Tag Archives: Epic MRA

Late Primary Polling in Mo., Mich.

Several polls have just been released about today’s primary elections in Missouri and Michigan.

First, Public Policy Polling (Aug. 4-5; 590 likely Missouri GOP primary voters) gives businessman John Brunner a slight 35-30-25 percent lead over Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO-2) and former state treasurer Sarah Steelman in the Missouri Senate Republican primary. The race is anybody’s game, however. Rep. Akin actually leads Brunner by two points in the category of those most excited to vote. Brunner’s edge is much larger among lower propensity voters, thus accounting for his overall advantage. More upward momentum has been detected for Akin during the last two weeks than Brunner. Steelman, according to the PPP data, is actually losing support in comparison to previous polls of the race during the same period.

In the 1st Congressional District, Survey USA, polling for St. Louis television station KDSK (Aug. 2-4; 490 likely MO-1 Democratic primary voters), gives Rep. Lacy Clay (D) a huge 56-35 percent lead over his Democratic colleague, Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO-3). The two were paired because Missouri lost a seat in national reapportionment. Among African-Americans, who will be the largest demographic sector participating in the primary, Clay leads 81-12 percent.

Turning to Michigan, EPIC-MRA released two congressional polls, both for the Detroit based districts. In the 13th (Aug. 4-5; 800 likely MI-13 Democratic primary voters via automated interviews), 24-term incumbent John Conyers (D) commands a 57-17 percent lead over his nearest rival, state Sen. Glenn Anderson. The remaining three candidates are in single-digits.

In the new Wayne/Oakland County-based 14th CD, Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-9) appears poised to win this incumbent pairing campaign as he leads fellow Rep. Hansen Clarke (D-MI-13) 52-33 percent according to EPIC-MRA (Aug. 4-5; 800 likely MI-14 Democratic primary voters via automated interviews). Even among African-Americans Clarke fares poorly, leading Peters only 38-34 percent. Peters, who is white, hoped to split the black vote among the three African-American candidates and it appears that his strategy is working.

Senate Poll Shockers

A series of surveys was just released for key US Senate races in several states. Two studies produced especially surprising results, those in Florida and North Dakota.

Rasmussen Reports (Nov. 17; 500 likely Florida voters) now gives Rep. Connie Mack IV (R-FL-14) an unexpected 43-39 percent lead over Florida Sen. Bill Nelson (D). This is the first poll of the election cycle that shows Nelson in a deficit position to any potential Republican opponent.

After saying he would not run in March, Rep. Mack did an about-face late last month and his decision appears to be paying off, at least in the short term. Prior to recent polls showing Rep. Mack within two, six, and now leading by four points, Sen. Nelson posted consistent 15-point margins against the other two main Republican candidates, former interim Sen. George LeMieux and ex-state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner.

It was always believed that the Ft. Myers congressman and son of former Sen. Connie Mack III could make this race competitive, and the last three polls certainly confirm that supposition.

In North Dakota, The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released the results of the Mellman Group poll (Nov. 12-16; 600 likely North Dakota voters) it commissioned for newly announced candidate Heidi Heitkamp, the state’s former attorney general. The data give Ms. Heitkamp a 47-42 percent lead over Rep. Rick Berg (R-ND-AL). This is a stunner in that Berg is thought to be the prohibitive favorite to convert the open seat (Sen. Kent Conrad is retiring) for the GOP. North Dakota is projected to be the Republicans’ best opportunity to take a Democratic seat.

Since this tabulation conflicts with other North Dakota polls, it is possible that the survey is an anomaly. In its defense, however, are the presidential numbers. As one would expect, a prospective Republican nominee is ahead of President Obama in the Peace Garden State, even according to these same Mellman Group numbers. Mitt Romney has a 47-33 percent advantage over the President within this polling universe, which is perfectly in line with North Dakota presidential election voting behavior. If further surveys show a similar pattern in this Senate race, a new competitive race could be on the horizon.

According to a brand new Epic MRA poll of the Michigan Senate race (Nov. 13-16; 600 registered Michigan voters), former Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI-2) has decreased his deficit against Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). Their latest survey shows only a six-point 48-42 percent advantage for the two-term Democratic incumbent. This is a net gain of three points for Hoekstra over the firm’s August poll that gave Stabenow a 47-38 percent edge.

The Michigan race is another critical contest for the GOP. Thought to be vulnerable at the beginning of the year, the Republicans were slow to find a credible opponent against the senator, finally convincing Hoekstra to launch a campaign after the former congressman had publicly announced that he would not run.

One of the slower races to take shape is the open Arizona seat of retiring Senate Majority Whip Jon Kyl (R). New polling information is now available for the Republican primary in this state and Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ-6) is off to a big lead, as expected. According to a new Public Policy Polling survey (Nov. 17-20; 400 registered Arizona Republican voters), Flake has a huge 53-7 percent lead over businessman Wil Cardon. Magellan Strategies found a similar pattern. Their latest Arizona study (Nov. 16; 722 registered Arizona Republican voters) gives Flake a similar 55-3 percent margin against Cardon.

Democrats have a large field in the Grand Canyon State, including former Surgeon General Richard Carmona and ex-Arizona Democratic Party chairman Don Bivens. Right now, it appears the race is Flake’s to lose.