Tag Archives: George W. Bush

Republicans Nominate Corwin in NY-26

The local Republican chairmen from the seven upstate New York counties comprising the 26th congressional district, as expected, officially chose Assemblywoman Jane Corwin to be their nominee for the upcoming special election that Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) eventually will call. The seat is vacant due to the scandal-tainted resignation of former Rep. Christopher Lee (R). Democrats have yet to name their consensus candidate.

Under New York election law, the governor has rather wide latitude to schedule special elections, but the vote must occur between 30 and 40 days once the call is made. The time lapse between resignation and scheduling allows the parties to choose their nominees via party caucus rather than a primary vote. Because of this situation only the seven county chairman from each party have any say in the nomination process for this particular election.

Upstate New York is no stranger to recent special congressional elections. Since the 2008 general election, two specials have been held and a third was made concurrent with the regular 2010 election. In early 2009, Democrat Scott Murphy won a 50.1-49.6% victory over Republican Jim Tedisco in the 20th district. Kirsten Gillibrand had vacated the seat to accept an appointment to the U.S. Senate. Murphy then went on to lose the 2010 general election to current Rep. Chris Gibson (R-NY-20) by a rather large 53-44% count.

In late 2009, Democrat Bill Owens, in a race that attracted a great deal of national attention, upset Conservative Doug Hoffman after GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava dropped out of the special race the weekend before the final vote and endorsed her major party opponent. Hoffman, running again on the Conservative Party line in the regular election, siphoned away enough votes to allow Owens to slip past Republican Matt Doheny to win a full term in NY-23. The seat was originally vacated because President Obama appointed GOP Rep. John McHugh as Army Secretary. When Rep. Eric Massa (D-NY-29) resigned in scandal, then-Gov. David Paterson simply refused to hold the special election early because it was clear his party was going to lose the seat. Last November, Corning Mayor Tom Reed easily converted the seat for the GOP.

Now, with Rep. Lee abruptly resigning due to a new scandal, yet another special election will be conducted. The seat should remain safely in Republican hands since the 26th district is one of the few New York congressional districts with a solid GOP history. John McCain defeated Pres. Obama here 52-46%, making the 26th only the fourth of 29 NY seats to so choose the Republican. Former Pres. George W. Bush racked up 55-43% and 51-44% margins here in 2004 and 2000 respectively. Ex-Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) had a close 52-48% call in 2006, but the seat has never fallen to the Democrats. Rep. Lee won 46-34% in 2008, and then posted a huge 68-24% landslide this past November.

With numbers like that, Assemblywoman Corwin should normally be regarded as the big favorite in a special election, but such may not be the case. Once again, a minor party candidate could conceivably tip the balance of power to the eventual Democratic nominee if enough conservative voters fail to support Corwin.

The chances of this happening are less than in the NY-23 melee of last year. Corwin claims the New York State Conservative Party has rated her the second-most conservative member in the Assembly, and she has won the party line in both of her legislative elections. Therefore, it is unlikely that the NYCP will abandon her now, which is the key to the Republicans winning. Under New York election law, candidates can gain votes from multiple party ballot lines.

Though certain Tea Party groups expressed displeasure with the Corwin selection, it will be difficult for them to qualify a candidate for the special election ballot because none of the Tea Party organizations are officially recognized New York political parties. Since the Green Party gubernatorial candidate did attract more than 50,000 votes in the last general election, however, they will qualify for an official ballot line now and in 2012. This could cause trouble for some future Democratic nominees if they are not sufficiently liberal on environmental issues.

Once the Democrats have a nominee, Gov. Cuomo will call the election and Ms. Corwin will likely win. At that point, she will immediately be forced to worry about redistricting, as the state loses two seats in apportionment and it is unclear which four of the existing 29 members will be paired against each other.

Our rating of the early NY-26 special election is “Likely Republican.”
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California Candidates Already Vying to Replace Harman

The new House of Representatives is about to have its first vacancy as Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA-36) will soon resign her seat in Congress to become the director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, succeeding former House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Lee Hamilton (D-IN-9). Harman originally was elected to Congress in 1992 and left six years later, relinquishing her seat to mount an unsuccessful campaign for governor of California. She returned to the House in 2000, defeating then-Rep. Steve Kuykendall (R), and was easily re-elected another five times.

Already Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn (D) is saying she will run in the special election. Secretary of State Debra Bowen (D), who was a state legislator from this part of California before winning her current post in 2006, is also reported to have interest in the off-year congressional race.

The 36th district is heavily Democratic and fully contained within Los Angeles County. The communities of Torrance, Redondo Beach and Manhattan Beach together provide the population anchor for the seat. Pres. Obama scored 64% of the vote here in 2008. Former Pres. George W. Bush could do no better than 40 and 39% in his two elections, 2004 and 2000, in respective chronological order.

The eventual CA-36 special election will also be the first such campaign under California’s new primary law. As adopted by the voters in 2010, if no one receives 50% plus one vote, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, will qualify for the general election. Gov. Jerry Brown (D) must call the special election between 112 and 126 days from the date of vacancy.
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Obama’s Approval Ratings Give No Clue to Re-Election

The Gallup Organization released its presidential job approval ratings for late January, and then compared Barack Obama’s current scores to previous presidents at a commensurate time during their respective tenures in office. Eight former presidents were included on the comparison list, all of Mr. Obama’s modern-day predecessors with the exceptions of Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford. Neither of these men were elected to their first, or only (in the case of Ford), presidential term, hence they were purposely omitted. Vice Pres. Johnson assumed office after John F. Kennedy’s assassination and Vice Pres. Ford succeeded Richard Nixon upon his resignation.

Testing the elected presidents’ job approval ratings in January of their third year reveals no re-election prediction pattern. The chief executive with the best job approval score, George H. W. Bush at 75% in 1991, ironically went on to lose re-election less than two years later. The one with the lowest rating, Ronald Reagan at 36% in the beginning of 1983, would later win a 49-state landslide victory and enjoy historical ratings equal to the best American presidents. Kennedy, though his tragic murder prevented him from seeking re-election, was second highest at 74%. Dwight Eisenhower, who did win a comfortable re-election in 1956, posted a 70% positive score in the first month of 1955.

Since the 2010 election, President Obama’s approval ratings have increased slightly. According to the January Gallup data, he now stands at 49% job approval, with 42% disapproving. These numbers rank him sixth of the nine president’s tested. He is in the same category as Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, who both registered 47% in early 1995 and 1979, respectively. Clinton, of course, went on to win re-election, though without the benefit of gaining majority voter support, and Carter went down to one of the biggest landslide defeats in history.

The remaining two presidents on the list, George W. Bush, at 60% positive in January of 2003, and Richard Nixon, who posted 56% in early 1971, both were re-elected to a second term. Bush won a close re-election and served the entire term. Nixon won a landslide victory, but was forced to resign from office in disgrace in 1974.

Thus, the historical job approval ratings give us little in the way of predicting how Mr. Obama will fare in the 2012 presidential election. From a partisan standpoint, the president’s approval ratings among Democrats have been consistent throughout his tenure. Currently standing at 84%, he began with an 88% mark in February 2009 among voters within his own party. Republicans, not surprisingly, always scored him low, but he has now dropped into the teens among this subset of the electorate. He began with 41% approval ratings among GOP voters, but currently scores only 14% positive. Perhaps most troubling for the president is his standing among Independents. Here, he is substantially weaker after serving two full years than when he first began. Within this group, Mr. Obama initially registered 62% favorable. Today, his score tumbles to 49%. It is within this latter subset that the President’s support will have to substantially grow if he is to win a strong re-election victory 21 months from now.

All of the current Gallup data were accumulated during the January 23-25th period. The sample size contains a rolling average of 1,500 adults.
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Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison to Retire

Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) made official yesterday what has been expected now for years, that she won’t seek re-election in 2012. She twice promised to resign her seat mid-term, only to change her mind as political circumstances became altered.

Prior to running for Governor in 2010, the senator said she would resign in order to challenge fellow Republican Rick Perry. Gov. Perry came to office at the end of 2000, succeeding then-Gov. George W. Bush upon his election as President. Subsequently deciding to serve through the primary, Sen. Hutchison then said she would resign once the nomination was decided. The result: Perry out-polled Hutchison by 20 points, securing re-nomination against his two opponents by winning an outright majority, thereby even avoiding a run-off election. The defeat was a crushing one for Hutchison, who began the race as the most popular elected official in the Lone Star State. After the primary, and adhering to the request of Republican Party leaders who wanted to avoid a costly special Senate election, Hutchison again changed her mind about leaving Washington and decided to serve the remaining portion of her third, and now final, full term in office.

Since Republicans took total control of the state in the 1990s and early 2000s, Democrats have continued to maintain that they can again be competitive in statewide elections. They site the huge Hispanic population (maybe as high as 37% in the new census) and polling data that, as it turns out, has regularly under-estimated Republican strength. This was definitely the story for the closest statewide R vs. D contests during the latter part of the decade: Sen. John Cornyn’s 2008 and Gov. Perry’s 2010 re-election campaigns. Cornyn won a 55-43% victory and Perry’s result was a similar 55-42%, hardly campaigns that can be considered hotly contested.

It is important to remember that Texas has 29 statewide offices, including administrative and judicial positions. All 29 are in Republican hands. The congressional delegation is 23R-9D, and will grow to a total of 36 seats in the next election because of reapportionment; the state Senate Republican margin is 19-12; and, after two Democrats switched parties in the past couple of weeks, the state House is now an overwhelming 101 Republicans to 49 Democrats.

Under this backdrop, an open Texas Senate seat will come to the forefront of the ensuing election cycle. Since Hutchison has been planning to vacate her seat for some time, candidates in both parties have been making moves to position themselves.

When Hutchison said her resignation was imminent, most of the appointment speculation centered around Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. The Texas Lt. Governor, who actively presides over the state Senate, is the nation’s most powerful Lt. Governor. Dewhurst has held the position since 2002, after being elected Land Commissioner in 1998. He was re-elected in 2010 with 62% of the vote. He has yet to indicate whether he will run for the Senate in 2012. Other Republicans who are already in the race are former Secretary of State Roger Williams and Railroad Commissioner (another Texas statewide office) Elizabeth Ames Jones. Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams is also viewed as a sure candidate.

The Democrats are looking to former state Comptroller John Sharp, even though he has lost his past two elections, both for Lt. Governor, against Rick Perry (1998) and versus Dewhurst (2002).

The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite in the general election against presumably Sharp.
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