By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 9, 2026
Senate
Alaska’s Mary Peltola (D)
The move is eyebrow-raising in that it was presumed by most that Peltola, who lost her seat in 2024 to current at-large Congressman Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak), would enter the open Governor’s race. In that campaign, she would easily have punched her ticket into the general election and eventually face a Ranked Choice Voting Republican opponent who is politically much weaker than two-term Sen. Dan Sullivan (R).
Should these reports prove true, Peltola, who won two congressional elections through the state’s top four primary system featuring the Ranked Choice Voting option, would likewise advance into the general election. Attempting to unseat Sen. Sullivan, however, might become a bridge too far.
In the 2024 congressional race, then-Rep. Peltola held a huge resource advantage over Begich. The campaign spending ratio was 5:2 in Peltola’s favor ($13.2 million to $2.6 million), yet she would lose the race by a 51.2 – 48.8 percent mark after three rounds of Ranked Choice Voting.
In a contest against Sen. Sullivan, who already has more than $5 million in his campaign account, the dollar advantage would likely fall to the incumbent, though both will have more than enough financial support to communicate their respective messages in a one-congressional district state.
Because Peltola has been circumspect for months about the race she might enter, or whether she would run for public office at all in 2026, pollsters have tested her for several offices.
Two polls were released in 2025 pitting Peltola against Sen. Sullivan. The results were not surprising as she has typically polled close in her past electoral efforts and ended with very tight results in her three congressional campaigns.
In her trio of federal political battles, winning two (both against former Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin) and losing one (to Begich), Peltola averaged 51.8 percent of the vote. All three of her races required Ranked Choice Voting rounds since none of the candidates reached the majority mark in the initial vote.
The Alaska Survey Research firm released an online US Senate campaign survey in late October of 1,908 likely voters. The result found Peltola holding a 48-46 percent lead over Sen. Sullivan. An earlier poll, from the Democratic firm Data for Progress, (published Aug. 8, 2025; 678 likely Alaska voters; online) found the Senator holding a slight 46-45 percent edge.
Data for Progress also tested Peltola in the Governor’s race. In the firm’s Aug. 8 poll, the ballot test results found the former Congresswoman commanding 40 percent support in the top four jungle primary that includes all candidates irrespective of political party affiliation. Her total compared to radio talk show host Bernadette Wilson’s (R) 11 percent preference figure while Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) attracted 10 percent support. None of the other five candidates (four Republicans and one Democrat) included in the poll broke into double-digit figures.
In the March 2025 Data for Progress survey, Peltola topped Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom 44-34 percent in a projected two-way general election. Therefore, the news breaking that Peltola has more interest in a Senate challenge than in running for the open Governor’s position was unexpected.
For the 2024 congressional race, two Republican firms, American Viewpoint and Cygnal, in August of that campaign year released polls finding then-Rep. Peltola leading Begich, 45-39 percent and 46-45 percent, respectively. A mid-September American Viewpoint survey posted Begich to a 44-40 percent edge. Finally, Cygnal’s mid-October numbers projected a Begich lead of 49-45 percent.
Thus, the aggregate polling largely proved accurate because the predicted tight finish proved true.
While Mary Peltola entering the 2026 US Senate race would probably not end in victory for her, she would certainly put the race in play for the Democrats who need a net gain of four seats to capture the Senate majority, and of course political lightning could strike. A Sullivan-Peltola race would certainly be competitive and would attract a significant amount of national political attention.