By Jim Ellis
Jan. 15, 2021 — Now that the presidential numbers are final and certified in all 50 states, we can begin to draw comparisons between the two Trump election years and see the states where movement was most significant.
The 2020 election results show interesting parallels in the race between President Donald Trump and President-Elect Joe Biden and the 2016 race between Trump and Hillary Clinton.
As you will see from the following charts, most states performed similarly in 2020 as they did in 2016. In the preponderance of places, both President Trump and President-Elect Joe Biden posted better percentages in 2020, though Trump recorded slightly lower 2020 percentages in 13 states as compared to Biden falling below 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in only one (Mississippi).
The change factors are largely due to lesser independent and minor party candidates on the 2020 ballot as opposed to 2016 and an increase in first-time voters.
Nationally, as determined in all 50 states, President Trump’s numbers increased an average of one percentage point per state, while Biden saw a mean average four percent jump over Clinton’s standing.
The first charts depict President Trump’s state totals in alphabetical order. To reiterate, his per state average gain was 1.0 percent. The second chart shows the states in order of the largest gains.
The succeeding Democratic charts illustrate Biden’s increased performance over that of Clinton. Though his national per state victory margin over President Trump was low in comparison to 2016 – changing Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and the 2nd District of Nebraska would have changed the national outcome and the aggregate vote margin was only 65,009 – his standing in every state was significantly better than hers. The Biden average per state gain was 4.0 percent.
REPUBLICAN
Alphabetical
| STATE | 2016 R | 2020 R | AVG GAIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 62.1% | 62.3% | 0.2% |
| Alaska | 51.3% | 52.8% | 1.5% |
| Arizona | 48.7% | 49.1% | 0.4% |
| Arkansas | 60.6% | 62.4% | 1.8% |
| California | 31.6% | 34.3% | 2.7% |
| Colorado | 43.2% | 41.9% | -1.3% |
| Connecticut | 40.9% | 39.2% | -1.7% |
| Delaware | 41.7% | 39.8% | -1.9% |
| Florida | 49.0% | 51.2% | 2.2% |
| Georgia | 50.8% | 49.2% | -1.6% |
| Hawaii | 29.4% | 33.9% | 4.5% |
| Idaho | 59.3% | 63.8% | 4.5% |
| Illinois | 38.8% | 40.6% | 1.8% |
| Indiana | 56.9% | 57.0% | 0.1% |
| Iowa | 51.2% | 52.8% | 1.6% |
| Kansas | 56.6% | 56.2% | -0.4% |
| Kentucky | 62.5% | 62.1% | -0.4% |
| Louisiana | 58.1% | 58.5% | 0.4% |
| Maine | 43.5% | 43.6% | 0.1% |
| Maryland | 33.9% | 32.2% | -1.7% |
| Massachusetts | 32.3% | 39.1% | 6.8% |
| Michigan | 47.6% | 47.8% | 0.2% |
| Minnesota | 44.9% | 45.3% | 0.4% |
| Mississippi | 57.9% | 41.1% | -0.3% |
| Missouri | 56.8% | 56.8% | 0.0% |
| Montana | 56.2% | 56.9% | 0.7% |
| Nebraska | 58.7% | 58.2% | -0.5% |
| Nevada | 45.5% | 47.8% | 2.3% |
| New Hampshire | 46.5% | 45.4% | -1.1% |
| New Jersey | 41.4% | 41.4% | 0.0% |
| New Mexico | 40.0% | 43.5% | 3.5% |
| New York | 36.1% | 37.5% | 1.4% |
| North Carolina | 49.8% | 49.9% | 0.1% |
| North Dakota | 65.1% | 31.8% | 2.1% |
| Ohio | 51.7% | 53.3% | 1.6% |
| Oklahoma | 65.3% | 65.4% | 0.1% |
| Oregon | 40.4% | 56.5% | 0.7% |
| Pennsylvania | 48.6% | 48.8% | 0.2% |
| Rhode Island | 38.9% | 38.6% | -0.3% |
| South Carolina | 54.9% | 55.1% | 0.2% |
| South Dakota | 61.5% | 61.8% | 0.3% |
| Tennessee | 60.7% | 60.7% | 0.0% |
| Texas | 53.2% | 52.1% | -1.1% |
| Utah | 45.5% | 58.1% | 12.6% |
| Vermont | 29.8% | 30.9% | 1.1% |
| Virginia | 44.4% | 44.0% | -0.4% |
| Washington | 36.8% | 38.8% | 2.0% |
| West Virginia | 68.6% | 68.7% | 0.1% |
| Wisconsin | 47.2% | 48.8% | 1.6% |
| Wyoming | 67.4% | 69.5% | 2.1% |
Performance Increase
| STATE | 2016 R | 2020 R | AVG GAIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | 45.5% | 58.1% | 12.6% |
| Massachusetts | 32.3% | 39.1% | 6.8% |
| Hawaii | 29.4% | 33.9% | 4.5% |
| Idaho | 59.3% | 63.8% | 4.5% |
| New Mexico | 40.0% | 43.5% | 3.5% |
| California | 31.6% | 34.3% | 2.7% |
| Nevada | 45.5% | 47.8% | 2.3% |
| Florida | 49.0% | 51.2% | 2.2% |
| North Dakota | 65.1% | 31.8% | 2.1% |
| Wyoming | 67.4% | 69.5% | 2.1% |
| Washington | 36.8% | 38.8% | 2.0% |
| Arkansas | 60.6% | 62.4% | 1.8% |
| Illinois | 38.8% | 40.6% | 1.8% |
| Iowa | 51.2% | 52.8% | 1.6% |
| Ohio | 51.7% | 53.3% | 1.6% |
| Wisconsin | 47.2% | 48.8% | 1.6% |
| Alaska | 51.3% | 52.8% | 1.5% |
| New York | 36.1% | 37.5% | 1.4% |
| Vermont | 29.8% | 30.9% | 1.1% |
| Oregon | 40.4% | 56.5% | 0.7% |
| Montana | 56.2% | 56.9% | 0.7% |
| Arizona | 48.7% | 49.1% | 0.4% |
| Louisiana | 58.1% | 58.5% | 0.4% |
| Minnesota | 44.9% | 45.3% | 0.4% |
| South Dakota | 61.5% | 61.8% | 0.3% |
| Alabama | 62.1% | 62.3% | 0.2% |
| Michigan | 47.6% | 47.8% | 0.2% |
| Pennsylvania | 48.6% | 48.8% | 0.2% |
| South Carolina | 54.9% | 55.1% | 0.2% |
| Indiana | 56.9% | 57.0% | 0.1% |
| Maine | 43.5% | 43.6% | 0.1% |
| North Carolina | 49.8% | 49.9% | 0.1% |
| Oklahoma | 65.3% | 65.4% | 0.1% |
| West Virginia | 68.6% | 68.7% | 0.1% |
| Missouri | 56.8% | 56.8% | 0.0% |
| New Jersey | 41.4% | 41.4% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee | 60.7% | 60.7% | 0.0% |
| Mississippi | 57.9% | 41.1% | -0.3% |
| Rhode Island | 38.9% | 38.6% | -0.3% |
| Kansas | 56.6% | 56.2% | -0.4% |
| Kentucky | 62.5% | 62.1% | -0.4% |
| Virginia | 44.4% | 44.0% | -0.4% |
| Nebraska | 58.7% | 58.2% | -0.5% |
| New Hampshire | 46.5% | 45.4% | -1.1% |
| Texas | 53.2% | 52.1% | -1.1% |
| Colorado | 43.2% | 41.9% | -1.3% |
| Georgia | 50.8% | 49.2% | -1.6% |
| Connecticut | 40.9% | 39.2% | -1.7% |
| Maryland | 33.9% | 32.2% | -1.7% |
| Delaware | 41.7% | 39.8% | -1.9% |
DEMOCRAT
Alphabetical
| STATE | 2016 D | 2020 D | AVG GAIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 34.4% | 36.6% | 2.2% |
| Alaska | 36.5% | 42.8% | 6.3% |
| Arizona | 45.1% | 49.4% | 4.3% |
| Arkansas | 33.6% | 34.8% | 1.2% |
| California | 61.7% | 63.5% | 1.8% |
| Colorado | 48.2% | 55.4% | 7.2% |
| Connecticut | 54.6% | 59.2% | 4.6% |
| Delaware | 53.1% | 58.7% | 5.6% |
| Florida | 47.8% | 47.9% | 0.1% |
| Georgia | 45.6% | 49.5% | 3.9% |
| Hawaii | 61.0% | 63.1% | 2.1% |
| Idaho | 27.5% | 33.1% | 5.6% |
| Illinois | 55.8% | 57.5% | 1.7% |
| Indiana | 37.8% | 41.0% | 3.2% |
| Iowa | 41.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% |
| Kansas | 36.0% | 41.6% | 5.6% |
| Kentucky | 32.7% | 36.1% | 3.4% |
| Louisiana | 38.4% | 39.8% | 1.4% |
| Maine | 46.4% | 52.5% | 6.1% |
| Maryland | 60.3% | 65.4% | 5.1% |
| Massachusetts | 59.0% | 65.1% | 6.1% |
| Michigan | 47.3% | 50.6% | 3.3% |
| Minnesota | 46.4% | 52.4% | 6.0% |
| Mississippi | 57.6% | 40.1% | -1.0% |
| Missouri | 38.1% | 41.4% | 3.3% |
| Montana | 35.7% | 40.6% | 4.9% |
| Nebraska | 33.7% | 39.2% | 5.5% |
| Nevada | 47.9% | 50.1% | 2.2% |
| New Hampshire | 46.8% | 52.7% | 5.9% |
| New Jersey | 55.5% | 57.3% | 1.8% |
| New Mexico | 48.3% | 54.3% | 6.0% |
| New York | 58.4% | 60.4% | 2.0% |
| North Carolina | 46.2% | 48.6% | 2.4% |
| North Dakota | 63.0% | 27.2% | 4.6% |
| Ohio | 43.6% | 45.2% | 1.6% |
| Oklahoma | 28.9% | 32.3% | 3.4% |
| Oregon | 39.1% | 50.1% | 6.4% |
| Pennsylvania | 47.8% | 50.0% | 2.2% |
| Rhode Island | 54.4% | 59.4% | 5.0% |
| South Carolina | 40.7% | 43.4% | 2.7% |
| South Dakota | 31.7% | 35.6% | 3.9% |
| Tennessee | 34.7% | 37.5% | 2.8% |
| Texas | 43.2% | 46.5% | 3.3% |
| Utah | 27.5% | 37.7% | 10.2% |
| Vermont | 55.7% | 65.5% | 9.8% |
| Virginia | 49.7% | 54.1% | 4.4% |
| Washington | 52.5% | 58.0% | 5.5% |
| West Virginia | 26.5% | 29.7% | 3.2% |
| Wisconsin | 46.5% | 49.4% | 2.9% |
| Wyoming | 21.6% | 26.4% | 4.8% |
Performance Increase
| STATE | 2016 D | 2020 D | AVG GAIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | 27.5% | 37.7% | 10.2% |
| Vermont | 55.7% | 65.5% | 9.8% |
| Colorado | 48.2% | 55.4% | 7.2% |
| Oregon | 39.1% | 50.1% | 6.4% |
| Alaska | 36.5% | 42.8% | 6.3% |
| Massachusetts | 59.0% | 65.1% | 6.1% |
| Maine | 46.4% | 52.5% | 6.1% |
| New Mexico | 48.3% | 54.3% | 6.0% |
| Minnesota | 46.4% | 52.4% | 6.0% |
| New Hampshire | 46.8% | 52.7% | 5.9% |
| Idaho | 27.5% | 33.1% | 5.6% |
| Kansas | 36.0% | 41.6% | 5.6% |
| Delaware | 53.1% | 58.7% | 5.6% |
| Nebraska | 33.7% | 39.2% | 5.5% |
| Washington | 52.5% | 58.0% | 5.5% |
| Maryland | 60.3% | 65.4% | 5.1% |
| Rhode Island | 54.4% | 59.4% | 5.0% |
| Montana | 35.7% | 40.6% | 4.9% |
| Wyoming | 21.6% | 26.4% | 4.8% |
| North Dakota | 63.0% | 27.2% | 4.6% |
| Connecticut | 54.6% | 59.2% | 4.6% |
| Virginia | 49.7% | 54.1% | 4.4% |
| Arizona | 45.1% | 49.4% | 4.3% |
| Georgia | 45.6% | 49.5% | 3.9% |
| South Dakota | 31.7% | 35.6% | 3.9% |
| Oklahoma | 28.9% | 32.3% | 3.4% |
| Kentucky | 32.7% | 36.1% | 3.4% |
| Michigan | 47.3% | 50.6% | 3.3% |
| Texas | 43.2% | 46.5% | 3.3% |
| Missouri | 38.1% | 41.4% | 3.3% |
| Indiana | 37.8% | 41.0% | 3.2% |
| West Virginia | 26.5% | 29.7% | 3.2% |
| Iowa | 41.7% | 44.7% | 3.0% |
| Wisconsin | 46.5% | 49.4% | 2.9% |
| Tennessee | 34.7% | 37.5% | 2.8% |
| South Carolina | 40.7% | 43.4% | 2.7% |
| North Carolina | 46.2% | 48.6% | 2.4% |
| Alabama | 34.4% | 36.6% | 2.2% |
| Nevada | 47.9% | 50.1% | 2.2% |
| Pennsylvania | 47.8% | 50.0% | 2.2% |
| Hawaii | 61.0% | 63.1% | 2.1% |
| New York | 58.4% | 60.4% | 2.0% |
| California | 61.7% | 63.5% | 1.8% |
| New Jersey | 55.5% | 57.3% | 1.8% |
| Illinois | 55.8% | 57.5% | 1.7% |
| Ohio | 43.6% | 45.2% | 1.6% |
| Louisiana | 38.4% | 39.8% | 1.4% |
| Arkansas | 33.6% | 34.8% | 1.2% |
| Florida | 47.8% | 47.9% | 0.1% |
| Mississippi | 57.6% | 40.1% | -1.0% |
