By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 5, 2026
Senate
Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg)
Public Policy Polling (Feb. 23-24; 546 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) released the results of its survey for the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, which supports Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) in her bid for the US Senate. The data still find Rep. Krishnamoorthi posting an advantage in the primary campaign, but his dominance appears dissipating. The PPP results project Krishnamoorthi’s lead dropping to 29-27-13 percent over Stratton and US Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/ Chicago).
Over the course of the Illinois campaign, 15 Democratic polls have been released of the Senate race from seven different pollsters. In the 14 before the latest PPP data was publicized, Krishnamoorthi led in all surveys and averaged 37.2 percent preference. This put his mean average support figure 18.3 percentage points ahead of Lt. Gov. Stratton, who has placed second in all but one of the surveys.
Therefore, it remains to be seen if this PPP survey result proves a harbinger of the closing polls or is an outlier.
A key reason for the Stratton surge is the backing of the Illinois Future PAC, which reports budgeting approximately $10 million on her behalf. More than half of the PAC funding comes from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), his family, and allies. Stratton has been the Governor’s running mate in the past two elections. Prior to gaining her statewide position, she had been elected to one term in the Illinois House of Representatives from a Chicago district.
Rep. Kelly has languished in third place since the beginning, popping up to second in just one survey. It is clear the race is coming down to a choice between Rep. Krishnamoorthi and Lt. Gov. Stratton.
In addition to dominating the early polling, Rep. Krishnamoorthi has also been the race’s top fundraiser; hence, the importance of Pritzker coming through to help Stratton with the Super PAC financing.
For the campaign, as reported to the Federal Election Commission in his year-end disclosure document, Krishnamoorthi had raised $28.5 million, $19.3 million of which he was able to transfer from his US House campaign. The Congressman has been one of the most prolific fundraisers in the House, and his years of accumulating political capital has come to fruition for this Senate race.
Beginning in 2026, Rep. Krishnamoorthi had over $15 million cash on hand. This compares to just $1.1 million for Lt. Gov. Stratton. Again, the importance of the Pritzker-backed Super PAC has allowed her the ability to counter some of Krishnamoorthi’s campaign-long media blitz.
The Illinois’ March 17 primary will feature no runoff election. Therefore, whichever of the 10 candidates has the highest raw number of votes, regardless of percentage attained, will win the primary election. Therefore, we will see a victor on election night.
On the Republican side, former Illinois Republican Party chairman and 2010 Lieutenant Governor candidate Don Tracy has worked himself into the best position to capture the party nomination. The most competitive of his five opponents is attorney Jeannie Evans, but she appears as only a long-shot candidate.
For the general election, the Democratic primary winner is a lock to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the general election as Illinois continues to perform as one of the strongest Democratic states in the nation. The last Republican to win a Land of Lincoln statewide race is former Senator Mark Kirk in 2010. Currently, there is no Republican holding any Illinois statewide elected position.