Tag Archives: Dennis Kucinich

Super Tuesday: Ohio Races

Super Tuesday marks not only an important day for the Republican presidential campaign, but also kicks off the 2012 congressional elections. Ohio holds its statewide vote on that date, making it the earliest congressional vote in the nation. Originally Texas also was scheduled for March 6, but legal wrangling over redistricting has postponed that primary to much later in the year.

Of Ohio’s 16 congressional districts, a trio of Ohio US House primary contests will, for all intents and purposes, elect new members for the 113th Congress next week:

OH-2: The Schmidt Challenge

In the Cincinnati-anchored 2nd District, four-term Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) faces surgeon Brad Wenstrup and two other minor Republican candidates. Wenstrup challenged Cincinnati Mayor Mark Mallory in 2009 and managed to score 46 percent of the citywide vote. He has not been particularly aggressive in this race against Rep. Schmidt, however, raising slightly under $245,000 for his primary challenge according to the pre-primary Federal Election Commission filing that was due Feb. 15. As revealed in the report, he had only $103,000 left to spend for the final drive. Schmidt, on the other hand, had raised just under $600,000 for the race.

Though Wenstrup has an apparent base in the eastern part of Cincinnati, an area he carried in the mayoral race and which is part of the new OH-2 congressional district, he has little presence in the six rural southwestern Ohio counties that comprise the remainder of the seat. Though Schmidt has never fully solidified her hold on the 2nd District since her original 2005 special election victory when she replaced Sen. Rob Portman (R) as he departed Congress to become President George W. Bush’s US trade ambassador and then budget director, she should comfortably turn back the Wenstrup challenge.

OH-3: Will Kilroy Return?

Turning to the new 3rd District in Columbus, former one-term Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) is attempting to return to Congress in this newly created, heavily Democratic district. In the 2001 redistricting plan, there was no planned Democratic seat in the Columbus area, an odd situation for a major city that has, as the state capital, a large government employee population and hosts a major university (Ohio State). As a result, two seats that were originally intended for Republican incumbents were becoming highly competitive. The 2011 Republican redistricting plan to concede a new open Columbus seat to the Democrats allows the GOP to protect both the 12th (Rep. Pat Tiberi) and the 15th CDs (Rep. Steve Stivers) for the ensuing decade.

Such being the case, next Tuesday’s election will choose the new 3rd District member. Kilroy is being challenged by former state House Minority Leader Joyce Beatty, now in an administration position at Ohio State, and state Rep. Ted Celeste, the brother of former Gov. Richard Celeste.

Kilroy released an early poll giving her a huge lead, but Beatty countered last week saying her internal Public Policy Polling survey places her just one point behind the former congresswoman 34-35 percent. Beatty did not release the actual PPP study, however, so it is difficult to determine its methodology and questionnaire. Celeste is a distant third in all scenarios.

Ms. Beatty, an African-American in a district where blacks account for more than 28 percent of the population and a much greater percentage in a Democratic primary, is a substantial candidate and a threat to derail Kilroy’s comeback attempt. Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman, himself once mentioned as a possible candidate for this congressional seat, has endorsed Beatty, which may prove important in terms of turning out the primary vote.

OH-9: Kaptur vs. Kucinich

The new 9th District, which stretches from Cleveland to Toledo along the Lake Erie shoreline, features a Democratic paired-incumbent contest between Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Dennis Kucinich.

Kaptur represents at least 100,000 additional constituents in the new 9th than does Kucinich. While keeping the larger Cuyahoga communities of Parma (population 77,274) and Lakewood (50,251), Kucinich loses North Olmstead (31,053), Westlake (30,331), and Garfield Heights (27,479). Kaptur, on the other hand, retains her entire Toledo (316,238 inhabitants) base. She also keeps Ottawa and Erie Counties, as well.

Though Kucinich has raised more money during the current election cycle than did Kaptur ($965,000 to $370,000), she has a very large cash-on-hand advantage, due to her many years of service on the important appropriations committee.

Endorsements favor Kaptur. Never representing any part of the Cleveland metropolitan area, the congresswoman has won the Cleveland Plain Dealer newspaper endorsement. This is likely due more to Kucinich’s unpopularity than Kaptur’s positive image but, regardless, this is an important endorsement in a Democratic primary. She also receives public support from Republican former senator and governor George Voinovich. This carries some weight, even in a Democratic primary, because Voinovich was the Mayor of Cleveland before running statewide. His imprimatur provides her one more Cleveland credential. Conversely, Kucinich has been endorsed by the Cuyahoga Democratic Club, Hustler publisher Larry Flynt, singer Willie Nelson, and Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA-4), thus indicating the flavor of the campaign.

Kucinich also is drawing flack about his foray into running from another state. When the national reapportionment was announced and it became known just how poorly Ohio fared, Kucinich, knowing that his seat would become a redistricting casualty, stated that he would not run against another incumbent and actually started searching for open seats in Washington and Hawaii. He said he had done well in those two states during his presidential campaign, and thus had a base of support in each place. This bizarre idea quickly faded, and he “returned” to Cleveland to challenge another Democratic incumbent, after all. But the locals haven’t forgotten.

Now, in his first advertisement of the campaign, a radio ad running only in Cleveland, Kucinich actually attacks “Toledo politics” inferring that the city is corrupt – the place that is now the largest community in his new district.

With the March 6th primary election fast approaching, there is nothing to suggest that anything other than a convincing Kaptur victory will result. Considering Kucinich was only able to muster 50.32 percent of the 2008 Democratic primary vote against four opponents in his own CD-10, it becomes evident that even his Cuyahoga base is weak. It is already becoming clear that Dennis Kucinich will become the first incumbent electoral casualty of the 2012 election season.

Redistricting Updates: Illinois, Ohio & Pennsylvania

A quick update on the redistricting front in a few states:

Illinois

The federal three-judge panel in Illinois rejected the Republican lawsuit against the state’s new 18-district congressional map. This means the Democrats’ maximum map will stand and elections throughout the decade will be conducted in these districts. The GOP’s last option is to appeal this decision. All Voting Rights Act cases are appealed directly to the US Supreme Court. The Democrats could gain as many as four seats in the Land of Lincoln next year.

Ohio

The Ohio Republicans were able to secure a two-thirds vote in each house of their legislature to pass their altered congressional redistricting map. The legislation must now go to Gov. John Kasich (R) for his signature. The new plan only slightly changes the Columbus area and leaves the remaining boundaries intact. The state loses two seats in reapportionment.

Three sets of incumbent pairings will occur. Democrats Marcy Kaptur (D-OH-9) and Dennis Kucinich (D-OH-10) will face each other in new District 9 that stretches from Toledo to Cleveland. Reps. Mike Turner (R-OH-3) and Steve Austria (R-OH-7) are paired in new District 10. And, finally, Reps. Betty Sutton (D-OH-13) and Jim Renacci (R-OH-16) are opposing each other in new District 16. In addition to the pairings, one former member, ex-Rep. Charlie Wilson (D-OH-6), has already announced his intention to seek a re-match with freshman Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH-6) in the revamped 6th District, which will be more friendly to a Republican candidate.

The plan is designed to elect twelve Republicans and four Democrats. The congressional primaries are now re-instated for March 6, as was originally intended. With Texas now almost assuredly moving to later in the year, the Ohio congressional primaries will now be the first in the nation.

Pennsylvania

A day after the proposed Pennsylvania congressional redistricting map was released to the public, it passed through the state Senate, but by only one vote. It must now clear the state House of Representatives and be signed into law by Gov. Tom Corbett (R).

The map is designed to elect possibly as many as 13 Republicans in the 18 districts. Seven of the districts are strongly Republican. In five more, GOP incumbents are present, but President Obama carried the particular district in 2008. The five holding the marginal seats are: Reps. Jim Gerlach (CD 6 – Obama: 53), Pat Meehan (CD 7 – Obama: 51), Mike Fitzpatrick (CD 8 – Obama: 53), Charlie Dent (CD 15 – Obama: 52), and Joe Pitts (CD 16 – Obama: 50). In one seat, the new 12th CD that features a pairing of Democratic Reps. Jason Altmire (D-PA-4) and Mark Critz (D-PA-12), President Obama only tallied 45 percent of the vote, meaning that the winner of what promises to be a tough Democratic primary will also face a highly competitive general election. The Pennsylvania primary is scheduled for May 17.

Redistricting Update

Redistricting action occurred in the following three states during the past week:

CONNECTICUT (current delegation: 5D) – The members of the bi-partisan special legislative committee charged with drawing the new legislative and congressional maps have informed Gov. Dan Malloy (D) that a new committee will have to be authorized. The 30-day work period originally assigned the current panel will expire this Thursday. Once re-appointed, the eight member committee comprised of four Democrats and four Republicans will name a ninth member in order to break any tie that is likely to occur. Gov. Malloy is expected to grant the committee’s request for re-appointment and extension.

OHIO (current delegation: 13R-5D; loses two seats) – The House-passed congressional map is likely to gain state Senate approval this week and then move on to Gov. John Kasich (R) for his signature. Democrats have already pledged to attempt to qualify a citizens referendum to overturn the plan, but history tells us that the chance of successfully implementing such a maneuver is highly doubtful.

The Ohio map appears to be one of the better plans, from their perspective, drawn by a Republican-controlled entity. Pairing the Democrats against each other and adding a new Democratic open seat in Columbus to protect their two area marginal seats proves that they are drawing with a decade-long strategy in mind. The map is designed to deliver a 12R-4D party division. Here’s a look at how things are shaping up in some districts:

• District 3 (Open Seat) – The new 3rd District encompasses most of the city of Columbus and may prove to be the signature district of this map. It is unusual that Republican map drawers would create a new seat and make it Democratic, but that’s exactly what they did … and, it makes sense. Because Reps. Pat Tiberi (R-OH-12) and Steve Stivers (D-OH-15) have increasingly marginal districts (in fact, the Stivers’ seat was held by former Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) for one term), putting a new Democratic seat in a city that houses both a state capital and major university is a smart play. Instead of risking a Republican seat every two years, the plan makes the two aforementioned GOP seats safe for the decade.

• District 8 (House Speaker John Boehner-R) – in what comes as no surprise to anyone, Mr. Boehner gets a safe Cincinnati-area suburban seat similar to the one he currently represents.

• District 9 (Reps. Marcy Kaptur-D and Dennis Kucinich-D) – since Ohio is losing two seats in reapportionment, it is unavoidable that at least four members will battle for two districts. One of the pairings is new District 9, that stretches from Cleveland to Toledo in a long narrow draw that hugs the Lake Erie shoreline. Kucinich, who was looking to run for re-election in either Washington or Hawaii because he said he would not run against a fellow incumbent, will again seek election in Ohio and challenge a colleague.

• District 11 (Rep. Marcia Fudge-D) – it is likely that Ms. Fudge will be the only incumbent Democrat that gets an easy ride to re-election. Comprised of the downtown regions in both Cleveland and Akron, Fudge could conceivably be primaried by Rep. Sutton who currently represents the Akron portion of the district, but such a scenario is unlikely. The 11th will prove to be a safe African-American Democratic seat for Ms. Fudge.

TEXAS (current delegation: 23R-9D; gains four seats) – As expected by many, the US Justice Department, while pre-clearing the recently enacted state Senate and Board of Education maps, has so far failed to approve the congressional and state House plans. DoJ is requesting more information about both maps, but it appears the congressional plan, as submitted, has major legal issues. It is unlikely that the map presented will actually take effect as drawn. The legal proceedings in San Antonio continue as well. Look for more definitive action here as the year draws to a close.

Kucinich Returns to Ohio

When it became clear that Ohio was losing two seats in reapportionment and that Rep. Dennis Kucinich’s (D-OH-10) Cleveland district would be one of the two collapsed, the gadfly politician and former presidential candidate began searching for a new district … in Washington state and Hawaii.

Mr. Kucinich said he did not want to run against another incumbent, and he “did well” in those two places during his presidential run, so he was testing the waters for an open seat contest in the pair of states. Obviously, the Washington and Hawaii local Democratic activists and partisans didn’t think much of his idea, so he is returning to Ohio to seek re-election after all.

Now that the just unveiled Ohio redistricting map places he and Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH-9) together in a new 9th district that stretches from Cleveland to Toledo, Kucinich is changing his mind and will challenge a fellow incumbent. Ms. Kaptur, first elected in 1982, retains all of her Toledo political base and most of the Lake Erie area that attaches her territory to Cleveland, but 57 percent of the new 9th’s registered Democrats currently reside in Kucinich’s 10th CD. For his part, the congressman said, “I have been praying that I could continue to serve my Cleveland-area constituency, and it looks like I have a chance. That is all I could have hoped for.” Though his prayers may have been answered, we still have to rate Kaptur as the early favorite.