Tag Archives: Mitt Romney

Newt Comes All the Way Back

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has soared to first place in two just-released national political polls, cementing his remarkable comeback into the top tier of Republican presidential candidates.

According to both the Opinion Research Council for CNN (Nov. 18-20; 1,019 adults; 402 self-identified Republicans) and Gallup (Nov. 13-17; 1,062 self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents), Gingrich now leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by slim margins. ORC posts Gingrich to a 24 percent stake over second-place Romney, who is at 20 percent. Retired business executive Herman Cain is third with 17 percent. Then comes Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 11 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14) trails with 9 percent support.

The Gallup data projects an even tighter race. There, Mr. Gingrich squeezes out a 22 percent share over Romney, who is at 21 percent; Cain has 16 percent, Paul 9 percent, and Perry 8 percent.

Once again we see a familiar pattern in the polling. Yet another candidate has now claimed the top spot in a national poll – Romney, Perry, and Cain have all been first in multiple surveys – and Romney continues to flat-line in the low 20s. This race is as volatile as any presidential campaign in recent history. With actual voting beginning just six weeks from today in Iowa, the campaign will soon start to peak. But as we approach Thanksgiving, the 2012 Republican nomination remains in free-for-all status.

Newt Romps in Iowa Poll

Rasmussen Reports just released the results of their new Iowa poll (Nov. 15; 700 likely Iowa Republican caucus attenders), and it shows former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to be holding a commanding lead over the rest of the field. Gingrich posted 32 percent, followed by Mitt Romney with 19 percent, and then Herman Cain, who has dropped to 13 percent.

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14), who has recently been on the upswing in Iowa, placed fourth in this survey with 10 percent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who badly needs a strong performance in the Hawkeye State caucuses, and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6), winner of the Iowa Straw Poll event in August, are tied with just 6 percent apiece.

Mr. Gingrich continues to show strength in the latest polls, rebounding from his disastrous start that saw his support dwindle to just 3 percent nationally in some surveys, but his resurgence has not been as great as in this new Rasmussen poll. It is doubtful, however, that the former House Speaker has the campaign apparatus in place to deliver thousands of caucus voters to precinct meetings all throughout Iowa on Jan. 3. In low-turnout political events where people must attend an actual meeting in order to cast their votes for president, having a well-oiled organizational turnout operation is essential regardless of poll standing.

Poll: Gingrich Leads in California …

… Maybe.

Public Policy Polling conducted a survey of Republican primary voters in California – the country’s most delegate-rich state – during the Nov. 10-13 period, and it shows that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has opened up an 11-point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (33-22 percent).

There are at least two important factors to consider here, however. First, the sample size for a Republican-registered voter electorate that exceeds 5.3 million people is only 316 respondents, way too small to accurately forecast macro GOP voting preferences. Second, California’s primary system, like that of Florida and several other states, is winner-take-all by congressional district. While placing first in the statewide popular vote count is worth 10 delegates, each of the 53 congressional districts delivers three apiece. Therefore, a mere statewide popular vote poll does not accurately forecast candidate strength under this particular voting format.

There is no question that Newt Gingrich’s candidacy is ascending. Should the nomination campaign progress through the early states with no apparent winner, then California, with its full complement of 172 delegates, could become a deciding state. The Gingrich campaign will have to focus on more traditional organizational activities if they are to take advantage of their candidate’s current wave of support; something that right now, they are incapable of doing.

20-19-18-17 Percent

Selzer & Company, the polling firm that conducts the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register, was in the field during the November 10-12 period, this time for the Bloomberg News Service, asking some unusual political questions of 2,677 adults. Within this large group, they found a subset of 503 individuals who said they were planning to participate in the Republican Caucus meetings Jan. 3.

Among the group of presidential candidates, retired business executive Herman Cain was the choice of 20 percent of the responders; Texas Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14) was next with 19 percent; Mitt Romney scored 18 percent; and ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich registered 17 percent. This suggests that, for this first delegate selection vote that will likely set the tone for the rest of the nomination season, the race is virtually a four-way tie.

The Iowa Caucus is becoming more important than even the most recent past years. The eventual Hawkeye State winner has the very real potential of becoming Mr. Romney’s chief rival. The key to beating the former Massachusetts governor is to isolate him in a one-on-one campaign, and become identified as the more conservative candidate. On the other hand, Romney wins in a crowded field, where his consistent poll standing in the low to mid-twenties might be enough to claim victory if the others rather evenly split the large number of outstanding votes.
Since he enjoys big leads in the New Hampshire primary polls, a victory in Iowa could provide Mr. Romney with enough momentum to wrap up the nomination early. No non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate has ever won both the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary. Sweeping the two could make Romney unstoppable.

On another poll question, 29 percent of those sampled reported that their minds about who to support are set. A full 60 percent said they could still change their opinion, yet another piece of supporting evidence attesting to the volatility of this Republican nomination campaign.

In testing the tax reform ideas of the major candidates, 24% said they would favor a platform that described Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan (9 percent corporate and 9 percent personal income tax rates, and a 9 percent national sales tax). This was trumped by an approach that would create three individual personal income tax rates at 23, 14 and 8%, however. Thirty-two percent said such an option would be their top tax reform choice. Gov. Rick Perry’s proposed 20% flat tax rate was named by 14% of the Republican sample.

As the Iowa campaign begins to heat up, the race is getting closer. Much more will follow before the voters make a final determination right after the first of the year.

The Re-Birth of Newt Gingrich

A series of new polls confirm what earlier data was beginning to show, that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is back in the thick of the Republican presidential race and is now actually vying for first place. The new Public Policy Polling survey (Nov. 10-13; 576 US Republican primary voters) posts Gingrich to a 28-25-18 percent lead over retired business executive Herman Cain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, respectively. Perhaps more astonishing, however, is the former Speaker’s favorability index according to the PPP poll. Always plagued with high negatives due to many controversies while he was in and out of Congress, Gingrich’s positive to negative ratio among the tested Republicans registers a very high 68:23 percent.

The Opinion Research Council, for CNN, also detects a major rise for Gingrich, though not as high as PPP’s conclusion. In their new larger sample survey, but conducted over a weekend (Nov. 11-13; 925 likely Republican primary voters), it’s Romney with the lead at 24 percent, followed closely by Gingrich’s 22 percent. In this poll, Mr. Cain falls all the way to 14 percent. The Polling Company was also in the field during the Nov. 11-13 period, but just in the state of Iowa, previewing the first-in-the-nation Caucus vote scheduled for Jan. 3. Among the 501 GOP caucus attenders tested, a tight race is forecast. Here, Herman Cain has a 20-19 percent lead over Gingrich. Mr. Romney trails at 14 percent.

Though the Gingrich rebound is truly extraordinary, considering he was down as low as 3 percent during the summer, it causes one to speculate about just how long the resurgence will last. Once the attacks start coming his way, will the former Speaker’s revival continue? It won’t take long to find out.