By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 31, 2025
House
Michigan’s 10th Congressional District (Click on image or here to see full-size Michigan state map.)
Former Congressman Mike Bishop (R), who held Michigan’s former 8th District for two terms before losing to Elissa Slotkin (D) in 2018, this week made positive comments about possibly making a comeback bid in the state’s current 10th District next year. The seat will be open because two-term incumbent John James (R-Farmington Hills) is running for Governor.
The son of another prominent Oakland County office holder, Mike Bouchard Jr., is expected to announce his congressional run when he returns from an overseas assignment with the Army National Guard later this year. Mike Bouchard Sr. is the Oakland County Sheriff who was first elected in 1999 after serving nine years in the Michigan House and Senate and running unsuccessfully for both Governor and the US Senate.
Prominent Republicans have, heretofore, been slow to come forward in this district, while a number of Democrats declared much earlier. The top Democrats in the race are former US Commerce Department official Eric Chung, Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, Army Reserve Officer and ex-congressional aide Alex Hawkins, and 2024 Macomb County Prosecutor nominee Christina Hines.
The 10th District, created as a new open seat in the 2021 redistricting plan, lies to the northeast of Detroit and contains three-quarters of Macomb County and less than 10 percent of Oakland County. The district includes the Warren, Sterling Heights, and Rochester Hills communities.
Rep. James has won two close US House elections against the same Democratic opponent, former Macomb County Judge and ex-County Prosecutor Carl Marlinga.
In 2022, the district yielded one of the tightest finishes in the congressional election cycle, a 48.8 – 48.3 percent James victory margin. In November, the incumbent won re-election with a more substantial 51.1 – 45.0 percent spread. The latter result was similar to President Trump’s 2024 performance in the 10th District. He defeated Kamala Harris 52.2 – 45.7 percent.
Both President Trump and Rep. James outperformed the Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean, which is calculated at 49.5D – 47.9R, which is one of the closest ratios in the country. The eventual Republican nominee will be forced to perform in a likewise manner if the party is to hold the seat in 2026.
The 2024 congressional race featured a large amount of outside spending largely because Marlinga was unable to prove himself as a strong fundraiser. According to the Open Secrets.com data site, the MI-10 race drew more than $17 million in outside spending, approximately $10.1 million of which was spent to aid Marlinga. The district ranked 25th in the nation in terms of attracting outside resources and it is likely that more will come into the open seat race for 2026.
Looking at the total candidate expenditures, Rep. James raised and spent more than $9.4 million as compared to Marlinga’s $2.9 million. The outside spending made the aggregate $13.2 million for Marlinga as compared to Rep. James’ $16.3 million. Expect all of these numbers to rise for the 2026 open campaign.
Currently, 22 seats will be open for the next election, but only two appear to be highly competitive for the 2026 general election. MI-10 and NE-2 — the latter seat opening due to incumbent Nebraska US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) retiring — at this point will attract the most political attention and outside resources in the open seat category.
With Republicans defending both seats, each will have a major role in determining which party controls the House when the 120th Congress begins in January of 2027.