By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025
Early Voting
The statisticians at the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) have been tracking the available early vote numbers and their excellent reports are finding an unexpected trend.
Through Oct. 24, early voting in Virginia is running ahead of its 2021 statewide pace. In 2021, 1,194,252 people voted before Election Day. Through Oct. 24 of this year, 898,559 have voted, or 75.2 percent of 2021’s early participants. In ‘21, a total of 36.3 percent of Virginia voters cast their ballots before Election Day.
According to VPAP, the 2025 totals are running almost 45% higher than the 2021 early voting pace. At this point in time four years ago, 619,738 individuals had voted 11 days before the election. This means almost half (48%) of the ’21 early voters cast their ballot in the last week prior to Election Day.
The most surprising early trend, however, is that the five Republican congressional districts are outperforming all six Democratic districts in terms of comparing their own 2021 early vote turnout figures to the present numbers.
According to the Oct. 24 VPAP report, District 9 (Rep. Morgan Griffith-R) has already seen more early voters this year (73,655) than it did in all of 2021 (72,503). According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the 9th is the Republicans’ strongest Virginia congressional district (69.7R – 29.1D), meaning the early vote number appears to be good news for the three statewide ballot nominees.
The district with the most early voters so far (125,257) is Rep. Rob Wittman’s (R-Montross) 1st CD. The current raw number represents 98.4 percent of the 1st District’s total 2021 early votes. In the previous Virginia election from four years ago, VA-1 ranked third in early voting participation. The 1st has a partisan lean of 54.1R – 44.1D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations).
Another related surprising trend is that all five Republican congressional districts have also exceeded the statewide early vote participation benchmark figure of 75.2 percent based upon 2021’s final early vote total. None of the six Democratic congressional electorates have individually reached the 75.2 percent early vote participation percentage this year.
Conversely, Northern Virginia’s early vote turnout, the heartland of Democratic strength in the state, is performing well below its previous pace.
In 2021, the top early voting district in the state was CD-10 (Rep. Subhas Subramanyam-D) with a final early vote total of 139,806 individuals. This year, District 10 ranks 5th in early vote turnout percentage when compared to its previous 2021 final number. The 10th’s 2025 turnout percentage is 59.0 percent based upon the 2021 final performance figure.
The district with the largest drop-off so far when compared to its 2021 performance is the Alexandria/Arlington-anchored 8th CD (Rep. Don Beyer-D). In 2021, the 8th District had the fourth highest early voting raw number participation in the state, but this year it ranks 10th of the 11 Virginia congressional districts. Through Oct. 24, the 8th District has seen only 58.1 percent of its early voting number from 2021 come to the polls. This percentage ranks last in the state.
The best performing early voting northern Virginia district to date is District 11 (Rep. James Walkinshaw-D), yet its 66.1 percent early turnout rate when compared to 2021 performance only ranks 9th in the state, down from sixth.
The biggest position gainers among the 11 congressional districts are VA-5 (Rep. John McGuire-R) and VA-6 (Rep. Ben Cline-R). Both have moved up five slots when compared to their 2021 performances with 94.4 and 88.0 percentages, respectively.
The change in the early voting numbers, which have previously been strong indicators of eventual election outcome, obviously favor the Republicans at this point and suggests the party has an advantage relating to the enthusiasm gap. It is important to remember, however, that almost half of the 2021 early vote came during the period’s last week, which means these preliminary 2025 early vote numbers and trends could still dramatically change.
It is further noteworthy to remember that Republicans won the 2021 election, meaning Democrats must exceed their vote totals and trends from that year. At this point in the voting cycle, it appears the Democrats have a sizable, but not impossibly high, mountain to climb during the last week of early voting and on Election Day itself.