Tag Archives: Keith Rothfus

In Today’s PA Primary, Two Incumbents Could Lose

Today’s Pennsylvania primary features two hotly contested Democratic congressional primaries, one of which is sure to cost an incumbent House member his job. In the new 12th District, an incumbent pairing occurs because the state loses a seat in reapportionment. The race features Democratic Reps. Jason Altmire (PA-4) and Mark Critz (PA-12).

The new 12th favors Altmire in terms of people currently represented, 64.3 percent to 28.9 percent for Critz. The campaign has been highly competitive with Altmire trying to appeal to the more fiscally conservative western Pennsylvania primary voter and Critz running a traditional Democratic race that highlights strong support from organized labor and even an endorsement from former President Bill Clinton. Polling favored Altmire early, but recent data suggests his advantage has substantially lessened. Watch for a close contest. The winner will face 2010 GOP congressional nominee Keith Rothfus who held Altmire to a tight 51-49 percent win two years ago. Expect a competitive general election in a district that gave President Obama only 45 percent.

Across the state in the new 17th District that stretches all the way from the Harrisburg suburbs to Scranton, 10-term Rep. Tim Holden (D) is being seriously challenged by attorney Matt Cartwright (D). The latter enjoys strong support from national liberal organizations and is spending over $700,000 on the primary race, including $390,000 he self-contributed or loaned.

The race plays as virtually an open seat contest because Holden currently only represents 21 percent of the new 17th. The strong Democratic nature of the new district makes the congressman vulnerable because of some previous conservative votes he cast while representing a current district that should be electing a Republican. This campaign is a potential upset. Cartwright released an internal poll showing him to be leading, and Holden’s negative campaign ads impugning the challenger suggests that such a result could be accurate.

Tonight will be an interesting one in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania Congressional Candidates Underwhelming

The Pennsylvania candidate filing deadline closed this week (Feb. 14), and the word to describe the new crop of congressional candidates may just be “underwhelming.” It appears that both parties have left opportunities to capture districts on the table.

Surprisingly, just one state legislator throughout the entire Keystone State is running for congress: York County Rep. Scott Perry (R) has declared for the lone open seat, that of retiring Rep. Todd Platts in the 4th CD. This, in a state featuring four freshmen Republicans (Reps. Mike Kelly, PA-3; Pat Meehan, PA-7; Tom Marino, PA-10; and Lou Barletta, PA-11), one Democrat member serving slightly more than a term (Rep. Mark Critz, PA-12) and a Republican who had previously been defeated only to rebound in 2010 (Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, PA-8).

No particularly strong Republican challenger stepped forward in the Senate race, where first-term Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr. is seeking re-election. After the last election, with a victory in the governor’s race, the addition of five congressional seats, and converting the state House to majority status, the Republicans had high hopes of bringing down Casey. However, with little in the way of political fire power for the 2012 Senate race, Pennsylvania must go down as the Republicans’ biggest national recruiting disappointment.

But it is the Democrats who appear to have failed at the candidate recruiting game for House races. Against Rep. Mike Kelly, who defeated freshman Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper 56-44 percent less than two years ago, only a college professor, an attorney and a defeated candidate are coming forward to run. That’s not to say one of these men couldn’t transform themselves into a strong contender, but the first impression suggests that Kelly is in the driver’s seat.

A bright spot for the Republicans is Lou Barletta, who knocked off veteran Rep. Paul Kanjorski by a full 10 points in a district where the President notched 57.5% two years earlier; Barletta now sees his seat improve tremendously. Under the new PA-11 lines, Mr. Obama would have scored only 47.7 percent. Two Democrats, a pharmacy wholesale store owner, and a defeated state representative candidate are the only ones to file against the new congressman and former Hazelton mayor.

But District 12 is a Republican recruiting disappointment. With Pennsylvania losing a seat in reapportionment, the GOP legislature combined Democratic incumbents Jason Altmire and Mark Critz into a new 12th District that a Republican could win (Obama: 45.2 percent). After recruitment overtures were turned down by state House Majority Leader Mike Turzai, and a local county official, the Republicans will have to settle for 2010 nominee, Keith Rothfus, to go against Altmire. Rothfus only lost 49-51 percent in the last go-around, but his campaign was less than stellar. We’ll see if he steps it up this time around.

Finally, though Rep. Charlie Dent’s Allentown-Bethlehem 15th District improves 3.5 points in the Republicans’ favor, the President still gained an outright majority here, registering 52.8 percent. Dent racked up his largest career re-election percentage in 2010 (53-39 percent) against strong competition, John Callahan, the mayor of Bethlehem. This largely explains why the Democrats are fielding only the Lehigh County Democratic chairman and a former congressional aide.

For a place with so many marginal seats, and one that will be a key presidential battleground state, the congressional elections now appear much tamer than originally anticipated. In the current Pennsylvania political world, this ultimately means good news for the Republicans.