By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Senate
A new Detroit media poll finds former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) leading all of his potential Democratic opponents in the Michigan open Senate race.
In 2024, Rogers lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) by just three-tenths of one percent, or 19,006 votes of more than 5.5 million ballots cast. He represented the state’s Lansing area anchored congressional district from 2001-2015 and chaired the House Intelligence Committee for four years.
The Glengariff Group, polling for the Detroit News and WDIV-Channel 4 (Jan. 2-6; 600 likely Michigan general election voters; live interview), found Rogers at least slightly topping his three potential Democratic opponents: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.
The former seven-term Representative’s strongest showing, 48.0 – 41.6 percent, came opposite Dr. El-Sayed. The closest, a virtual tie, was against Rep. Stevens (44.1 – 43.7 percent). If Sen. McMorrow were his general election opponent, Rogers would post a 45.7 – 42.4 percent margin.
Though these results are good news for Rogers and the Republicans, the other poll questions suggest a bad political climate for the GOP; hence, as we have seen in other places, many of the respondents’ answers appear inconsistent.
For example, by a 55.0 – 34.0 percent margin the respondents feel the United States is on the wrong track. The generic question regarding the party in which the respondent would support for Congress found the Democrats enjoying a 41.7 – 35.6 percent advantage. The fact that Rogers is leading his race despite the political climate numbers currently favoring the Democrats is obviously a positive sign for his 2026 campaign.
The other advantage for Rogers is the three Democrats being locked in a difficult primary battle. The Real Clear Politics polling average for the most recent recorded period (Oct. 23 – Nov. 21, 2025) found Rep. Stevens holding only a 26-24-18 percent Democratic primary edge over Sen. McMorrow and Dr. El-Sayed, respectively.
The fact that this will be a resource-draining primary for the Democratic contenders and not decided until Aug. 4 is another advantage for Rogers who faces only former Michigan Republican Party co-chair Bernadette Smith and businessman Andrew Kamal for the GOP nomination.
His largely unencumbered path to the party nomination will allow Rogers more uncontested time for fundraising and building a campaign organization. In 2024, Slotkin outspent Rogers by a better than 4:1 margin. This time, he will have the time and the presence to substantially improve his own fundraising while his Democratic opponents are spending heavily against each other.
Despite his fundraising disadvantage in ’24, Rogers outperformed the polling with his close loss. According to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, 13 statewide polls were conducted from Oct. 24 through the election on Nov. 4. Slotkin averaged a 2.3 data-point lead in the aggregate 13-poll universe, and trailed in only one survey, while two ballot tests were tied.
Most of her advantage came at the beginning of the late October period, however. As the race closed, three surveys were conducted just before the election and each pollster, Atlas Intel, the Trafalgar Group, and Insider Advantage, correctly foresaw that the contest was evolving into a pure toss-up. Atlas Intel posted Slotkin to a one-point lead, and both Trafalgar and IA found the two candidates tied. Therefore, the later pollsters correctly predicted that the momentum had switched to Rogers as the campaign closed.
At this point, it appears the Michigan open race is the Republicans’ best opportunity to convert a Democratic Senate seat. With their 53-47 majority on the line, a GOP victory in the Wolverine State would virtually guarantee that the party would hold its majority.
The Michigan seat is open because two-term incumbent Gary Peters (D) chose not to seek a third term. He likely would have been favored for re-election.
Through the modern political era, Democrats have enjoyed strong success in the Wolverine State US Senate races. The last time a Republican won a Michigan Senate contest came in 1994 when Spencer Abraham scored an upset win. Sen. Homer Ferguson, with his re-election win in 1948, is the most recent Michigan Republican to win a second term.
It is clear that another hard-fought Michigan US Senate campaign will be a premier 2026 national contest. Already competitive, we can again count on seeing a close finish.