Tag Archives: South Carolina

A Look at Key June 12 Results

In addition to the Arizona election noted in our previous blog post, several key states hosted primary and run-off elections last night. Two Democratic run-offs were held in Arkansas, and freshman incumbent Rick Crawford (R-AR-1) and open-seat nominee Tom Cotton (R-AR-4) now have official Democratic challengers.

In the 1st District, a seat made even more Democratic in redistricting, District Attorney Scott Ellington slipped past state Rep. Clark Hall 51-49 percent, despite the latter having the financial advantage. This will be an interesting contest since the 1st District is even more Democratic, but Arkansas figures to be one of President Obama’s worst states. The evolution of this campaign will be worth watching.

In retiring Rep. Mike Ross’ 4th District, state Sen. Gene Jeffress romped to an easy 61-39 percent win, despite primary first place finisher Q. Byrum Hurst outspending him. Jeffress will now face Cotton in the general election. Despite the lopsided run-off win last night, this district is a prime GOP conversion opportunity.

In Maine, state Sen. Cynthia Dill (D) scored a strong 45-35-12 percent victory over former secretary of state Matt Dunlap and state Rep. Jon Hinck, respectively. Dill will face the GOP winner, former secretary of state Charlie Summers, and Independent former governor Angus King. In Dill, the Democrats have a candidate who will run a credible campaign, which, ironically, will help Summers. The only way the Republicans have a chance in a Maine statewide race is to win a close three-way race, and the groundwork is now laid for such a contest. King is still the overwhelming favorite, but it is the Dill campaign that will now help determine how this race progresses in November. This campaign has the potential of becoming quite interesting.

The North Dakota Republican electorate chose a congressional nominee different from the party-endorsed candidate. Former at-large congressional nominee Kevin Cramer upended public service commissioner and Republican convention-endorsed candidate Brian Kalk by a 55-45 percent score. Cramer will face former state representative Pam Gulleson who was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the open seat in the November election.

In South Carolina’s new 7th District, as expected, former lieutenant governor Andre Bauer and Horry County Commission Chairman Tom Rice advanced from the primary and will decide the Republican nomination in a June 26 run-off election. Bauer placed first with 32 percent of the vote as compared to Rice’s 27 percent, but the former’s margin may not be enough to hold the lead in the secondary campaign. On the Democratic side, former Georgia state representative Gloria Tinubu scored an outright 52 percent win over attorney Preston Brittain and three others. Tinubu resigned her seat in the Georgia legislature earlier in the year to come to South Carolina and run for the state’s new congressional district, an unusual situation to say the least. The Republican nominee will be the heavy favorite to win the seat in November.

Finally, in Virginia, former senator George Allen (R) was renominated with a somewhat disappointing 66 percent of the vote for the right to reclaim the seat he lost six years ago. The ex-senator defeated three minor GOP candidates. Allen will now face former governor Tim Kaine (D) in a general election campaign that promises to go down to the wire.

Weekly Redistricting Update

Now that almost all of the 43 multi-congressional district maps are legally in place, little is occurring on the redistricting front, meaning that the election year 2012 political playing field has basically been established. This notwithstanding, some action did occur in Florida, Kansas, Louisiana, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

FLORIDA (current delegation: 19R-6D; gains two seats) – The Florida Senate committee of jurisdiction passed a new state Senate map to replace the one the Florida Supreme Court recently struck down. Full Senate action is expected shortly. Expect the legal challenge to the congressional map to drag on until election timing forces a decision, a similar pattern to what has occurred in many other places. Regardless of how the lower courts rule, the congressional plan will eventually come before the Florida Supreme Court. The most difficult issue to resolve is whether the congressional map complies with the voter-enacted redistricting initiative and the measure’s inherent conflicts with the federal Voting Rights Act.

KANSAS (current delegation: 4R) – Looks like it’s back to the drawing board yet again. The state House, which previously approved the congressional map, now has voted it down, sending it back to committee for re-drawing. The state Senate and House are still miles apart on a four-district map, meaning the process could still find its way to court for a judicial draw. Kansas will likely be the last state to complete redistricting. The Sunflower State primary is Aug. 7.

LOUISIANA (current delegation: 6R-1D; loses one seat) – The US Supreme Court ruled that the state of Louisiana may not proceed with its reapportionment lawsuit this year. The state was arguing that the reapportionment formula should only be allowed to count legal residents. Louisiana lost one seat in 2010 reapportionment. The high court’s ruling means any eventual ruling on the merits of the state’s case will not affect the 2012 elections.

NEW HAMPSHIRE (current delegation: 2R) – The Granite State, with the easiest redistricting job in the country (the current lines are only 254 people out of balance) will soon pass a new congressional map, as its state legislative leaders indicated this past week. The final version will be a “least change” plan, since so little is required to bring the lines into reapportionment compliance. The approach is bad news for Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH-2), whose western district is much more Democratic than its eastern counterpart. Bass is again being challenged by the woman he beat only 48-47 percent in 2010 – Ann McLane Kuster (D).

SOUTH CAROLINA (current delegation: 5R-1D; gains one seat) – After losing their legal challenge to the new South Carolina congressional map last week, the Democratic plaintiffs have decided to appeal the ruling to the United States Supreme Court. So far, the high court has postponed action on such lawsuits (e.g., the SCOTUS decision regarding the Louisiana and West Virginia lawsuits), thus keeping the legally processed maps intact for the current election cycle. It is reasonable to believe this appeal will be handled in a similar manner, and that the Palmetto State map will stand for at least the 2012 election.

Weekly Redistricting Roundup

Major redistricting action occurred in only two states during the past week, New York and South Carolina.

NEW YORK (current delegation: 21D-8R; loses two seats) – The three-judge panel that has assumed redistricting responsibility released the congressional map this past week, and unless the legislature takes quick action, the court plan could shortly be instituted. Candidate filing is scheduled for March 24, so every day that passes without a new legislative proposal, the more likely it becomes that the court map will stand.

The legislature, of course, is more concerned with its own plans, particularly that of the state Senate. The congressional map takes a back seat to the Senate and Assembly unless it becomes a bargaining chip in negotiations between the Democratic state Assembly and the Republican Senate.

The court plan makes sizable changes to the New York congressional map, not surprisingly since the state loses two seats in reapportionment. The casualties are, first, freshman Rep. Bob Turner (R-NY-9) whose district is split into seven parts. He will now face Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-NY-5) in the new 6th District, a seat where President Obama captured 63 percent of the vote. Turner represents 46.0 percent of the new CD and Ackerman only 37.7 percent, but the district is so overwhelmingly Democratic that Turner is certain to fall.

The collapsed upstate Democratic seat is that of retiring Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D-NY-22). This territory is spread among four new districts, with the largest share going to Republican Rep. Chris Gibson’s new 19th District. Equal parcels (about 23 percent apiece from the old 22nd) go to Reps. Nan Hayworth’s (R-NY-19) new 18th CD and Richard Hanna’s (R-NY-24) new 23rd District. The dispersing of the heavily Democratic territory to Republican districts clearly weakens each of those GOP districts.

The Long Island districts will see major change. Though the 1st District of Rep. Tim Bishop (D) remains virtually intact, 96.8 percent of the territory remains because he is surrounded by water on three sides, the political number actually gets one point more Republican. Remembering that Mr. Bishop survived in the nation’s closest race last election (593 votes against businessman Randy Altschuler who is running again in 2012), this one point adjustment could become significant.

But it’s the districts of Reps. Steve Israel (D-NY-2) and Peter King (D-NY-3) that are truly torn apart. First of all, the two will swap district numbers for the next decade, and King inherits 52.7 percent of Israel’s district. He keeps 47.3 percent of his own territory. The swap increases the Obama percentage by four points, and commensurately takes the McCain number down four. This will undoubtedly cause political problems for Mr. King. Though Mr. Israel only keeps 38.8 percent of his current territory, the new 3rd CD is highly Democratic, so the unfamiliar territory should not cause him much trouble.

Carolyn McCarthy’s 4th District sees a swing of six points toward the Republican side of the ledger, but she will still be in strong political position. Mr. Ackerman’s 5th District is split into five pieces, but he becomes the beneficiary of the pairing with Mr. Turner, as described above.

In the city, all incumbents should fare well. Upstate is a different story, though. Rep. Chris Gibson’s 20th District is changed greatly. He retains only 44.1% of his current district in new CD 19 and gains more than one-third of Hinchey’s Democratic seat. Gibson’s political number swings five points more Democratic, yielding to a 53 Obama percentage. Conversely, while Rep. Bill Owens’ (D-NY-23) new 21st District remains constant in terms of voting history, he adds 32.6 percent from Gibson’s current district in the Finger Lakes region. This addition will likely spell bad news for Owens and makes him highly vulnerable if the Republicans can ever coalesce around one candidate. A split vote between Republicans and Conservatives has led to Owens winning two terms.

The Buffalo area had to change greatly. It is this section of the state that experienced the greatest overall population loss. The big winner under this new draw is Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY-27), whose new 26th District is a center city Buffalo seat. Democratic Rep. Kathy Hochul, on the other hand, is in deep trouble. Her already heavily Republican district becomes even more so under this plan, as the new 27th CD actually becomes the best John McCain district in the state (54-44 percent over President Obama).

Other freshman Republicans Tom Reed and Ann Marie Buerkle get altered territory as well. Reed only keeps 54 percent of his current district, and it becomes more Democratic (about five points more so), but he should hold the district. Buerkle keeps 79.6 percent of her Syracuse-anchored CD, but she will be highly vulnerable as former Rep. Dan Maffei (D) is gearing up another run against her. The new 24th holds its Obama rating of 56 percent.

All totaled, 19 current incumbents retain a majority of their current territory and 10 do not. Expect some highly competitive 2012 congressional campaigns. In a delegation split 21D-8R, it is clear the Democrats will retain a huge edge in the next New York congressional contingent, but the Republicans do have a fighting chance to hold eight seats of the new 27.

It remains to be seen if the map described above actually becomes the electoral footprint for this election and those to follow.

SOUTH CAROLINA (current delegation: 5R-1D; gains one seat) – The three-judge federal panel hearing what many believe is a frivolous lawsuit brought against the new seven-district plan ruled against the plaintiffs and for the state. The Democratic plaintiffs will now have to decide whether to appeal to the US Supreme Court. This ruling virtually clinches that the legally adopted map will be used for the upcoming election and almost assuredly stand for the entire decade. Expect the GOP to capture the new Myrtle Beach district and expand the delegation to 6R-1D.

Analyzing the Turnout

There have been several media stories and reports this week discussing the alleged downward voter turnout trend in the Republican presidential primaries. As so often is the case with modern-day political reporting, the supposition doesn’t hold water. While true that turnout was down in Florida, Minnesota and Missouri this past Tuesday night, voter participation has actually increased in several other states.

Turnout was mixed on Tuesday. It was up 17.3 percent in Colorado as compared to the 2008 official results, but down 23.9 percent in Minnesota. Voter participation dropped 57.2 percent in Missouri, but that was expected because the primary had no real meaning. Four years ago, the Missouri primary was an important winner-take-all contest. This year the primary vote was merely a straw poll, and the true turnout will be measured once the county caucus votes are cast on March 17.

Overall, the 2012 Republican presidential primary/caucus turnout has increased in four states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Colorado) and dropped in an equal number (Florida, Nevada, Minnesota, and Missouri). The 14.2 percent drop in Florida might be the most surprising voter participation figure since many believed the state would cast the deciding votes to effectively end the entire nomination process. South Carolina, in similar position when voters in that state cast ballots just 10 days before Florida, saw a 35.5 percent gain in turnout as compared to four years ago.

Santorum Sweeps Three; Faces Challenges Ahead

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum swept the voting last night at the Colorado and Minnesota caucuses and in the non-binding Missouri primary. With his victories, the upstart presidential candidate has now won more states (four) than any other candidate, despite spending far less money.

Finally rebounding after his surprising Iowa win but subsequently followed with poor performances in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada, Santorum topped former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 40-35 percent in Colorado, and won by a whopping 55-25 percent margin in Missouri. In Minnesota, he defeated Rep. Ron Paul 45-27 percent, as Romney could only manage 17 percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich continues to fall. He performed poorly in Colorado (13 percent) and Minnesota (11 percent) last night, and failed to even qualify for the Missouri primary ballot.

The Missouri vote carried no delegate allocation. This will occur in county caucus meetings beginning March 17. In 2008, the state hosted a winner-take-all primary. The process also continues both in Colorado and Minnesota where delegates are formally apportioned at the district and state conventions later this year.

Looking at the unofficial delegate count after the first seven states to allocate (including Colorado and Minnesota), Romney has 99 delegates, Gingrich 41 (thanks to his South Carolina victory where he gathered 23 of 25 available votes), Santorum 39, and Paul 28. A candidate needs 1,144 delegate votes to secure the nomination, so only 9 percent of the total delegate pool has so far been apportioned. With his strong performance in Missouri, Santorum is in the best position to secure the majority of the state’s 52 delegates when the allocation process begins next month.

Are last night’s results an indication that Santorum can seriously challenge Romney for the nomination? It will still be difficult for him to do so, despite being in reach in the early delegate count. He will likely need to top Romney in Arizona on Feb. 28, because the former Michigan resident will likely win that state on the same day, do well on Super Tuesday (March 6), and hope he can score big later in his home state of Pennsylvania (72 delegates at stake) and conservative Texas (155). He will also have to hold his own in the remaining big northeastern states such as New York and New Jersey.

Scoring victories among some of the 10 Super Tuesday states is a necessity. The downside for Santorum on that day is Romney’s home state of Massachusetts, which is among the voting states, as is Gingrich’s Georgia. And remember, Santorum failed to qualify for the Virginia ballot. So, Ohio, with its 66 delegates becomes critically important for the Santorum cause. He will also need to do well in the Alaska, North Dakota and Idaho caucuses, as well as capturing the Oklahoma (43 delegates) and Tennessee (58) primaries.