Tag Archives: Survey USA

Several Races Tighten: Fla., Ohio, Calif.

Rep. Connie Mack IV

Four new polls were released on Friday and each showed developing races that are becoming close. In yet another study that depicts Rep. Connie Mack IV
(R-FL-14) performing very well against two-term Sen. Bill Nelson (D), Survey USA produces numbers reflecting a hot Florida Senate race. According to S-USA (July 17-19; 647 likely Florida voters), Mack actually leads the incumbent Democrat 48-42 percent. The same sample gives President Obama a 48-43 percent lead over Mitt Romney, telling us there is no Republican skew in the respondent sample.

Since May 1, eight public polls of this Florida race have been released from six different pollsters (Quinnipiac University conducted three of the surveys as part of their monthly polling program). In five of the eight Nelson leads. In the other three, challenger Mack has the advantage. The swing goes all the way from 49-36 percent in the senator’s favor (Public Policy Polling; May 31-June 3) to Mack leading 46-37 percent (Rasmussen Reports, July 9). This provides us a net curve of 22 points. Such a large polling variance often reveals an extremely volatile campaign with an electorate willing to change course on a dime. There has been enough polling to tell us that the Florida Senate race features true competition and the thought that Sen. Nelson would have a relatively easy ride to re-election has now been firmly dispelled.

Staying in the Senate, Rasmussen Reports (July 18; 500 likely Ohio voters) projects that the Ohio race is continuing upon a competitive path. The latest RR data gives first-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) a 46-42 percent lead over GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel. The senator has maintained at least a small lead for most of the previous 12-month period. In the presidential race, this Rasmussen sample returned a 47-46 percent spread in the president’s favor.

Other polls have shown much stronger leads for Sen. Brown. Seven surveys have been taken of the Ohio Senate race since the beginning of May, from four different pollsters. All show Brown ahead. His advantage ranges from the four-point lead in the current Rasmussen poll all the way to sixteen (50-34 percent; Quinnipiac University, June 19-25).

Polling also indicates that two southern California congressional campaigns are very close. In the new 24th Congressional District, in what appears to be a pure 50/50 toss-up seat for incumbent Rep. Lois Capps (D), Public Opinion Strategies, polling for Republican Abel Maldonado’s campaign (June 26-28; 400 registered CA-24 voters just now released), projects a two-point race with the incumbent leading 48-46 percent. In the jungle primary, Capps received 46.4 percent, Maldonado obtained 29.7 percent, and Republican Chris Mitchum, son of late actor Robert Mitchum, garnered 21.5 percent. With the combined Republican primary vote exceeding a majority of the ballots cast (51.2 percent), the general election battle is clearly becoming a toss-up.

To the southeast in Long Beach, another survey indicates a close race developing in a newly created open seat, numbered District 47. Here, Democratic state Sen. Alan Lowenthal and Republican Long Beach City Councilman Gary DeLong qualified for the general election with the former scoring 33.8 percent to the latter’s 29.4 percent in a field of eight candidates.

Though this district sets up well for the Democrats, a Probolsky Research survey for the DeLong campaign (June 28-July 3, 400 registered CA-47 voters – released just now) gives Lowenthal only a 44-41 percent advantage as the general election campaign begins in earnest.

This race merits attention and should be considered a lower-level upset opportunity for Republicans. Lowenthal has been underwhelming on the fundraising front, raising just over $511,000, which pales in comparison to DeLong’s $862,908. Gov. Jerry Brown carried this seat 50-41 percent; Sen. Barbara Boxer won it 49-41 percent; and Democratic Attorney General Kamala Harris lost the district 39-45 percent. The Democrats’ voter registration advantage is a little over 10 percent more than Republicans. This campaign carries a Lean Democratic rating with movement toward the toss-up column.

New Poll in Oregon

The special election in Oregon’s 1st District primary – scheduled for Nov. 8 – now has two distinct leaders according to the latest public poll. Survey USA (Oct. 17-20; 522 likely OR-1 Democratic primary voters; 403 likely OR-1 GOP primary voters) gives state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici a huge lead in the Democratic Party contest, while GOP 2010 nominee Rob Cornilles enjoys an even bigger edge for the Republicans.

According to the S-USA data, Bonamici has a 52-14-9 percent lead over Oregon Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian and state Rep. Brad Witt. Cornilles has a huge advantage over marketing executive Lisa Michaels and radio talk show host Jim Greenfield on the Republican side. The numbers in the latter contest are 66-7-4 percent. The winners of the two primaries will meet in a Jan. 31 special general election. The eventual winner, likely the Democratic nominee, will replace resigned Rep. David Wu (D), and will then stand for a full term in the regular election cycle.

Poll Showed Constituents Turning Against Rep. Wu

Oregon Congressional Districts (govtrack.us)

Oregon Rep. David Wu (D-OR-1), the embattled federal politician who has been accused of having mental illness and now of sexually harassing an 18-year-old girl, has succumbed to public pressure and will resign from the House, he announced yesterday.

Several prominent Portland area Democrats had already announced their intentions to challenge the congressman and had initiated campaign operations. Despite facing multiple candidates in an electoral situation with no run-off, usually a favorable situation for even a highly vulnerable incumbent, Wu appeared headed for defeat next year. Now with the House Ethics Committee beginning an investigation into his latest controversy, Wu decided to end his congressional career. He says he will leave office after the current debt ceiling votes are complete.

Survey USA reported the findings of their most recent poll (500 OR-1 registered voters), which was conducted Monday. The results showed super majorities turning on Wu. His favorability ratio is an abysmal 10:73 percent; 75 percent believe he should leave office; and 70 percent say he would not be an effective congressman even if he were to continue in office.

Oregon’s 1st Congressional District covers the northwestern corner of the state, encompassing four complete counties and part of Multnomah, which houses the major city of Portland. The district gave President Obama 61 percent of its votes in 2008. Democratic presidential nominees Al Gore (2000) and John Kerry (2004) carried the region with more modest 50-44 and 55-44 percent margins, respectively. The new Oregon redistricting plan keeps most of OR-1 in tact.

A special election will be called to fill the remainder of Wu’s final term. Prior to the resignation announcement, Oregon Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian, state Rep. Brad Witt, and businessman Stephan Brodhead were all announced Democratic candidates. It is presumed the trio will run in the special election, along with several more individuals. Democrats will hold the seat.
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Weiner’s Real Political Problem

The sexting controversy surrounding Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY-9) rages on in the media, but his ultimate political problem may not be whether to resign. Rather, with New York losing two seats in reapportionment, the scandal could give the legislature all the reason it needs to collapse his 9th district. The other lost seat will certainly come from upstate, probably near the Buffalo area. In terms of redistricting, NY-9 would be relatively easy to cut into pieces. First, it needs an additional 57,401 people just to reach its population quota. Second, because it already contains parts of two boroughs (Kings and Queens) and cuts across New York’s Lower Bay to enjoin other precincts in order to comply with the contiguous requirements, it would be a simple task for map drawers to parcel its distinct parts to other seats.

Two polls of New York City residents were made public yesterday, and it appears that Rep. Weiner has a split constituency regarding his future. According to Survey USA (June 6; 500 New York City residents), 46 percent favor his resignation versus 41 percent who believe he should remain in office. The Marist College poll, conducted on the same day (June 6; 379 NYC registered voters) produces better numbers for the congressman. Fifty-one percent say he should remain in office, while 30 percent believe resignation is his proper course of action.

But when it comes to Weiner’s future mayoral plans — the congressman was a virtual certainty to enter the 2013 city-wide campaign — his numbers dive bomb. Asked if they would vote for Weiner should he run for mayor, just 11 percent of S-USA respondents said they would, versus 43 percent who said, “NO.” An additional 46 percent say it is too early to decide. Marist asked the question a different way, querying the respondents as to whether or not they think he should run for mayor. According to these results, 56 percent say he should not run for Mayor while 25 percent believe he should.
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