By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2024
House
Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) / Photo by Gage Skidmore
Saying, “I will not allow dark money that is directed at destroying me personally to steal this seat. It’s not fair to the 3rd District and the conservatives there who have fought so hard for our victories,” Rep. Boebert announced that she is leaving her western Colorado congressional seat to seek re-election in eastern Colorado’s 4th CD. The 4th is open because five-term Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor) is retiring.
Together, the 3rd and 4th districts form a virtual horseshoe within the state’s confines. The 3rd contains Colorado’s northwest border and the state’s entire western boundary shared with Utah. The 4th encompasses the Centennial State’s northeast border and the entire eastern edge shared with Nebraska and Kansas. Together, the two districts then form Colorado’s southern border co-occupied with New Mexico and Oklahoma.
While Rep. Boebert faces difficult odds in attempting to capture the Republican nomination in an unfamiliar open district, a reconfigured seat that encompasses less than five percent of the constituency that initially elected her in 2020, her chances are likely better than winning the general election in her current CD even though CO-3 is considered a relatively safe Republican seat.
Her move is largely an admission that she would not win re-election in the 3rd District, especially with 2022 Democratic opponent Adam Frisch (D), a former Aspen City Councilman, having already raised just under $8 million through the Sept. 30 campaign finance period. During the same period, Rep. Boebert raised $2.4 million.
Boebert, who won with the closest 2022 re-election of any House race in the country (a 546-vote margin from 327,132 cast ballots), severely under-performed in a 3rd District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+15. It was clear that she would be the most endangered incumbent seeking re-election in a non-redistricting political situation.
Therefore, her switch to the 4th CD, Colorado’s safest Republican seat (FiveThirtyEight: R+26; Daily Kos Elections ranks it as the 115th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference), not only enhances Rep. Boebert’s ability to remain in Congress but is a major boon to the Republican Party because a new 3rd District GOP candidate will begin at least on an even footing with Frisch.