nebraska voters), and this time places Sen. Fischer seven points ahead at 51-44 percent.
House
AZ-2: Rep. Crane (R) in Shocking Tied Poll — Arizona pollster Noble Predictive Insights released a new survey that surprisingly depicts freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) as locked into a dead heat polling result with former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AZ-2 as R+15. Rep. Crane, even as a freshman, was one of the House leaders to oust then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R), thus becoming labeled as one of the Freedom Caucus activists.
This is a race that had not been on anybody’s board but could quickly become a campaign of note. According to the new Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure report for the period ending Sept. 30, both Crane and Nez have over $1 million cash-on-hand with the incumbent having about $400,000 more than the challenger. Assuming this poll is accurate, Rep. Crane will have to increase his turnout operation in order to stave off this upset attempt.
WI-3: Rep. Van Orden (R) in Dead Heat — In a race that has been teetering ever since the August primary, a new Normington Petts survey for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (Oct. 3-7; 400 likely WI-3 voters; live interview & text) projects Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke to be taking a one point lead over freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien), 49-48 percent, and she leads 51-43 percent within the all-important Independent voter segment.
Rep. Van Orden defeated then-state Sen. Brad Pfaff (D) in the last election, but with a slightly disappointing 52-48 percent margin since the national Democratic establishment didn’t target the race and then-President Trump carried the seat in both 2016 and 2020. Prior to Van Orden winning the seat, former Rep. Ron Kind held the seat in the Democratic column for the previous 26 years. This is now becoming a significant district to watch on election night.