By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, January 7, 2026
House
California Congressman Doug LaMalfa
Rep. LaMalfa’s death will lead to a special election and likely in California’s new 1st Congressional District. Running in the new district will give the Democrats a distinct advantage to convert the seat.
According to the redistricting Proposition 50 verbiage that voters passed in a Nov. 4 special election, the new plan would be in effect from the beginning of 2026 until the California Citizens Redistricting Commission redraws the map after the 2030 census. Therefore, it is a virtual certainty that the special election will be held in the new district, though seeing a lawsuit arguing otherwise could be forthcoming. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will schedule the special election to replace the late Congressman.
LaMalfa, after serving three terms in the state Assembly and being elected to the state Senate, claimed the 1st District congressional seat in 2012. He was re-elected six times, including November of 2024. In his seven congressional elections, LaMalfa averaged 59.5 percent of the vote.
It is arguable that Rep. LaMalfa received the worst draw of any California Republican incumbent when comparing the new 1st District to the 1st CD from which he was elected. The northern California draw was largely conceived to give state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) the opportunity of running for the US House.
Under the California term limits law, McGuire is ineligible to seek re-election to the state Senate this year. Considering that Gov. Newsom needed a two-thirds vote in each legislative chamber to place the redistricting map on the special election ballot as a referendum, a favorable 1st District was drawn to benefit the Senate President at the expense of Rep. LaMalfa.
The change is dramatic. The new 1st contains only 43 percent of the territory that constituted the previous 1st District, with 57 percent of the new constituency coming from the Democratic districts of Reps. Jared Huffman (D-San Raphael) and Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena/ Clear Lake). According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the 1st District partisan lean moves from a 60.2R – 37.7D Republican advantage to a pro-Democratic edge of 55.2D – 44.1R. Therefore, the chances of the Republicans retaining the seat, even if Rep. LaMalfa would have run for re-election, are for them less than favorable.
The death of LaMalfa and Monday’s official resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) leaves the Republican majority margin at 218-213, with each party yielding two vacant seats.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announced yesterday that the special election to replace Rep. Greene is scheduled for March 10. All candidates will be placed on a jungle election ballot. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers, irrespective of partisan affiliation, will advance to a runoff election no later than 28 days after the initial vote. As the safest Republican seat in Georgia (DRA partisan lean: 69.2R – 28.9D) the GOP will retain the seat in the upcoming special election.
On Jan. 31, Houston, Texas voters will decide between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) who died last March. Regardless of the outcome, both candidates will then advance into a March 3 regular Democratic primary election, though one will be an incumbent. There, they will face Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) and others in a reconfigured 18th District under the new Texas redistricting map. Should no candidate receive majority support in the regular primary, a runoff will occur on May 26.
In northern New Jersey, voters will go to the polls in partisan primaries on Feb. 5 to choose nominees for the purpose of replacing Gov-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) in the 11th Congressional District. The special general election is scheduled for April 16. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat. Once this election is complete, the House will have a full complement of 435 members for the first time since Rep. Grijalva passed away on March 13, 2025.