Tag Archives: Sen. Elizabeth Warren

As Joe Goes, So Go the Democratic Presidential Contenders

By Jim Ellis

Former vice president and ex-Delaware senator Joe Biden: is he in or out of the 2020 presidential campaign?

Feb. 28, 2019 — A new national Morning Consult poll (Feb. 18-24; 15,642 registered US voters likely to vote in a Democratic primary via online questionnaire) finds former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders pulling away from the rest of the Democratic presidential field.

Sen. Sanders is clearly getting a boost from his formal announcement. According to the Morning Consult regular tracking, he is up six points from just before he became an official candidate. It remains to be seen if his rise begins a trend or is just a polling blip because of increased media attention.

Overall, the MC data finds Biden’s national lead among the segmented Democratic voters dropping to just two points over Sen. Sanders, 29-27 percent. But, the pair are now well ahead of the remaining contenders. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) drops a point in her own support, meaning she lost a net seven percent to Sanders from the last poll. Her new national total is 10 percent, three points ahead of both Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and former US Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX).

Continue reading

Poll: Harris Underwhelms in CA

By Jim Ellis

Declared presidential candidate, Democrat Sen. Kamala Harris of California.

Feb. 19, 2019 — A new Change Research poll was just released of the California Democratic presidential electorate and should former Vice President Joe Biden enter the race, he apparently would fare quite well in Sen. Kamala Harris’ home state.

According to the survey (Feb. 9-11; 948 likely California Democratic presidential primary voters) Biden and Sen. Harris would actually tie at 26 percent apiece. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-D/VT) closely trails with 20 percent.

Considering the delegate proportionality rules, the two men would score a handsome number of committed delegates in Sen. Harris’ own backyard if this poll happens to correctly predict what could happen a year from now.

California is projected to send 495 delegates to the July 2020 Democratic National Convention, the largest contingent from any state. If Sen. Harris is to become a first-tier presidential candidate, she will have to reap a major delegate bounty in her home domain. Thus, merely breaking even with Mr. Biden would certainly be considered a disappointment in her quest for the nomination.

The rest of the field trails badly. No one, aside from the top three, even breaks into double-digits. In this survey, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) is fourth with eight percent, followed by Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren who posts a paltry seven percent, ahead of Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) with three percent, while former Housing & Urban Development secretary Julian Castro holds a two percent preference.

Continue reading

Biden Remains Ahead of the Pack

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 14, 2019 — A new Morning Consult national survey of Democratic presidential primary voters again finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading an ever-growing pack of hopefuls vying for the opportunity of facing President Trump in the 2020 general election.

The survey (Feb. 4-10: 11,627 registered voters who say they may vote in a Democratic presidential primary or attend a party caucus; 517 “early primary state” voters from Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina), finds the former VP and long-time Delaware senator holding a 29-22-13 percent lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) and California Sen. Kamala Harris.

Sixteen more candidates or potential candidates were included in the poll, but none could crack double-digits. In the second tier, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) pulled eight percent, closely followed by former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) with seven percent, and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) who attracted five percent support. All of the others fell in between three percent and zero, inclusive.

Looking at only the four early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina (derived from an aggregate respondent group of 517 self-identified Democrats in those places), the order of candidates in the top tier doesn’t change, and Biden extends his lead to 33-21-11-10 percent over Sens. Sanders, Harris, and Warren. Sen. Booker gains one point to six percent, while ex-Rep. O’Rourke falls to five percent. No one else exceeds two percent.

Continue reading

The Campaign Begins

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 8, 2019 — President Donald Trump used his State of the Union Address on Tuesday night to informally begin his re-election drive.

While some theorized that the president might decide not to seek a second term as we got closer to the primaries, the text of his speech told us just the opposite. In fact, instead of being a State of the Union Address, his subject matter and delivery made it closer to a campaign announcement speech.

In addition to using the address to frame the beginning of his re-election effort, the president also outlined what will likely become his key strategic tenets. In other words, he showcased the speech to begin painting the picture of his Democratic opponents that he wants the electorate to see.

It was clear from his emphasis points that Trump intends to create a clear contrast between he and the Democrats, and certainly the future party nominee whomever that may be, by attempting to position himself as the center-right candidate and driving his opponents into the far left ideological realm.

He also displayed the key points that will likely serve as the foundation for his campaign offensive: increasing jobs, economic prosperity, and the number of small businesses; re-emphasizing his America First theme with both the country’s allies and adversaries in relation to foreign affairs and trade issues; and, how the Trump Administration has made the world a safer place because of its foreign policy decisions and initiatives.

The president also used the speech as a tool to put the Democrats on the defensive, and even apparently shocked them at least a couple of times if their initial reaction is any indication.

Continue reading

Two New Polls Show Tracking Trends In 2020 Presidential Race

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 6, 2019 — The Emerson College Polling Institute and Monmouth University just released two presidential polls, the former of Iowa voters, the latter, a national study.

The Emerson poll (Jan. 30-Feb. 2; 831 registered Iowa voters, 260 likely Iowa Democratic caucus attenders) finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading Sens. Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Bernie Sanders (I-D/VT), 29-18-15 percent, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) posts 11% support.

The other candidates land in single digits: ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) at six percent; Sens. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) both with four percent; Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) has three percent; while former HUD Secretary Julian Castro posts two percent, and ex-Rep. John Delaney (D-MD) each register one percent support.

The results are consistent with previous polls conducted of the Iowa Caucus sampling universe even though the Democratic sample in this survey is very low.

During the period of Jan. 25-27, Monmouth University tested a national sample of 735 registered US voters from a pool of 805 adults to determine perceptions mostly of the Democratic candidates, but also queried the aggregate respondent universe about President Trump.

Continue reading