Daily Archives: January 13, 2026

California Rep. Julia Brownley
Will Not Seek Re-Election

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, January 13, 2026

House

Seven-term California Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/ Ventura County)

As the new year begins, congressional retirement announcements are increasing. Late last week, seven-term California Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/ Ventura County) announced that she will not seek re-election this year.

Immediately after the Congresswoman made her political intentions public, state Assemblywoman Jacqui Irwin (D-Thousand Oaks) declared her congressional candidacy with Rep. Brownley’s endorsement.

Brownley served three terms in the California Assembly prior to winning her first election to the Ventura County-anchored 26th Congressional District in 2012. In her seven congressional races, the Representative averaged 56.8 precent of the general election vote, which is the District 26 projected Democratic partisan lean number.

The new 26th saw only minor changes in the 2025 redistricting map. Prior to voters adopting the new plan, the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculated a 56.8D – 41.2R partisan lean. The new 26th, which stretches a bit further east into Los Angeles County largely for the purpose of making freshman Rep. George Whitesides (D-Agua Dulce/Santa Clarita) 27th District slightly more Democratic, has a partisan lean of 56.7D – 42.5R.

The new 26th is moving closer to the competitive realm, but it is still wholly within the universe of distinctly Democratic California congressional districts. Under the 2022 redistricting map, Rep. David Valadao (D-Hanford/Fresno) represents the most Democratic California district to elect a Republican. Under that plan, the CA-22 partisan lean was 55.5D – 42.6R.

Jacqui Irwin was first elected to the state Assembly in 2014. Under the California term limit law that allows members to serve up to 12 years in one chamber, Irwin is ineligible to seek re-election. Prior to winning her seat in the legislature, Assemblywoman Irwin served two terms as Mayor of Thousand Oaks and three on the Thousand Oaks City Council. She begins her 2026 congressional campaign as the favorite to win the seat.

The 26th District covers about 80 precent of Ventura County, sharing with District 24 (Rep. Salud Carbajal-D) and veteran Democrat Brad Sherman’s CD-32. The CD-26 remaining constituency resides in Los Angeles County. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried the district over President Trump 56-41 precent, which is consistent with the regional partisan lean.

Rep. Brownley’s retirement announcement brings the total open seat count for the next election to 52. She is the 20th Democrat to leave the House.

A total of 18 members from both parties are retiring from elective politics (17) or have resigned from the House (1). Thirteen departing Representatives are running for the Senate and another 13 are seeking the Governorship of their respective state. One member, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), is running for Texas Attorney General. Two seats are vacant due to the incumbent’s death.

Though articles have been written about the Republican exodus from the House, in actuality, more Democrats (11) are retiring from elective politics than Republicans (7). Obviously, a greater number of Republicans are seeking a different office.

Five new seats were created through 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas. The latter state has three new vacant seats, while two California Democratic members are leaving their current congressional districts to run in another CD under the new map’s boundaries.

Sacramento area Rep. Ami Bera is leaving District 6 to run for election in CD-3, while Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) departs from the 38th CD to seek election in new District 41.

Peltola Announces for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Senate

Former Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) announces her Senate candidacy in this Facebook post.

Reports from last week suggesting that former Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) was seriously considering running for the Senate this year have proven correct. Peltola, defeated for re-election to the House in 2024, announced Tuesday that she will challenge two-term Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan later this year.

Though the Senate race was always on the table for Peltola, her decision to jump into this challenger contest is still a bit surprising. Considering the crowded Republican field running in the open Governor’s campaign, it appeared that Peltola would be assured of qualifying for the general election with a reasonable chance of winning the Governorship against possibly three Republicans advancing from the state’s unique top four primary system. Peltola’s chance improves even further when such a scenario advances to the Ranked Choice Voting round, through which she won her two congressional races.

The Alaska electoral system features an August jungle qualifying election where all candidates are placed on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation. The top four finishers then advance into the general election. If no candidate receives majority support, the Ranked Choice Voting rounds begin.

The top four/Ranked Choice Voting system was challenged at the ballot box in 2024 through a voter initiative and survived by just 664 votes in the statewide tabulation. System opponents have again filed for another run at repealing the system and it appears enough signatures have been filed to qualify for the 2026 ballot. Even if the repeal proponents are successful in the ‘26 election, however, the top four process will still be in effect for the present cycle.

Though polling is already showing a Sullivan-Peltola Senate race to be a virtual toss-up, such is not surprising at this point in the election cycle. It is common to see the Alaska Democratic candidates consistently polling better early than they actually perform when votes are counted on election day.

For example, in the 2020 presidential race, President Trump appeared to be in a dead heat with future President Joe Biden in the Last Frontier, but the Republican ended with a secure 10-point win. In the 2024 congressional race, then-Rep. Peltola led Republican Nick Begich III by 9-14 percentage points in early polling before losing in a 51-49 percent Ranked Choice Voting final.

While Sen. Sullivan should still be regarded as the favorite for re-election, Peltola’s candidacy certainly makes the Senate race competitive. Looking at the rest of the country, we now see eight states where voters will decide a potentially tight Senate election.

In addition to Alaska, Republicans will be defending key Senate seats in Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Texas, while Democrats must protect Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire. For Democrats to reach a majority status of 51 Senate seats in this election, they would have to win seven of these eight hotly contested campaigns.

While the Peltola candidacy in Alaska puts another Republican Senate state in play for the Democrats, the party chances of capturing the majority in 2026 are still slim, but they may lessen the current 53-47 GOP margin.