Monthly Archives: December 2018

Projecting Apportionment

By Jim Ellis

Dec. 7, 2018 — New population growth numbers are now available from the Census Bureau, allowing us to gain more clues about how the coming 2020 post-census apportionment might look for the nation’s congressional districts.

Every 10 years, states gain and lose CDs based upon their total population and percentage growth figures. The current US population of 327,774,453 represents a growth rate of 5.96 percent when compared to 2010.

Currently, Idaho is the fastest growing state for 2018, with a gain of 2.15 percent for the current year, the only state to break the two percent barrier for the period. Nevada (1.96 percent), Utah (1.85 percent), Washington (1.69 percent), and Florida (1.56 percent) round out the top five.

The group constituting the bottom half of the top 10 in 2018 growth contains Arizona (1.53 percent), Texas (1.41 percent), Colorado (1.37 percent), Oregon (1.37 percent), and South Carolina (1.28 percent).

On the other hand, eight states, led by Wyoming (-0.97 percent), actually lost population during the year. The others are West Virginia, Illinois, Alaska, Hawaii, Mississippi, Louisiana, and North Dakota.

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Two House Races Still Not Decided

By Jim Ellis

Dec. 6, 2018 — Two House races are still not finalized, with one possibly headed for a new election. In California, action is still not complete now almost a month after Election Day. Democrat T.J. Cox leads Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Bakersfield) by 843 votes in the 21st District with an undetermined number of ballots remaining to be counted. It does appear that Cox will be declared the winner, but the election officials actually doing finalizing the race still have not done so.

In North Carolina, the state Board of Elections has blocked certifying Republican Mark Harris’ victory over Democratic businessman Dan McCready in the state’s open 9th District. The seat went to open status after the North Carolina primary in May when Harris, formerly a Baptist pastor, upset Rep. Bob Pittenger (R-Charlotte) in the Republican primary.

Ironically, a practice referred to as “ballot harvesting” appears to be at the heart of the California political overtime races and this one suspended result in North Carolina. Ballot harvesting is the act of an individual gathering absentee ballots from voters, bundling them together, and turning them over to election officers for counting purposes. In California, ballot harvesting is now legal. In North Carolina, it is not.

In the Golden State, the Valadao district is the last to turn. In five other seats, all Republican held, the GOP candidate led through Election Day and mail counting, only to see the tables turn when provisional ballots were added. Statewide, almost 2 million votes were in this category, so an average of approximately 35,000 such votes were present in most congressional districts.

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Analyzing the 2018 Vote

By Jim Ellis

Dec. 5, 2018 — The Pew Research Center recently released a series of reports about the 2018 electoral patterns that allow us to better understand what happened in last month’s voting.

Clearly, the election produced mixed results: Republicans gained two seats in the Senate; Democrats reached near-wave proportions in the House; Democrats converted a net seven governorships, yet only scored new majorities in six legislative chambers and produced at least temporary redistricting control in just one state (Colorado).

But, why did these unusual results happen? The Pew findings provide us clues.

Among college-educated women, according to the Pew research, 59 percent voted Democratic for the House of Representatives as compared to only 39 percent choosing the respective Republican candidate. College-educated men broke 51-47 percent for the Republican congressional candidate. Compared to other years, college-educated women, who normally break Democratic, did so to a greater degree in 2018, whereas college-educated men failed to reach Republican margins typically found.

Therefore, Democratic strategists, who heavily weighted the highly educated segment believing a turnout surge within this sector would occur, proved correct.

Perhaps indicative of how the Republicans performed, the Pew study uncovered a segment of voters that showed that only 10 percent of Republican voters mentioned economic policies in explaining their vote motivation with only two percent citing the “good economy.”

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Setting the 2020 Stage – Part II

By Jim Ellis

Dec. 4, 2018 — Continuing with our look at what will likely be the top 2020 Republican conversion targets, below are the remaining nine districts on our list:

  1. NM-2 (Rep-Elect Xochitl Torres-Small; 51-49 percent):
  2. In 2008, when then-Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs) left the district for an unsuccessful statewide run, the Democrats converted the district. Pearce re-appeared for the 2010 congressional wars and returned the 2nd District to the Republican column. Could history repeat itself? It’s a possibility. Attorney Xochitl Torres-Small just got by state Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo) in a tight finish that turned the Democrat’s way at the very end.
    With Pearce again losing a statewide bid, he is already saying that he would consider yet another congressional comeback. If he decides to run again, this will be a top-tier race from the beginning of the 2020 election cycle to the end.

  3. NY-19 (Rep-Elect Antonio Delgado; 49-46 percent):
  4. Freshman Rep. John Faso (R-Kinderhook) fell to newcomer Anthony Delgado (D) in a clear ideological contrast race between a conservative and a liberal. Though Rep. Faso strategically tried to paint Delgado into a Democratic Socialist corner, the move failed as the challenger scored a 7,543-vote victory, which is far beyond recount territory. It is unclear whether Faso will file for a re-match in 2020, but this district, which has voted more Republican than Democratic over the years, will attract a top-tier challenger regardless of what he decides.
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Setting the 2020 Stage – Part I

By Jim Ellis

Dec. 3, 2018 — The election of Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-IL) as the new Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) chair at last week’s House Democratic Conference, and Rep. Tom Emmer’s (R-MN) previous selection to lead the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) for the coming election cycle means the national players are coming into focus for the next campaign year.

Bustos topped Washington Reps. Denny Heck (D-Olympia) and Suzan DelBene (D-Medina/Redmond) 117-83-32 in the conference election to officially head the DCCC. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) was also a candidate, but he is hospitalized recovering from a bacterial infection and was unable to attend the meeting. He failed to convince the membership to postpone the internal election.

With a partisan division of 235D – 200R in the 116th Congress, the Republicans will need a net gain of at least 18 seats to re-take the House majority. With 43 seats that flipped from Republican to Democrat in the November election, the field would appear ripe for GOP challenge efforts.

The first category that we cover today is comprised of the most obvious seats that will be battleground districts in 2020. A total of 18 seats can currently be considered for this category and again figure to be among the most competitive districts in the next election cycle.

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