Tag Archives: Sen. Elizabeth Warren

Nevada Numbers – Both Presidential and Senate Races Tested

MARCH 3, 2015 — Gravis Marketing conducted a poll of the Nevada electorate (Feb. 21-22; 955 registered Nevada voters; 438 likely Republican Nevada Caucus attenders; 324 likely Democratic Nevada Caucus attenders; 193 likely general election voters) in order to test both party nomination contests, and gauge how Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D) shapes up for re-election.

For Republicans, Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) is again pacing the field, this time with 27 percent of the vote according to the Gravis study. Following in second place, eight percentage points behind, is former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 19 percent.

All other candidates posted in single digits. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was third with eight percent; Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) had the most disappointing performance in recording just three percent; and retired Maryland neurosurgeon Ben Carson was not included on the ballot test questionnaire.
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Walker on Early Roll in Polls;
Clinton Dominates

FEB. 3, 2015 — Selzer & Company, the Des Moines Register’s standard polling firm, just surveyed the Iowa presidential field (Jan. 26-29; 402 Iowa GOP likely Caucus attenders; 401 Iowa Democratic likely Caucus attenders) and the results tell a surprising story. The survey was conducted just before 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney publicly announced his exit.

Selzer took into account, however, that the former Massachusetts governor and two-time national candidate was no certainty to run, hence asked ballot test questions with and without him as a projected participant. Even when included, Romney failed to lead and actually dropped behind two of his prospective opponents.

Irrespective of Romney’s presence, however, it was Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker who placed first in both configurations. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul was second, just a point behind, each time. For the Democrats, not surprisingly, former Secretary of State and First Lady Hillary Clinton held a huge lead, topping 56 percent among those comprising the sampling cell.
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With Romney Now Out, Will Bush Benefit?

It was a surprising Friday. As we are now well aware, Mitt Romney’s conference call with key supporters was not to “fire up the base” for another presidential run but rather to inform his listeners that he will not pursue the White House for a third time. As expected, much speculation is occurring as to how this development affects the remaining GOP presidential aspirants.

Many believe that the greatest beneficiary of Romney’s departure is former Florida governor, Jeb Bush; the impending battle between these two principals was commonly labeled as a fight for the heart of the Republican establishment. But, that may not be so readily apparent. Reports show that Romney, on the night of his announcement, actually met with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and not Bush. Though it is not known what Romney and Christie specifically discussed Friday evening, it is near certain that the conversation was not about helping Bush.

Romney’s decision not to run is likely a positive one for the former Massachusetts governor and Republican presidential nominee, himself. Though leading in virtually every early GOP poll, Romney’s margin was far below what one would expect for a reigning presidential nominee. In most surveys, he never broke even 30 percent, meaning seven out of every 10 Republicans polled were consistently choosing someone other than Romney.
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Even More Presidential Candidates Emerge

Almost everyday now, a new individual is mentioned as someone considering a potential run for president in 2016. The latest to be attracting some attention are two big state Republican governors both named Rick. Florida Gov. Rick Scott and Michigan state chief executive Rick Snyder are reportedly floating national trial balloons, testing whether they might be viable GOP presidential candidates next year.

Though both are clearly considered long shot candidates at best, they do have several key obvious positives. First, they are governors, which has historically been the best office from which to successfully run for the White House. Second, if either were to capture the nomination, their home states should give them a key boost on the general election map, particularly in Gov. Scott’s case because a Republican realistically cannot win a presidential election without carrying Florida. Third, both have a fundraising base that could quickly reach national proportions.

But, both Scott and Snyder also possess clear negatives. Though they won re-election to a second term last month in their respective competitive states, neither did so impressively. Florida being the quintessential swing domain always yields a close race, but Scott’s 48-47 percent victory margin, virtually identical to his 49-48 percent win four years ago over then-Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink (D), should have been stronger against an opponent Continue reading >

“First” Presidential Primary Poll Yields Interesting Numbers

Though election results rarely resemble survey research data that is conducted more than a year in advance, early polling still provides benchmarks from which to begin analyzing a particular future campaign; in this case a presidential contest that promises to be, perhaps, the most wide open, interesting, and exciting political forum of the modern era.

As we stated many times during the immediate past pre-election coverage, 2016 campaign activity begins right after the mid-term voting concludes. Consistent with that axiom, the Purple Insights organization – the survey research arm of the Purple Strategies consulting firm – conducted a “first in the nation” presidential primary poll for Bloomberg Politics and St. Anselm’s College (NH). The survey was commissioned during the Nov. 12-18 period, interviewing 989 New Hampshire general election voters, including 407 previous Republican primary voters and 404 past Democratic primary voters.

Purple Insights tested 18 different political figures, 17 of whom have been linked to the upcoming presidential race. The only person not in the national category is New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R), who will stand for re-election in the next cycle. She scored a strong 47:27 percent favorability ratio, and a 28:42 percent positive to negative score among Democratic primary voters. The latter rating is actually quite Continue reading >