By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2025
Senate
Louisiana US Sen. Bill Cassidy (R)
Late last week, St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden announced that she will join the growing group of Cassidy primary opponents. Already in the race are State Treasurer, ex-Deputy White House chief of staff, and former US Congressman John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia), and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta.
Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) continues to dangle the possibility of her entering the race. If she decides not to become a statewide candidate, state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), chair of the Louisiana House Ways & Means Committee and a partner in the Trafalgar Group polling firm, is likely to come forth.
Late last year, the legislature and Governor changed Louisiana’s election system. Instead of a jungle primary for federal races, the state returns to a partisan primary format. Therefore, the new primaries are scheduled for April 18. If no candidate secures majority support in the initial election, a runoff between the top two finishers will occur on May 30.
Louisiana became the first state to initiate the jungle primary process and did so in 1975. Then, the state held a September primary and if a candidate received majority support in that initial vote, he or she was elected outright and did not proceed to the November general election.
After a US Justice Department inquiry and subsequent ruling, Louisiana was forced to hold a general election for all offices in order to comply with federal law. The Bayou State leaders then moved their jungle primary to the national election day and scheduled an early December runoff for any race where no candidate obtained majority support.
When Gov. Jeff Landry (R) was elected in 2023, one of his first legislative initiatives was to urge the legislature to reinstitute the partisan primary system. The eventual compromise measure, which was enacted, created the new primary for federal offices and some state contests, but left in place the November/December system for others.
As a former member of Congress, Gov. Landry made the argument that the state was punishing its new members because much happens in terms of assigning important committee posts and choosing leadership positions soon after the general election. Often, the leadership elections and administrative processes concluded even before a new Louisiana member won the right to come to Washington.
Therefore, Landry and others argued, and the legislature agreed, the election system was relegating their delegation to an adverse position particularly with regard to committee assignments.
The new partisan primary system appears detrimental to Sen. Cassidy. As one of the few Republican Senators to support impeaching President Trump over the January 6 protest at the Capitol, Sen. Cassidy now becomes more vulnerable in a partisan Republican primary next April than he would have been in a jungle election 13 months from now.
It is highly unlikely that Cassidy will receive a Trump endorsement in a crowded primary, especially when it is not clear that the incumbent would prevail. The Trump endorsement has proven very strong for candidates especially when the President is on the ballot. The success record for those receiving the presidential stamp of approval is somewhat less positive in an off-year election, however.
Louisiana Treasurer Fleming was elected to his statewide post in November. Previously, he served four terms representing the 4th Congressional District, immediately preceding now House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). After running unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2016, President Trump appointed Fleming as an Assistant Secretary for the Department of Commerce, and the former Congressman then became Deputy White House chief of staff toward the end of the first Trump Administration.
Though he has a long relationship with the President, Fleming has yet to catch fire in his Senate primary against Sen. Cassidy. He has put $2 million into his campaign but seems to remove it once the quarterly campaign financial disclosure period ends. Therefore, it is unclear if he is serious about spending his own money for the Senate campaign.
Clearly, Rep. Letlow or state Rep. Emerson will prove to be Sen. Cassidy’s most viable opponents. It is unlikely that both will enter the race, thus making the one who does an even stronger candidate.
With the Louisiana deadline for candidates to file nominating petitions fast approaching on Dec. 17, final decisions about entering the 2026 Senate race will soon be made.
The Louisiana Senate race will certainly be a campaign to watch early in the election cycle. From the Cassidy perspective, winning renomination outright in April becomes of high importance. Being forced into a runoff election, meaning a majority of the voters will have chosen someone other than the incumbent, would suggest political doom for the two-term Senator.