Tag Archives: Public Policy Polling

Michigan’s Sen. Stabenow Unfazed

Last week the big news emanating from Michigan was that former Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-MI-2) had changed his mind about entering the Senate race and will challenge Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) next year, after all. Public Policy Polling immediately decided to survey Wolverine State voters to see what effect the Hoekstra candidacy will have on the race.

At least in the preliminary stages, the answer is: very little.

Stabenow has consistently enjoyed double-digit leads against all potential Republican candidates, but none have Hoekstra’s qualifications. According to PPP (July 21-24; 593 registered Michigan voters) Sen. Stabenow enjoys a 50-41 percent lead over the former congressman and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, not quite double-digits, but far beyond the margin of error.

The PPP poll is also reporting that neither candidate has particularly strong approval ratings. The senator scored only a 46:40 percent favorable to unfavorable, weak for an incumbent but much better than the EPIC-MRA poll (July 9-11; 600 registered Michigan voters) where she recorded a poor 38:51 percent rating. Hoekstra’s personal image proved weak on the latest survey, scoring only a 31:30 percent positive to negative response.

The Republicans had hoped to put the Michigan Senate race into serious play after their strong 2010 success in the state, and still might, but their challenge effort is off to a slow start. The GOP will now put all their eggs in Mr. Hoekstra’s basket in hopes that he can quickly position himself into upset range. This race merits a “watch” rating.
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Is the Republican Field Already Narrowing?

Public Policy Polling (July 15-17; 730 US self-identified Republican voters) just released the results from their latest national political poll and though the 730 sample size is exceedingly low for a nationwide survey — thus raising the error factor considerably — the overall conclusions are plausible.

Capturing the sense that Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6) is surging into the top tier of the Republican presidential field of candidates, the PPP actually places her in first position at 21 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is second with 20 percent, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, included for the first time in a major national poll, places a respectable third with 12 percent. Retired businessman Herman Cain is next, attracting 11 percent.

The poll results are particularly good news for Bachmann and Perry. The data provides evidence of Bachmann’s upward mobility, just as political commentators, campaign professionals, and rank and file activists alike had previously professed. But, the question surrounding her fledging effort is: can she sustain this pace and momentum? Now favored to carry the upcoming Iowa Straw Poll event (Aug. 13), which is actually a major fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party since candidates pay thousands of dollars to participate, Bachmann could well be on the way to positioning herself to win the first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucuses come February.

Gov. Perry, scoring in double-digits his first time out of the gate, is impressive and the numbers are a clear signal that he will be a serious candidate should he ultimately decide to run. Perry’s greatest asset is his record as the nation’s senior governor. Leading the rest of America in job creation, Texas continues to defy the poor domestic economic trends. In a campaign year where jobs will be the top issue upon which the general election candidates will run, Perry clearly has established his economic legitimacy. He has few deficiencies with which to contend, thus making him a strong potential opponent for President Obama.

The PPP poll again reveals some weakness for Romney. Commonly viewed as the front-runner in the race, this is the third poll that places him behind Bachmann and the first one to do so nationally. The other two state surveys that produced similar results, both Public Policy Polling studies, were in Iowa and New Mexico. Romney also has another glaring weakness. Regarding the healthcare issue during his tenure as governor, he instituted a quasi government run healthcare system for Massachusetts. According to the PPP study, only 17 percent of the respondents say they would be willing to vote for a candidate who supported a state-run healthcare program. By contrast, 66 percent said they are not willing to do so. Additionally, the fact that he again fails to break 20 percent in a survey continually reveals his low ceiling among the Republican electorate.

The second quarter financial reports for the presidential candidates are now public, and though most of the candidates had previously announced their dollar figures, it is again important to review the financial landscape.

The following link goes to a spreadsheet displaying all of the pertinent numbers: Presidential Financials 2nd Qtr 2011.
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Poll Shows Utah’s Hatch Teetering

Public Policy Polling (July 8-10; 732 registered Utah voters) just confirmed the results of another Beehive State poll conducted last month. Both sets of data show six-term Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) facing serious re-election competition for the first time since originally winning his seat back in 1976. In fact, the new PPP data actually shows Hatch trailing Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT-2) by a single point in a hypothetical general election showdown, 44-45 percent.

It was perceived that the senator’s toughest battle would come in the Republican nominating convention should Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT-3) launch an intra-party challenge against him. Earlier polling predicted that Hatch would cruise to the nomination and re-election if he at least secured second ballot position at the convention. Now, the new polls suggest that every phase of his re-election battle is tight.

Neither Matheson nor Chaffetz has said definitively that they will run for the Senate. Matheson, the lone Democratic federal office holder in this most Republican of states, says he will be on the Utah ballot in 2012, but he is not sure for what office. He could certainly seek re-election, though the GOP map drawers will undoubtedly make his already strongly conservative district even more Republican. He confirms considering running for Senate, while also not ruling out challenging GOP Gov. Gary Herbert. Chaffetz, too, is undecided about whether to run. Unlike Matheson, he likely will receive a safe seat in redistricting, meaning the two-term congressman’s political risk might be greater than his Democratic colleague. A Matheson-Chaffetz race was also tested and the Democrat led that pairing by an even greater 47-42 percent margin. The 2012 Utah Senate race must now be considered officially competitive.
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New Mexico Senate Primary Numbers

Public Policy Polling just released new data (June 23-26; 400 “usual” Republican primary voters; 400 “usual” Democratic voters) regarding the New Mexico Senate race. The firm surveyed both the Democratic and Republican primary elections, each of which is likely to be competitive.

For the Ds, two-term Rep. Martin Heinrich (D-NM-1) begins the Senatorial campaign with a 47-24 percent lead over state Auditor Hector Balderas (D) as the two battle for their party’s nomination. On the Republican side, former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM-1) has a similar 52-24 percent advantage over Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R). Should these numbers hold up for the remainder of the primary cycle Heinrich and Wilson will square off in the general election in what could become a hotly contested campaign that attracts great national attention.

All of the major candidates in the Senatorial race have relatively strong favorability ratings as each contender has higher positive scores than negative. Five-term Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) is retiring, therefore creating the open seat.
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New Mexico Senate Poll Shows a Tight Race

Public Policy Polling conducted a survey of the New Mexico electorate (June 23-26; 732 registered New Mexico voters) regarding the open seat race to replace the retiring Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D). The results show Democrats with a measurable advantage, but in a much tighter contest than recent New Mexico voting history would likely yield.

Turning to the ballot test questions, Rep. Martin Heinrich (D-NM-1), an announced Senatorial candidate, out-duels former 1st district Rep. and Senatorial candidate Heather Wilson (R) by just five percentage points, 47-42 percent. He leads Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) by a similar 45-39 percent. State Auditor Hector Banderas (D) scores in the same neighborhood as Heinrich against the two Republicans.

Interestingly, relating to job approval and personal popularity, the data shows the two Democratic candidate posting an average +5 points in positive territory, which are mediocre scores, while the two Republican contenders are upside down by the same margin.

The eventual Democratic nominee should win this open seat, but Republicans still have the ability of making Land of Enchantment statewide races close. The PPP numbers suggest this race could become highly competitive.
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Rehberg Still Leads in Montana Senate Campaign

Public Policy Polling surveyed the Montana electorate (June 16-19; 819 registered Montana voters) and found that Republican at-large congressman Denny Rehberg is maintaining the slight two-point lead over first-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) that he forged in November. The current data shows Rehberg topping Tester 47-45 percent. In the November PPP survey, the representative led by an almost identical 48-46 percent. The poll certainly gives credence to the analysis that this race will be in toss-up mode all the way to Election Day. The fact that the two polls, taken seven months apart, produced identical results is rather extraordinary.

Though Montana tends to be a reliable Republican state in presidential elections, in other statewide campaigns it becomes quite marginal. Currently, the Democrats have the governor’s office and both Senate seats. Normally, the parties split the Senate positions and rotate the governor’s office. It is therefore no surprise that the Tester-Rehberg campaign is already a nip-and-tuck affair. In fact, even the candidates’ financial figures are close. According to the March 31st public disclosure report, Sen. Tester has attracted $1.16 million dollars with Rehberg right behind at $1.05 million.
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Democrats Convert Seat in New York’s 26th

Democratic/Working Families Party nominee Kathy Hochul, who began as little more than a sacrificial lamb in what should be a relatively safe Republican district, won the special election last night to succeed former Rep. Christopher Lee (R). Mr. Lee resigned the seat earlier in the year to avoid publicizing an impending personal scandal. Ms. Hochul, the Erie County clerk, defeated state Assemblywoman Jane Corwin who held the Republican, Conservative and Independence Party ballot lines, along with Independent Jack Davis. Hochul’s margin was 47-43-9% against Corwin and Davis, respectively.

Turnout appeared to be low, especially in comparison to the previous upstate specials that broke 35 percent in voter participation. Approximately 115,000 people cast ballots, not counting what are likely several thousand yet-to-be-tabulated absentee votes. The turnout rate was hovering around 28 percent.

The two most recent pollsters called the race accurately. The closing surveys, one from Siena College and the other Public Policy Polling, showed Hochul holding four- and six-point leads, respectively, during the weekend directly preceding the election. The final margin, as revealed above, was four points.

The result allows the Democrats to extend their strong performances in special elections and adds to the commensurate Republican woes, particularly in multi-candidate upstate New York contests. The Hochul victory represents the third such favorable Democratic result in the last four New York special elections, even though the Republicans were favored at the beginning of each race.

The focal point of the campaign became Independent Jack Davis who labeled himself with the word “Tea.” New York election law allows qualifying Independents to describe themselves in a similar manner to party designation labels for the major candidates. Davis, however, was not a Tea Party member. He previously ran for Congress three times as a liberal Democrat. The Davis candidacy sparked confusion and controversy, thus causing Republican nominee Corwin to make unforced errors that ultimately cost her the seat. At one point, Davis was polling within just a few points of Hochul and Corwin, topping out at 23 percent. Then, both the Democrats and Republicans unloaded on Davis, ultimately costing him two-thirds of his potential support.

Aligned with the Conservative and Independence parties in a seat drawn for the GOP, this special election should have gone the Republicans’ way. Again, as had been the case in what proved to be a disastrous 23rd district contest (Rep. Bill Owens) two different times for Republicans, a minor party candidate cut against the GOP nominee and cost them the seat.

Total spending among the contenders broke $7 million, but the three candidates themselves contributed over $5 million of that total. Davis is a multi-millionaire who has traditionally self-funded his campaigns. He spent more than $2.6 million for this special election. Corwin dumped a similar amount into her campaign.

Outside entity spending was interesting. According to the latest OpenSecrets.org analysis, $1.99 million, in addition to the candidates’ cumulative total, was injected by independent organizations. A great deal of those expenditures, better than $755,000 worth, were targeted in opposition to Davis. More than $541,000 went against Hochul, and an additional $471,000 targeted Corwin. Both major party candidates also received positive independent expenditures, but those totaled less than $150,000 apiece.

The count in the House is now 241 Republicans and 193 Democrats with one vacancy. The open California 36th district will be filled on July 12th. Democrat Janice Hahn is a heavy favorite in that campaign. The New York delegation will now head into redistricting, where the state loses two seats in reapportionment, with 22 Democrats and seven Republicans.

Democrats will attempt to frame this election as a referendum on Medicare, as they continually attacked Corwin for saying she would support the controversial Ryan budget plan. The Republican never effectively countered the attack. The bigger issue, however, was the repeated Corwin mistakes that once again allowed a New York Republican seat to slip through the GOP’s fingers. In a special election, when turnout is always down and sometimes not reflective of a district’s voting patterns, the candidate running the more competent campaign generally wins. Clearly, Ms. Hochul was the superior campaigner in NY-26 during this battle.
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