Tag Archives: New York

A Republican Double-Header Sweep

Thirteen proved to be a lucky number for Republicans, as the party’s candidates won two special congressional elections last night, Sept. 13.

The upset of the political season went to GOP contender Bob Turner, who defeated Democratic state Assemblyman David Weprin, thus converting the vacated Anthony Weiner congressional district to the Republicans. Prior to Weiner’s election to Congress, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) held the 9th district for nine terms before being elected statewide.

Mr. Turner, a retired broadcasting executive, scored a 54-46 percent win in a district where Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 57-18 percent count. Only 22 percent of the registered voters participated in the special election, a key reason why the GOP nominee was able to win despite having such a small political base. He scored 48 percent of the vote in the Queens borough, which is NY-9’s population anchor. He won the race, however, in Brooklyn where he attracted an astonishing 69 percent of the vote.

In the closing days of the campaign four pollsters, McLaughlin Associates, Magellan Strategies, Siena College and Public Policy Polling, all produced surveys projecting Turner to be in strong position and headed to victory. Last night’s results certainly proved the pollsters correct. On a side note, the NY election result is a bad sign for President Obama, as his favorability ratings in this heavily Democratic district are poor. Carrying the seat over John McCain with 55 percent of the vote in 2008, the PPP poll showed the President actually trailing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (42-46 percent) and ahead of Texas Gov. Rick Perry by just one percentage point (44-43 percent) in hypothetical presidential match-ups. Obama scores poorly on his handling of the economy and on issues concerning US policy in the Middle East, greatly influenced by the 36 percent of the district’s residents who are members of the Jewish faith.

Turning to the west, former state legislator and Nevada Republican Party chairman Mark Amodei easily won the congressional district seat that was vacated when then-Rep. Dean Heller (R-NV-2) was appointed to the US Senate. Amodei won easily, scoring a 58-37 percent margin of victory over Democratic state Treasurer Kate Marshall. Rep-elect Amodei now becomes an incumbent in a district that touches all 17 of Nevada’s counties, but will likely only occupy the northern half of the state post-redistricting. His toughest electoral challenge may still lie ahead, however. It is likely that 2010 Republican Senatorial nominee Sharron Angle will challenge the new congressman in a Reno-Carson City anchored district during the regular 2011 election cycle. This will be a competitive race despite Mr. Amodei’s short-term incumbency.

Turnout for the Nevada election was much greater than the voter participation level in New York. Approximately 140,000 voters went to the polls to choose a replacement for Mr. Heller, about 35 percent of those registered, slightly higher than the average special congressional election draws.

The Turner victory restores the New York delegation to 21D-8R, the ratio found on election night 2010. Republicans lost the 26th District in a special election earlier in the year, so the two parties have now traded conversion districts.

The current House party division count now stands at 242 Republicans; 192 Democrats; and one vacancy (ex-Rep. David Wu, D-OR-1). The final vacant seat will be filled in a Jan. 31 special election.

GOP Poised for Special Election Sweep

The final polls for the two special elections that were held today, NV-2 (Mark Amodei, R) vs. Kate Marshall, D) and NY-9 (Bob Turner, R vs. David Weprin, D), indicate that Republicans will score victories in both. As we covered in our update yesterday, Mr. Turner appeared on the verge of a major upset win in the heavily Democratic New York City seat, vacant due to former Rep. Anthony Weiner’s (D) resignation. At the time of this post, the Associated Press has projected Turner to be the winner. The current lead is six points.

The weekend Public Policy Polling survey basically confirms the latest Siena College poll that gave Turner a six-point lead. According to the PPP data (Sept. 8-11; 664 likely NY-9 special election voters via automated telephone calls), the Republican former broadcasting executive has a 47-41 percent lead over the Democratic state assemblyman. Like the Siena College survey that showed Turner receiving a large cross-over vote from Democrats, PPP detects the same pattern. They post him attracting 29 percent of Democratic votes. Turner is crushing Weprin among Independents. Within this polling sample subset, the GOP nominee has a 58-26 percent edge. President Obama, in a district that he carried 55 percent in 2008, has a poor 31:56 percent job approval rating, which is proving to be a drag on Weprin’s candidacy.

The last Nevada survey, also from PPP (Sept. 9-11; 629 likely NV-2 special election voters via automated telephone calls) gave Republican Amodei, a former state legislator and Nevada Republican Party chairman, a whopping 50-37 percent lead over Democrat Marshall, the state Treasurer. An even more solid indicator is the early voting report. So far, of the early votes already cast, 53 percent come from Republicans while only 34 percent originate from registered Democrats. The polls indicating a Republican sweep appear to have been borne out.

Incumbents Facing Challenges in 2012 – Part II

In concluding our two-part series about House members who will face serious 2012 re-election challenges, below we list 22 more competitive incumbents from states where redistricting has been completed or which is pending but clear.

IN-8 – Larry Bucshon (R) – In attempting to gain a 7R-2D advantage for the delegation, the 8th district of freshman Rep. Bucshon was weakened, from the Republican perspective. Expect competition here, but the new incumbent remains the favorite.

IA-3 – Leonard Boswell (D) / Tom Latham (R) – In the only intra-party pairing of the new election cycle so far, veteran Reps. Boswell and Latham square-off in a marginal district. Mr. Boswell represents more of the new district, but the voting patterns tilt a touch toward Mr. Latham. This race begins as a pure toss-up.

IA-4 – Steve King (R) – The new western-based 4th district is mostly comprised of Rep. King’s current 5th district and part of Mr. Latham’s old 4th. Christie Vilsack (D), wife of former Gov. Tom Vilsack who serves as President Obama’s Agriculture Secretary, already has announced her intention to challenge Rep. King. This will be a competitive race because of Vilsack’s fundraising capability. However, King begins with the decided advantage.

LA-3 – Jeff Landry (R) / Charles Boustany (R) – Louisiana’s loss of a congressional seat pits freshman Rep. Jeff Landry against veteran Charles Boustany in a Republican primary battle. The winner retains the seat. Boustany is the early favorite.

MI-9 – Sander Levin (D) / Gary Peters (D) – Michigan’s loss of a district pairs 15-term Rep. Levin against two-term Rep. Peters. Levin, who will be 80 at the time of the next election, is a retirement possibility. Peters has also tested the waters to run for Oakland County Executive. The winner of this primary battle, should it occur, holds the seat.

MO-2 – Russ Carnahan (D) – The loss of a seat in Missouri has forced Rep. Carnahan either to challenge Rep. Lacy Clay in the 1st district Democratic primary or try to survive in the neighboring Republican 2nd district seat, in open status because Rep. Todd Akin is running for the Senate. Carnahan is competitive here, but will be the underdog.

NH-2 – Charlie Bass (R) – The 2nd district is now more like Vermont than New Hampshire in terms of voting patterns. This means the seat is decidedly Democratic. Rep. Bass regained the position he lost in 2006, but by just one percentage point over Democratic lobbyist Anne McLane Kuster. Redistricting must move only 254 people between the two districts, so Bass’s hopes for a more Republican seat are gone. This is a prime Democratic conversion opportunity.

NY-25 – Ann Marie Buerkle (R) – Though redistricting won’t be completed well into next year, we can count on a competitive race in this Syracuse-based district. Chances are the city will remain intact, meaning it will anchor a seat in the Upstate region. Former Rep. Dan Maffei (D), the man Ms. Buerkle unseated in 2010, has already announced his intention to run again next year.

NC-3 – Rep. Walter Jones (R) – Though Rep. Jones has a safe Republican seat in which to run for re-election, the district has vast new territory for him. Already, retired New Bern Police Chief Frank Palumbo (R) has announced a GOP primary challenge to Mr. Jones. Others could follow suit.

NC-4 – David Price (D) / Brad Miller (D) – The Republican redistricting plan placed two Democratic incumbents in a seat that now stretches from Raleigh to Fayetteville. This will be a difficult primary as each man represents about one-third of this new district. The winner retains the seat for the Democrats.

NC-7 – Mike McIntyre (D) – Redistricting also threw Rep. McIntyre into a difficult district. This will be a top Republican conversion target. Both 2010 GOP nominee Ilario Pantano and state Sen. David Rouzer (R) have announced their intentions to run.

NC-8 – Larry Kissell (D) – Rep. Kissell loses a great number of Democratic votes in this new redistricting plan, making him a tempting GOP target. Three local officials, including one who isn’t from the district, have announced for the seat. Expect more candidates to soon enter the fray.

NC-11 – Heath Shuler (D) – Rep. Shuler may have received the most difficult draw of all, as he now represents the most Republican congressional district in North Carolina. Local District Attorney Jeff Hunt and several local officials already are officially running.

OR-4 – Peter DeFazio (D) – The seat became a touch more Republican in redistricting and Rep. DeFazio raised eyebrows with his comment earlier this week that he is thinking about retirement. Could be competitive in an open situation. Republican Art Robinson, who received 44% of the vote against DeFazio in 2010, is running again.

RI-1 – David Cicilline (D) – Negative stories about Rep. Cicilline’s financial management of Providence when he was mayor has made the freshman congressman potentially vulnerable. Two strong Republican candidates, including 2010 nominee John Loughlin and former state police chief Brendan Doherty, are running. Chances appear high that Cicilline could draw Democratic primary opposition, too.

TN-3 – Charles Fleischmann (R) – Though redistricting is not yet finalized in Tennessee, freshman Rep. Fleischmann in the Chattanooga-based seat will likely face primary opposition. Robin Smith, the local county Republican Party chair who lost to Fleischmann by less than 1,500 votes in 2010, is considering a re-match.

TN-4 – Scott DesJarlais (R) – Mr. DesJarlais, who unseated then-Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) by more than 30,000 votes last November, could see a GOP primary challenge from state Sen. Bill Ketron (R). Sen. Ketron is on the legislative committee in charge of redistricting, which presumably allows him to draw the 4th district to his liking.

TN-8 – Stephen Fincher (R) – Though redistricting is not completed, the 8th district, by virtue of its geographic location in the northwest corner of the state, will likely be competitive in 2012. Mr. Fincher is the first modern-day Republican congressman from this region.

TX-35 – Lloyd Doggett (D) – If the Texas map survives its legal challenges, Rep. Doggett will face a stiff Democratic primary battle in the new 35th District that includes parts of Austin and San Antonio. Already, state Rep. Juan Castro (D), twin brother to San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro (D), has announced he will challenge Doggett.

UT-2 – Jim Matheson (D) – Redistricting will likely put Rep. Matheson in another strongly Republican seat. He already represents the most Republican district held by a Democratic member. Matheson is also a potential statewide candidate. The Republicans will win the seat if he vacates.

WV-1 – David McKinley (R) – Redistricting kept the 1st district largely intact, which is a seat Mr. McKinley can hold, despite it being in Democratic hands for generations before 2010. Ex-Rep. Alan Mollohan, who was defeated in the Democratic primary after 14 terms in office, is a possible candidate in 2012. The Democrats will field a strong challenger here, and this race will be competitive.

WI-7 – Sean Duffy (R) – Mr. Duffy won a seat that was in former Rep. David Obey’s (D) hands for more than 40 years. The district gained Republicans in the re-draw, but Rep. Duffy can expect a stiff re-election challenge from a strong Democrat.

In these two reports (go to our Part I report) we already have isolated 44 incumbents who will face a competitive re-election challenge in either the primary or the general election. Keep in mind that no less than 13 major states still have not completed their redistricting, including Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Add in at least 26 more open seats and it is conceivable that as many as 90-100 House seats could be contested as the 2012 election hits its stride.
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Gov. Christie Rumors Gain Momentum

Despite repeatedly denying that he will run for President during this election cycle, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) is again the subject of intense speculation that it is imminent that he will throw his hat into the ring. Interestingly, this time the rumors are flying from both the left and the right. Yesterday on his national radio program, conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh said sources were telling him that Christie is making moves to enter the race. Back in Trenton, New Jersey’s capital city, state Senate President Steve Sweeney (D) said that the governor’s recent budgetary actions suggest that he is running for President.

If Gov. Christie entered the race, it would add yet another surprising twist to an already unpredictable presidential election cycle. With his strength in the Northeast, a Christie candidacy would be most detrimental to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who must capitalize on his strength in the north and east in order to neutralize what appear to be sure losses in the south. Since New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut are all winner-take-all Republican primary states, and represent a grand total of 173 delegates, a Christie sweep of his home turf would immediately make him a formidable force.

If Christie, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and ex-VP nominee Sarah Palin all were to run for President, in addition to Romney, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6), the race would be thrown into absolute chaos. Moves by any non-candidate entering the race will have to occur within the next month if any of them are to have a realistic chance of winning.
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Replacing Weiner: New York’s First 9th CD Poll

Siena College just released a public poll pertaining to the special congressional election scheduled for Sept. 13 in New York’s 9th congressional district. The survey (Siena Research Institute; Aug. 3-8; 501 likely NY-9 special election voters) reveals state Assemblyman David Weprin (D) to have just a six-point lead over Republican Bob Turner (48-42 percent) in the overwhelmingly Democratic district. The resignation of scandal-tainted Anthony Weiner (D) led to calling a special election to fill the remainder of the current term.

This is clearly a liberal district. By a 65-33 percent margin, the respondents favor raising taxes on individuals who earn more than $250,000 per year. An even greater majority, 72-24 percent oppose any cuts to major government entitlement programs. Interestingly, though, the sample favors repealing the Obama healthcare law 47-44 percent. Additionally, the poll detects a tie between Weprin and Turner among male voters. Females favor the Democrat by an 11-point margin.

In terms of fervency of support, a critical factor in low turnout special elections, Republican Turner scores better. More than 60 percent of his supporters say they will not change their minds; only 47 percent of Weprin voters say the same about their candidate. The district splits definitively over candidate preference in relation to geography. Queens voters, the predominant borough in NY-9, favor Weprin by 10 points. Brooklyn respondents choose Turner by six.

It looks like another New York special congressional election could be headed to a surprising conclusion. Expect more very soon.
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For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com.